How Seas Could Part for San Antonio Spurs
Even amid a March in which they've won eight of their 10 games, the San Antonio Spurs are uncharacteristically poised to start the postseason on the road—a No. 6 seed in a Western Conference stacked with would-be contenders.
And there's nothing certain about that No. 6 seed. With two meetings against the Dallas Mavericks this week alone, head coach Gregg Popovich's squad could find itself back in the seventh spot soon enough.
But there's increasingly reason to believe this iteration of said squad is just as good as last season's championship edition.
What if everything goes just right again, if the stars align for another picture-perfect postseason run?
There's hope for San Antonio—particularly on the heels of Sunday's convincing 114-95 win against the Eastern Conference-best Atlanta Hawks. This may not be a franchise in need of statement games, but now would be a pretty good time for such a thing.
"For whatever reason, we haven't had the same rhythm like in years past," point guard Tony Parker told reporters after the contest. "It felt good to get one against a very good team."
It was the eighth time San Antonio has scored at least 112 points this month, and the 30 assists certainly didn't hurt.
"We had a good start, shot the ball well and ball movement was great again tonight," Parker added. "It was one of those games where we played very well."
It was one of those games that makes one wonder whether this repeat bid might turn out differently from the other four (failed) attempts in 2000, 2004, 2006 and 2008. When the Spurs offense clicks like it has this month, they're a formidable contender—regardless of what the standings happen to say.
Finishing Healthy
The West's top two seeds are almost certainly beyond reach, and catching the Houston Rockets at No. 3 seems somewhat unlikely—though San Antonio is only behind by two games at the moment.
The Spurs could claim home-court advantage as a fifth seed if they were to, for example, have a better record than the Portland Trail Blazers, who can't fall below the fourth seed if they win their division.
That would be ideal.
But it's not this team's first priority right now. Not after a season that's been so thoroughly derailed by injuries to Parker, Kawhi Leonard, Tiago Splitter and Patty Mills. Manu Ginobili's most recent ankle ailment adds to the list, though perhaps not for long.
"Yeah, I thought it was worse when it happened," the sixth man told MySanAntonio.com's Mike Monroe this week. "It hurt a lot, but a couple days later it was much better."
More than any win or loss, this rotation's health is the first step to a successful repeat bid. Popovich can't control where his team lands in the standings, but he can conservatively monitor minutes as he always has—all while trying to preserve the momentum that's been built this month.
The injury gods are always willing and able to throw some curveballs, but that's true for every team. More than at any time this season, however, this San Antonio roster is healthy and in rhythm.
It's showing collectively and individually.
Role Players Keep Rolling
Parker and Leonard have returned to form, but importantly, others are following suit.
Splitter scored a season-high 23 points on Sunday afternoon as he continued his best stretch of the season. The 30-year-old is averaging 14.2 points and 7.2 rebounds through his last five appearances, capably shouldering the interior burden Tim Duncan has carried for much of the season.
| Date (OPP) | MIN | PTS | FGM-FGA | REB | AST | BLK | STL |
| 3/15 (MIN) | 20 | 12 | 5-6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 3/17 (NY) | 28 | 12 | 5-10 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 3/18 (MIL) | 19 | 6 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 3/20 (BOS) | 25 | 18 | 8-10 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| 3/22 (ATL) | 27 | 23 | 10-14 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Boris Diaw is again resembling the versatile, aggressive reserve who made such a notable impact during last season's NBA Finals. The 12.2 points he's averaged over his last five contests sit a full four points higher than his season average.
Even Marco Belinelli is getting in on the act, making the most of his increased role while Ginobili's sidelined. He's scored in double figures four times in his last five outings, converting on 40.9 percent of his three-point attempts during that span.
This team has never been about the heroic contributions of one or two superstars.
It's the stylistic antithesis of the Oklahoma City Thunder, an ensemble operation in which the contributions from Splitter, Diaw and Belinelli are nothing if not essential.
Six Spurs scored in double figures against the Hawks—and Parker wasn't one of them. That's a sign that the system is humming along as expected, that nothing's being forced, that the supporting cast is still capable of overachieving on a regular basis.
If the recent understudy success becomes a trend, it would level a playing field on which San Antonio somehow seems disadvantaged. The rest is up to fate and stuff.
The Guessing Game
The No. 6 seed probably isn't where the Spurs want to be.
At the moment, it would mean a first-round series against the lethal Rockets. No one should want any part of that, not with the MVP-caliber season James Harden's having. Not with a healthy Dwight Howard patrolling the paint.
But let's assume the Spurs avoid that fate by beating out the Los Angeles Clippers for a No. 5 seed. That might mean an opening-round series against the Trail Blazers, perhaps with home-court advantage.
That's a different story, particularly with Arron Afflalo replacing Wesley Matthews (torn Achilles tendon) as Portland's starting shooting guard for the remainder of the season. The Spurs quickly dispatched Portland in last season's conference semifinals, and they could do so a round earlier this time.
There is some bad news about this so-called best-case scenario, and that's what happens next.
Presumably, the fifth-seeded Spurs would then face the league-best Golden State Warriors, currently 33-2 at home. Fortunately, San Antonio accounted for one of those home losses, so there's at least some template for pulling off an upset.
Philosophically, these teams aren't all that different. They're both two-way operations outfitted with deep rosters and plenty of shooters. They move the ball effectively and have role players who do all those little things.
Golden State has had the better season, but San Antonio has a lot of winning pedigree on its side. Come playoff time, the Spurs could be capable of doing the unthinkable—even in hostile territory.
If so, they have to hope the Memphis Grizzlies are up next. They've beaten San Antonio twice in three tries this season, but it took them three overtimes to do so on one occasion. The Grizzlies are much-improved this season, but the Spurs' superior three-point arsenal would likely prove decisive.
Yes, there's a whole lot of speculation involved, but this is doable.
If Kevin Durant is indeed done for the season—The Associated Press (h/t The New York Times) suggests this is likely—his Thunder probably won't last long. That's one less contender in a mix that's been wide-open all season.
A mix in which the Spurs could still feature quite prominently, if everything goes according to plan.
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
