Dwight Howard's Pending Return Will Keep Houston Rockets in 2015 Title Picture
The Houston Rockets have figured out how to survive—thrive, even—in the regular season without Dwight Howard.
But the playoffs will bring about more challenging tests, ones that can only be solved by Superman patrolling the paint.
Howard has been missing in action since a knee injury forced him off the floor on Jan. 23, but he feels like he's closing in on his return.
"I have been feeling pretty good," Howard said Wednesday, per Jenny Dial Creech of the Houston Chronicle. "I had some pretty good days of practice this week."
Howard hasn't committed to a return date but feels that he'll back on the floor sooner than later.
Still, this narrative is far from over. During Howard's initial return, he doesn't expect to see more than 20 to 25 minutes his first few times out, per Creech. And he doesn't plan on playing both games of any back-to-back sets for the remainder of the year.
This is something the Rockets will have to monitor closely. And even with the season approaching the stretch run, there's no way to speed up the process.
But each passing day is another opportunity missed to start scraping off his rust. And there's likely to be plenty of it after what could be a two-month layoff.
"No one hits the ground running," coach Kevin McHale said, per CBS Houston's Howard Chen. "I wish that was the case because I’d feel a lot better about it. I’ve seen great players take two months off and come back and it takes them awhile."
It's anyone's guess how long it will take Howard to get back up to speed. Regardless of how loudly this season's clock ticks, the Rockets will be at the mercy of his body.
But the silver lining in all of this is that the big man's worth the wait. As well as Houston has played without him, it's noticeably better when he is suited up.
| With Howard | 22 | 10 | .688 | 104.3 | 97.4 |
| Without Howard | 23 | 12 | .657 | 102.9 | 101.0 |
To contextualize those numbers, the Rockets essentially have the league's best defense and second-highest net efficiency rating when Howard plays. When he doesn't, those rankings slip to 11th and 14th, respectively.
Not to overstate the obvious here, but the 6'11" eight-time All-Star is kind of a big deal.
"It's hard to imagine the Rockets as a true contender without him," wrote Sports Illustrated's Alex Hampl.
And he isn't the only one who feels that way.
"As strong as [James] Harden's play has been up until this point, the Rockets' title hopes could ultimately be decided on whether their other marquee player is ready for the stretch run," wrote Basketball Insiders' Lang Greene.
Credit James Harden's offensive mastery (26.7 points, 7.0 assists per game) for holding Houston together without Howard. But the big guy plays just as pivotal role in the team's defensive success, the side of the ball where the Rockets have done their best work.
Terrence Jones is no slouch defensively. In fact, he has tallied more blocks than Howard (1.7 to 1.4) and been nearly as effective guarding the rim (45.4 opponents' field-goal percentage at the rim to Howard's 45.3).
But Jones is also two inches shorter and more than 20 pounds lighter than Howard. Given the behemoths potentially awaiting the Rockets in the Western Conference playoffs—Marc Gasol, Tim Duncan, DeAndre Jordan, Andrew Bogut, etc.—they'll need all the size they can get.
"Howard's presence in the paint is essential," wrote ESPN Insider's Tom Haberstroh. "Even though he's not blocking shots like he did in his Orlando days, Howard's unique combination of strength, wingspan and agility has bothered opponents all season long."
And while this has been Howard's lowest-scoring season since his sophomore campaign, he's still Houston's most reliable offensive option behind Harden. Jones can light the lamp as a pick-and-roll screener or face-up scorer, and Donatas Motiejunas possesses a special blend of post-up skills and perimeter proficiency.
But the Rockets' young bigs are as volatile as you'd expect third-year players to be. Howard brings consistent production that his frontcourt mates can't match.
This isn't a call to sound the sirens across Space City. If Howard comes back healthy, both he and the Rockets could be better off for the time he's missed.
His statistical "hits"—he's still one of only four players averaging at least 16 points, 10.5 rebounds and a block per game—have happened for a reason. He hasn't had the same bounce in his legs all season, but this recovery process could help him get it back.
"I'm a little bit more explosive right now," Howard said recently, per Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle and Bleacher Report. "All season long, I've been battling back from an injury. It was tough for me to stay in shape and also play at a high level."
As good as Howard's been, there's substantial room for improvement. And because the Rockets needed to call upon the likes of Jones, Motiejunas and Josh Smith without him, he should be returning to a better club than the one he left.
In other words, the Rockets haven't come close to hitting their ceiling. They've only had the Jones-Howard pairing available in four games this season—and outscored their opponents by an absurd 29.8 points per 100 possessions during those 88 minutes.
The defensive potential for that tandem is incredible. The fact that McHale can surround those two with dogged defenders like Patrick Beverley, Trevor Ariza and Corey Brewer is almost unfair.
And don't discount the impact this frontcourt could have at the opposite end. With gravitational forces like Howard and Jones pulling defenders to the middle, Harden and Houston's high-volume marksmen will have more room to operate on the perimeter.
"Howard and Jones combined should be able to man the post together well enough to keep defenses honest and allow the three-point shooters space to bury their shots," wrote Bleacher Report's Kelly Scaletta. "And that, in turn, should open up all kinds of room for Harden to wreak all kinds of havoc."
The upside in front of this team is massive.
But all of these scenarios—along with Houston's title hopes—can only exist in the hypothetical realm until (if?) Howard returns to his previous level.
There's too much depth out West for the Rockets to survive without him at his best. They could still enter the Big Dance, but any hope of taking center stage would be lost.
Even with Howard, Houston's playoff run will set up like a minefield. If current positions hold, the Rockets would have to get past the Los Angeles Clippers, slay the Golden State Warriors and stop whomever emerges from the other side of the bracket (possibly the Memphis Grizzlies, Portland Trail Blazers or San Antonio Spurs, among others).
That, folks, is what they call murderers' row. Or in this business, life in the NBA's Wild West.
Having Howard at full strength guarantees nothing, but it at least keeps Houston's championship window open. Without him, that same window would be sealed shut and boarded over.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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