Best and Worst First-Round Scenarios for Top Projected 2015 NBA Playoff Teams
Every high-end playoff squad has a weak spot or two—even the seemingly bulletproof Golden State Warriors, Cleveland Cavaliers and Atlanta Hawks.
And you can bet sneaky low seeds will seek out those frailties, hoping to exploit mismatches, capitalize on hard-to-spot vulnerabilities and ultimately spoil stellar regular seasons with early playoff dismissals.
Of course, at the same time, there are opponents those same top teams would love to see come April.
Even the very best postseason-bound clubs prefer to keep the early steps in their title pursuits as easy as possible. Based on season records, statistics and strategic mismatches, we'll figure out which pushovers the top squads should be hoping to face.
Plenty could change between now and the first round, so we'll avoid scrutinizing tiebreakers and specific seeding. We'll also include teams that are currently just outside the playoff picture where applicable.
Let's dig into every top playoff team's dream and nightmare matchups.
Golden State Warriors
1 of 8
Best: New Orleans Pelicans
No disrespect to the Pelicans, who'll be dangerous as long as Anthony Davis is healthy enough to be on the floor, but of the Warriors' available options, New Orleans is the least dangerous.
Golden State crushed the Pelicans, 112-85, on Dec. 4, getting 19 points and 11 assists from Stephen Curry—and that was when the Pelicans featured a healthy Jrue Holiday. Davis went off for 30 points and 15 rebounds in that contest, and if you're looking for ways to make a case for the Pelicans, you could cite the fact that Eric Gordon sat out with an injury.
But it's hard to envision him making up for a 27-point deficit.
Toss in the 128-122 road victory the Warriors logged on Dec. 14—which was the second leg of a brutal back-to-back set and which Andrew Bogut sat out (the Warriors are 9-6 without the Aussie this year)—and it's clear the Pelicans don't have the personnel or experience to put up much of a fight.
Worst: Oklahoma City Thunder
The Dubs are 3-1 against the Thunder this year, but virtually every game features an asterisk. Neither Kevin Durant nor Russell Westbrook played in the first matchup, a surprisingly narrow 91-86 Warriors win on Nov. 23. Then, Durant sprained his ankle and couldn't play in the second half of Golden State's 114-109 victory on Dec. 18.
KD had 30 points in that first half, by the way.
A 117-91 win on Jan. 5 was the Warriors' most impressive effort in the series, but Durant and Westbrook combined for 8-of-37 shooting from the field. As good as Golden State's defense is, that kind of inaccuracy isn't likely to reoccur.
Bogut sat out on Jan. 16, and Durant pumped in 36 points on 18 shots while Westbrook registered a 17-point, 16-assist, 15-rebound triple-double in OKC's lone win against the Dubs this year.
Let's not overthink this.
Even if we completely ignore the season series, the fact remains that the Thunder—when healthy—can toss two of the five scariest offensive forces in the league at the Dubs. That makes Oklahoma City just about everyone's worst-case first-round matchup.
Memphis Grizzlies
2 of 8
Best: Dallas Mavericks
Dallas has been as shaky as any playoff team in the West lately, and if it were to settle into the No. 7 spot, the Grizzlies would welcome it. Don't be fooled by their 129-99 thrashing of the Los Angeles Clippers on March 13; it came immediately after a humiliating 33-point loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on March 10.
Dirk Nowitzki's mobility has diminished noticeably, which makes him less of a matchup problem for the Grizzlies than he once was. The Rajon Rondo experiment continues to disappoint, and Monta Ellis may find it difficult to operate Dallas' pick-and-roll sets when Tony Allen is taking up residence inside his jersey.
Plus, Marc Gasol's offensive awakening has featured more perimeter shots than ever; nearly 26 percent of his field-goal attempts on the year have come from beyond 16 feet. That means Tyson Chandler can't hang around the rim to help on drives. If he does, Gasol could eat up the Mavs from mid-range.
Despite all those advantages for the Grizz, Dallas still managed to win one of the three meetings between these clubs this year. In this season's West, even the softest matchups can beat you.
Worst: San Antonio Spurs
Tony Parker and Mike Conley are headed toward opposite poles on the health spectrum, with the former finally getting over his hamstring issues and the latter hobbled recently by the third sprain of his right ankle this season.
Both players are critical to their teams' offensive success, but Conley means a great deal to the Memphis Grizzlies defense as well. If he's at something less than 100 percent in a hypothetical first-round meeting, Memphis could be in serious trouble.
Up front, Gasol is having the best year of his career, but Tim Duncan has the size and smarts to match up ably against the big Spaniard.
Looking past the individual matchups and Memphis' 2-1 advantage in the season series, we can simplify things this way: Since March 1, the Spurs' net rating of plus-14.6 points per 100 possessions is tied for first in the league, per NBA.com. Memphis' figure of minus-1.5 points per 100 possessions ranks 17th.
Apparently, Parker's and Conley's physical health isn't the only thing headed in opposite directions; these two teams' overall trajectories are, too.
