Last-Minute Guide to New England Patriots' Free Agency

With the media hemorrhaging rumors during the legal tampering period, it feels as though free agency has already begun.  As Super Bowl champions with several high-profile free agents, the New England Patriots will be natural targets this offseason.  Whereas a few teams are flush with cash to spend due to the rising salary cap, the Patriots' lack of cap space will make it difficult to retain some vital core components of their roster.

By now, you know the major storylines surrounding New England's free-agency prospects.  The Patriots have kept Devin McCourty in tow by adjusting to the market, and an organization that hates compromising will likely need to do so again to keep Darrelle Revis.  Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley are likely gone, while secondary contributors like Akeem Ayers and Jonathan Casillas may chase bigger roles.

However, with all the focus on the Patriots' own free agents, there hasn't been nearly enough discourse about how they may replace whatever losses they incur.  Opportunity cost is an important variable to keep in mind—even if someone like McCourty departs, the $9-10 million in savings could afford Bill Belichick to build the coveted depth he desires.  It won't necessarily be a popular decision, but if the Pats are to build up the typically strong middle class of their roster, they'll need to make some difficult choices.

With that in mind, let's approach New England's free-agency plan from all perspectives, examining the best in- and out-of-house fits, as well as positions and players that figure to offer the best value on the open market.

Top Players to Retain

Darrelle Revis

It's probably distressing for Patriots fans that the team and Revis have yet to begin negotiating contract talks, based on a recent report from Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio.  Florio also reported that a long-term deal with more guaranteed money could pry Revis away from Foxborough, a challenge the rival New York Jets will almost certainly meet.

In his last two contracts, Revis has willingly bet on himself, sacrificing big signing bonuses in favor of higher annual base salaries that give him the title of highest-paid corner in the game.  That distinction appears important to Revis, and after thriving in his return to a man-coverage scheme, it would be surprising to see him abandon that desire.

The Pats likely wouldn't have much problem paying Revis upwards of $15 to $16 million per year if much of that isn't tied up in hefty guarantees, providing them year-to-year flexibility.  With Revis crossing age 30, though, no one can be sure how his outlook toward long-term security will change.

Devin McCourty

Revis may not even be the top priority, as the Patriots also need to retain home-grown All-Pro safety Devin McCourty.  Top-flight safeties come cheaper than elite cornerbacks, and given McCourty's indispensability to New England's single-high safety man coverages, it wouldn't be surprising to see the front office prioritize the younger McCourty in free agency.

Still, McCourty figures to demand upwards of $9 to $9.5 million per year, a figure the Pats apparently weren't willing to match with the franchise tag.  According to Dan Graziano of ESPN.com, the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles have ostensibly both made McCourty their top free-agent priority, and the total dearth of quality center fielder types will likely lead to an inflated market for McCourty.

Unlike with Revis, McCourty has already revealed his cards by stating a desire to stay with the Patriots.  Still, this feels eerily similar to the Wes Welker situation, when a mutual desire for a long-term deal fell apart due to miscommunications and misjudgments of player value on the open market.  Either way, the Pats seem unlikely to stretch themselves for both Revis and McCourty, so this is starting to feel like an either-or choice.

UPDATE: McCourty has re-upped with the Pats at five years, $47.5 million, according to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport.  That's higher than what the Patriots probably wanted to pay and reflects how they prioritized McCourty.  We'll see if the same holds true for Revis, as New England rarely bends for one big contract, let alone two.

Akeem Ayers

Some might be surprised to see Ayers in this space, as Shane Vereen is New England's other high-profile free agent.  However, with the running back market rallying this year with big deals for Marshawn Lynch and even Mark Ingram, Vereen's value will likely far eclipse what the Pats are willing to pay when considering their priorities at other positions.

However, Ayers is the type of value that great teams unearth to play underrated depth roles.  From Week 8 on, when he arrived in New England, his 31 pressures ranked eighth-most among 3-4 outside linebackers, per Pro Football Focus.  When considering that the price was essentially moving down from the bottom of the sixth round to the top of the seventh, the Patriots clearly turned a handsome profit from the deal.

It's unclear what type of market Ayers will command, though his previous success in 4-3 systems could make him an attractive secondary options to teams that miss out on the top edge-rushers.  But the Patriots still need edge-rushers, and if they retain Ayers, the Pats could finally roll out a real rotation with Ayers, Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich, potentially increasing each player's production.

Top Players to Chase

Al Bello/Getty Images

The Patriots' focus will be in-house this free-agency period, but that doesn't mean they won't be looking to add help from the outside.  Here's a look at some potential targets who could relocate to the Northeast next season.

Jared Odrick, DT, Miami Dolphins

With Miami inking Ndamukong Suh to a record-setting contract, according to Chris Mortensen of ESPN.com, there's zero chance the Dolphins will retain Odrick.  While Odrick is unlikely to have the same type of impact as Vince Wilfork did in his prime, he could replicate Wilfork's role as a versatile three-down interior lineman who can one- or two-gap from multiple techniques.

Last season, Odrick's plus-9.0 overall grade ranked 19th among defensive tackles, though some inconsistencies knocked that number down.  He may not have lived up to his first-round draft status, but over the past two seasons, he's been a quietly important cog in Miami's front seven.

