How the Memphis Grizzlies Can Get Right in the 2015 NBA Playoffs
While the Memphis Grizzlies are hobbling into the playoffs, they maintain elements of the squad that could bury recent postseason failures.
Resigning to the thought that the Grizzlies, which are 54-27 and have dropped from second to sixth in the Western Conference, will inevitably fall in the first round with four of their top six players injured is tempting.
"I almost want to give up on this Grizzlies season," CBSSports.com's Matt Moore sighed during Monday's Eye on Basketball podcast.
Injuries compromise the Grizzlies' title chances, but this is the same team that adheres to a blue-collar ethic, wreaks havoc defensively and defeated a No. 1 seed in a 2011 first-round series (San Antonio Spurs) and the 2013 Western Conference semifinals (Oklahoma City Thunder).
Get Healthy
Well-being is the primary objective as the Grizzlies hope to survive the Western Conference bracket.
Memphis has stayed afloat defensively during Tony Allen's eight-game absence resulting from a strained right hamstring, allowing 100 points twice in that span. His rest helps ensure they can attack opponents in the playoffs.
Allen, a three-time All-Defensive Team member and the league leader in steals rate at 4.1 percent, will set the tone, locking down the leading opposing ball-handler. The 33-year-old held Kevin Durant below 43 percent shooting six times in the past two postseasons.
Fox Sports' Rob Fischer tweeted that Allen is ruled out for the finale against the Indiana Pacers.
Marc Gasol suffered a sprained left ankle in a 94-86 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers on Saturday, but he saw 21 minutes as the Grizzlies fell 111-107 to the Golden State Warriors on Monday.
The Commercial Appeal's Ronald Tillery noted Gasol "clearly favored the injury" during the Grizzlies' sixth loss in the last 10 games.
Gasol should receive real rest in the finale against the Indiana Pacers on Wednesday in order that he can play like the league's best all-around center.
Given that the Pacers' five-game winning streak that put them in control of the Eastern Conference's eighth playoff spot came mostly against poor East teams, Memphis can afford to send Kosta Koufos against Roy Hibbert. Koufos is a powerful, disciplined defender who pulls down 11.3 boards per 36 minutes, 1.2 more than Hibbert.
Jeff Green is a valuable complementary scorer, averaging 13 points per game in 44 appearances for the Grizzlies since being acquired via trade from the Boston Celtics. He has played with back spasms since leaving a game against the Washington Wizards on April 4. He's posted 12 points per game on 38 percent from the field in four contests since then.
Grizzlies TV play-by-play analyst Pete Pranica tweeted that Green is off the injury report.
Mike Conley hasn't been right down the stretch as he's fought through an array of injuries, most recently missing the past three games with a right foot sprain. Since the All-Star break, he's posted 13.4 points per game on 41.9 percent shooting.
Conley told Tillery on Saturday, "Once I can put pressure on my foot, and run and cut without hesitating, I can play."
Moore raised the issue of Conley's ability to make an impact in the playoffs, saying "there's a very good chance he won't even be 80 percent in the playoffs."
He also noted that when Conley played through injuries, it "put more stress on the offense. That [led] to bickering. That hurt team chemistry."
If Conley stays out through the end of the regular season, resulting in a week-and-a-half off before the playoffs, he should be somewhat helpful. But he'll need to work these playoffs differently.
Changing Conley's Approach
Between his four-game absence from March 12 to 17 and his current one, Conley slowed somewhat. In 10 contests, he took 11 shots per game, 1.6 less than his season average, taking 37 percent of them from three-point range.
That brought a bounce for Conley, who made 39 percent from beyond the arc after connecting on just 29.2 percent from Jan. 14 to March 11.
Generally, the 27-year-old enjoys attacking the paint while also taking a significant number of three-pointers. This season, he's taken 27.6 percent of attempts at the rim and 31.4 percent from beyond the arc.
Watching him drive to the basket isn't easy, as his 6'1", 180-pound frame collides with larger defenders and doesn't always fall safely.
Considering Conley's ginger condition, he should take a share of three-pointers in the playoffs comparable to that which he's attempted lately. That will save his body from contact, reducing the risk of further injury.
Also, it will help open the offense, bringing attention away from the post, where Gasol and Zach Randolph work, and could boost Memphis' perimeter scoring.