Portland Trail Blazers
3 of 8
Best: Houston Rockets
The Portland Trail Blazers' injury issues make it hard to peg them as a favorite in almost any series. Though their huge cushion as division leaders means they won't fall below the No. 4 seed in the West, missing Wesley Matthews and trotting out banged-up versions of LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum make them seem more like a low-seeded spoiler than anything else.
This is why their best bet to advance would be to face the team they knocked off a year ago.
Aldridge was a matchup nightmare, and Damian Lillard established his clutch reputation with a series-deciding three against the Houston Rockets in 2014's first round. Though the Rockets are dangerous, the Blazers would at least have some semblance of a mental edge in this.
Don't expect them to pack it in after Matthews' injury, either, per John Canzano of The Oregonian:
"Batum is rising to meet the moment. LaMarcus Aldridge is playing with fire in his jump shot. Damian Lillard just walks around, flicking chips off his shoulder. But its the little things, the snarl in Steve Blake's dribble, the arrows in Arron Afflalo's quiver, Meyers Leonard making it rain threes when Aldridge was in foul trouble against Houston, and Freeland refusing to be headbutted by Shawne Williams without head butting back.
"
Nothing's going to be easy for Portland, but beating Houston at least seems possible.
Worst: Los Angeles Clippers
The Blazers' only win against the Los Angeles Clippers this year was a 98-93 overtime affair on March 4, which came before Matthews' injury and featured a Clips team missing Blake Griffin, Jamal Crawford and Matt Barnes.
The key advantage for L.A. is at the point, where Chris Paul held Lillard to 1-of-13 shooting in that recent contest while scoring 36 himself. The Blazers don't have anyone to handle Paul, especially with Matthews out of the rotation.
Paul, on the other hand, is capable of shutting Lillard down completely.
With Griffin healthy enough to flirt with a triple-double in his first game back from elbow surgery, the Clippers are only getting stronger.
Portland must avoid a matchup with Los Angeles at all costs.
Houston Rockets
4 of 8
Best: Dallas Mavericks
Houston has quietly been vulnerable against a number of Western powerhouses this year, which makes the Mavericks its best matchup almost by default.
The Rockets have taken two of three from Dallas this season, and Harden has burned the Mavericks with 47.1 percent accuracy from long distance in those contests. Among the Mavs' weaknesses is the lack of a shutdown perimeter stopper, which basically spells disaster against the Beard.
Plus, with Terrence Jones playing well since returning from nerve issues that cost him almost three months, Houston possesses a level of frontcourt athleticism and versatility Dallas can't match.
Worst: Portland Trail Blazers
The Rockets are 0-4 against the Warriors and 0-2 against the Pelicans in 2014-15. Fortunately for them, the current playoff seeding won't change enough to bring either of those foes into play.
That leaves the Blazers.
The reasons why Houston is a good matchup for Portland work in reverse here. The Rockets don't really know what to do with Aldridge, and Batum has had success against Harden (holding him to four second-half points in the two teams' March 11 meeting, for example).
"I think every team talks about the same things when they get ready to play James Harden," Blazers coach Terry Stotts told reporters after Batum's efforts. "They say make him take tough shots, don't foul him, don't put him on the line, all the same things. Some nights you're able to do it better than others."
Though Matthews won't be involved, the Blazers can still bother Harden better than most—thanks to Batum.
Portland should have confidence against Houston—both because of last year's result and the fact that it has beaten the Rockets twice in three tilts this season.
Atlanta Hawks
5 of 8
Best: Miami Heat
You might think an opponent with less of a recent postseason pedigree, like the Charlotte Hornets or Boston Celtics, would be the easiest foe for the East-leading Atlanta Hawks to take down. And if we're being objective, the Hawks probably could make short work of both Charlotte and Boston.
But Atlanta owns the Heat.
The Hawks are 3-0 against Miami this year with a pair of double-digit victories. They beat the Heat twice in the first half with a healthy Chris Bosh, which means the best representation of their future matchups would probably be the closer 93-91 win on Feb. 28. After all, that game featured Hassan Whiteside, now a major piece of Miami's rotation, snatching 24 rebounds against the Hawks' undersized front line.
New addition Goran Dragic was also involved.
Of course, Atlanta rested Pero Antic, Al Horford, DeMarre Carroll and Jeff Teague in that one, which means it's not a great gauge of future performance. It also means the Hawks don't need to be anywhere near full strength to handle the Heat.
It's tempting to look at the backcourt duo of Dragic and Dwyane Wade and give the Heat a chance. If those two get going, perhaps an upset is possible. But with Whiteside's bad behavior cropping up and no Bosh for the rest of the year, the Heat aren't equipped to challenge Atlanta.
Worst: Indiana Pacers
I'll admit it: This doesn't make any sense.
The Hawks have beaten the Pacers three straight times this year, Roy Hibbert is ill-equipped to chase around Atlanta's mobile, jump-shooting bigs, and even if Paul George returns, it's hard to see Indy scoring enough to keep up with the East's top team.