Indeed, Conley shot 23.1 percent from long range in the past two postseasons. But that wasn't his focal point, as he took 33 percent at the rim and 52.5 percent overall inside 10 feet, compared with 28.6 from downtown.
Having their No. 3 scorer and leader in three-point attempts play a larger role in that area could help a longtime sore spot.
Reasonable Outside Shooting
The Grizzlies haven't succeeded from long range in the stretch run, but that doesn't mean they should shy away from it like the past few postseasons.
Memphis has shot 32.3 percent from downtown since Jan. 14 after making 35.8 percent in the first 37 games. Among the slumping three-point shooters, Courtney Lee hit 28.4 percent from Jan. 19 to April 4 after draining 48.6 percent in his first 37 contests. He's bounced back in the past four games, nailing 6-of-10 from long range.
Taking note of his 15 points with two of three treys made, the Memphis Flyer's Kevin Lipe called it "a reminder of how important he is to this team's hopes to accomplish something this postseason."
Green, who is an inconsistent shooter, can help sometimes on the outside, as he has made 36.6 percent from long range for the Grizzlies.
Vince Carter hasn't been pleasing this season, making 30.3 percent from downtown. He's improved recently, making 38 percent in the past 14 games.
The 38-year-old will be a threat, since he takes most of his shots on the perimeter and drained 48.4 percent from long range in the playoffs for the Dallas Mavericks last year.
As previously discussed, the Grizzlies simply need a fair amount of deep shooting to balance the efforts by Gasol and Randolph on the inside. The Grizzlies were hurt during seven-game series losses to the Thunder in last year's first round and the 2011 Western Conference semifinals as they shot below 31 percent.
In those clashes, as well as their sweep at the hands of the Spurs in the 2013 Western Conference Finals, opposing defenders focused on Memphis' inside action due to a lack of serious three-point shooting.
A willingness by head coach Dave Joerger to enable outside shooting will be one step toward easing pressure on his big men.
Give Randolph and Gasol Room to Work
That Randolph and Gasol will key Memphis' playoff run is a given. They were the Grizzlies' top scorers the past two postseasons. Gasol and Randolph combined for 37.8 and 35.5 points per game, respectively, in the 2013 and 2014 postseasons.
Randolph is priming for the playoffs, averaging 16.4 points per 36 minutes in the past eight games while putting the struggling offense on his shoulders with a usage rate near 24 percent.
Randolph is getting an outsized number of touches and facilitating action.
While the Grizzlies require Green's help with outside shooting to balances Gasol and Randolph, they also need him to ease off. Green's high-volume shot-taking takes away from the read-and-react Spaniard.
Also, according to NBA.com, Gasol shoots 4.4 percent better when Green is off the floor. Allen's absence makes it difficult, but a chunk of Green's minutes should come when Gasol is sitting so that Gasol can get more shot opportunities and Green takes advantage of situations in which Memphis has fewer shooters on the floor.
While this addresses part of the problem, Joerger knows a larger issue lies in Gasol's lack of aggression. Gasol has averaged 15.2 points on 12 shots per game since Jan. 24, compared with his season average of 17.4 points on 13.2 field-goal attempts per game.
The Commercial Appeal's Chris Herrington quoted Joerger as saying, "He is so valuable, and I'm always pushing him to be in attack mode and to stay aggressive."
Granted, Gasol's ankle might demand that Randolph takes the lead offensively. Still, Gasol's switch must turn on when the playoffs arrive, even if Joerger goads him.
Conclusion
No matter where the Grizzlies land in the Western Conference race, their chances for a deep run are tenuous with the current health of Allen, Gasol, Conley and Green. Additional rest this week could help them compete.
Since Conley's typical attacking style will be untenable in these playoffs, Memphis should protect his body by forcing him to shoot from the outside more. That will help a necessary effort for better three-point results than they've had in recent playoff appearances.
If moderately improved health and outside shooting combines with the Grizzlies' grinding defense and a scoring barrage by Gasol and Randolph, they may realize the championship that eluded them the past few years.
Statistics are current through April 13 games. Unless otherwise noted, advanced metrics come from basketball-reference.com.
Tom Firme is a Memphis Grizzlies featured columnist for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @TFirme.
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