But Indiana has been so good lately.
It is 13-3 since Feb. 1, and only the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors have higher net ratings since then. The Pacers are not the same team Atlanta stomped by double digits on Nov. 1, Dec. 8 and Jan. 21.
George Hill is healthy, and things are clicking under Frank Vogel again. If the Pacers wind up in the No. 8 spot, Atlanta had better be wary.
Call it a hunch.
Cleveland Cavaliers
6 of 8
Best: Charlotte Hornets
The Cleveland Cavaliers have been on a tear for the last two months, which makes them a heavy favorite against any potential first-round foe.
It's just that they'll really wear out the Hornets.
Charlotte figures to play a pair of small, defensively challenged guards big minutes, and neither has much hope of staying with Kyrie Irving. Perhaps Michael Kidd-Gilchrist will bother LeBron James more than most, but there's no one on the Hornets roster who'll force LBJ to expend energy on defense.
The matchups are just bad for Charlotte. Cleveland is deeper, more skilled and has handled the Hornets in all three meetings this season. And you just know James would love to stick it to Lance Stephenson one more time.
If the No. 2 vs. No. 7 matchup shakes out like this, it won't be pretty.
Worst: Indiana Pacers
There are those pesky Pacers again, only this time, instead of looking past the stats to justify their toughness against the Hawks, we can lean on them against the Cavs.
Indy has taken two of three from Cleveland this season, and we know the Pacers have plenty of experience pushing James-led teams to the limit.
If Paul George is somehow healthy enough to take on the challenge, he could give LeBron some trouble. And even if he's not, Indiana has the kind of hard-earned continuity and familiarity with a system that Cleveland, good as it is, is still developing.
Toronto Raptors
7 of 8
Best: Washington Wizards
It's tempting to slot the Milwaukee Bucks here, mostly because of their lack of playoff experience and the potential for them to succumb to the "just happy to be here" mindset that could accompany their ahead-of-schedule postseason arrival.
But the Toronto Raptors have beaten the Washington Wizards all three times they've played this season, and only Washington can rival the Raps' second-half instability.
Toronto has fallen apart of late, and it's not totally accurate to say anybody is an easy matchup for it. Washington lost nine of its 12 contests in February but has righted the ship a bit in March, which makes this pick flimsy.
Still, as shaky as Toronto has been, the Wizards haven't presented a problem this year.
Worst: Chicago Bulls
Even if Derrick Rose isn't back (or at least back at something close to full strength) by the first round, the Bulls are going to create serious problems for the Raptors.
Jimmy Butler torched them for 27 points, 11 rebounds, four assists and five blocks in a 129-120 Bulls win on Dec. 22. Before that, he got them for 21 points, nine rebounds and six assists in a Nov. 13 win in Toronto. Pau Gasol lit up the frontcourt for 27 in that one as well.
Rose was a factor in both contests, but if he's sidelined, Chicago should have more than enough to wear down Toronto.
Butler, of course, is injured himself. But assuming his elbow presents no problems (and the rest of the Bulls get right—looking at you, Taj Gibson), this could have all the makings of a short series.
Remember, Toronto still often goes without Jonas Valanciunas in late-game situations. That's not going to work against a Bulls front line that features Gasol, Gibson and Joakim Noah.
Chicago Bulls
8 of 8
Best: Milwaukee Bucks
Chicago has had no trouble handling Milwaukee this season, running up a 3-0 record on the strength of some brutally efficient defensive efforts.
Milwaukee's highest score in those three contests? Eighty-seven points.
The low: 71.
The Bucks have actually been stingier on D than the Bulls overall this year; Milwaukee ranks second in the Association in defensive rating, per NBA.com, while Chicago sits at No. 13. But the Bucks struggle to score, and Chicago knows how to exploit incomplete offenses.
Adding Michael Carter-Williams could prove disastrous, as the Bulls already overloaded strong-side scheme can now cheat even farther away from MCW. And with Giannis Antetokounmpo's shot still a work in progress, the Bulls can pay extra attention to sealing off the lane.
Milwaukee won't know what hit it.
Worst: Charlotte Hornets
Believe it or not, the Hornets have given the Bulls problems this season.
Charlotte owns a 2-1 mark against Chicago, and no one player is overwhelmingly responsible. Six Hornets average at least 12 points per game against the Bulls, with Mo Williams putting up 17.5 to lead the bunch. It's hard to be certain, but there's a chance that Charlotte's attack-by-committee plan makes it difficult for the Bulls to zero in on one particular matchup.
Both Williams and Kemba Walker are willing to shoot the second they touch the ball, and Al Jefferson still gives even the best big-man defenders trouble in the mid- and low post.
The Bulls likely won't face Charlotte in the first round. The Hornets would have to make up serious ground to reach the No. 6 seed, and the Bulls probably won't threaten to overtake the second or third spot.
That's good news for Chicago.