At just over 300 pounds, Odrick wouldn't necessarily play much nose in New England (that role should fall onto Sealver Siliga moving forward); however, as someone who could play both the 3- and 5-tech spots in a variety of packages, Odrick would be a nice fit in New England's hybrid front.

Da'Norris Searcy, S, Buffalo Bills

Searcy remains a potential target even with the Pats re-signing McCourty, as he's the type of rising young player whose next contract could provide solid value in locking him up through his prime.  The Pats wouldn't be alone, as four other AFC teams reportedly have interest in the Buffalo safety, according to ESPN's Josina Anderson, but he would clearly come cheaper than McCourty.

Last season, opposing quarterbacks posted an abysmal 21.5 QB rating when targeting Searcy, who allowed receptions just once every 42.1 snaps in coverage.  The latter marked ranked fourth-best among all safeties, two spots ahead of McCourty.

To be clear, Searcy does have some overlap with McCourty, as he played free safety in Orchard Park. But unlike McCourty, Searcy provides value in the box, with a plus-5.6 run grade last year that ranked seventh-best at his position.  Thus, if the Patriots aren't happy with their safety options alongside McCourty, they could poach Searcy and move him into a box role next season.

Andre Holmes, WR, Oakland Raiders

The Pats have needed a big vertical receiver since roughly the Stone Age, but apart from Randy Moss' incandescent 2007 season, that need has largely gone unaddressed.  Given Aaron Dobson's wildly disappointing sophomore year, the Pats might want to consider turning to Holmes, a tantalizing 6'5" receiver who has largely gone unnoticed in the Black Hole.

The 26-year-old led the Raiders last year with 693 yards and four scores on 47 receptions, good for a healthy 14.7 yards per reception.  That yards-per-catch number is even more impressive when considering how checkdown-happy Derek Carr was in his rookie year, as the Raiders were ill-equipped to take advantage of Holmes' presence on the perimeter.

Though he's a restricted free agent, the Raiders put the lowest tender on Holmes, meaning that they can match any offer sheet but wouldn't receive any compensation if Holmes left.  The Patriots are never going to become a vertically Air Coryell type of passing offense during Tom Brady's twilight years, but Holmes is a high-upside, low-cost option who could prove a steal for someone next season.

Positions to Watch

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Not every decision needs to be entirely need-based.  The best teams strike at spots that provide the best value, so while the Patriots won't necessarily sign someone at each of these spots, the combination of need and free-agency depth makes these positions important ones to track for Pats fans.

Edge Defender

Akeem Ayers is the internal option the Pats have some degree of comfort with, but there are other players who could fulfill that third rotational edge-rushing role.  Given the flexibility of New England's defensive system, a number of players could conceivably fulfill a specific role on the edge.

Among pass-rushers, Brandon Graham, Derrick Morgan and Jabaal Sheard would all be excellent fits, but that trio is probably seeking starting gigs somewhere else.  A more situational player like Anthony Spencer would be a more limited sub-package option, but Spencer in particular could come on a cheap one-year deal.

A name to watch is longtime Chicago Bear Lance Briggs, who will not be returning to the Windy City after 12 seasons, according to CSNChicago.com's John Mullin.  Briggs' days as a havoc-wreaking foundational piece are over, but his plus-8.6 run-defense grade ranked eighth-best among 4-3 outside linebackers last season.  Briggs would probably be no more than a base-package presence, but he's the type of ring-chasing veteran the Pats have poached for years.

Defensive Tackle

Jared Odrick was just listed as a target here, and the Pats could find both run-stuffers and 3-techniques if he proves too expensive.  It'd be surprising if the Patriots didn't add at least one veteran at this position, as only futures signing Antonio Johnson has played more than four seasons in the league.

The Pats could still retain Alan Branch, while someone like Arizona's Dan Williams could be a longer-term solution.  Others such as Kevin Williams and Ryan Pickett appear unlikely to leave their current locales, but Pickett in particularly wouldn't have much trouble transitioning from the Houston Texans system given the strong overlap between the two franchises.

Among pass-rushers, Henry Melton and Cory Peters are young players who have shown flashes in the past only to be sidelined by Achilles injuries.  Melton's plus-15.8 pass-rushing grade ranked sixth among defensive tackles last season, but the Dallas Cowboys declined his oversized $9 million option.  If Melton is willing to take another short-term deal to re-establish his market value, the Pats could be a nice fit.

Wide Receiver

The Patriots' option-based passing game prioritizes route running and football IQ over raw physical tools, so the lack of top-end talent at the position isn't particularly damaging.  Still, the position was woefully thin behind Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell last season, and Danny Amendola's status is uncertain with a $5.7 million cap hit.  Thus, don't be surprised to see the Pats look for someone here.

We'll get to one cap casualty who would fit well in a second, but other veterans could relocate to Foxborough.  Harry Douglas and Eddie Royal are high-floor options who could play the slot in the event that Amendola doesn't return.  The Pats might give Josh Boyce a more earnest chance at the role next year, but Douglas or Royal would provide a safety net in the event that the former fourth-rounder continues to flounder.

Cecil Shorts is also a buy-low option after a plethora of lower-body injuries wrecked his tenure in Jacksonville.  The four-year vet has yet to play a 16-game season, but he's also had at least 50 catches each of the last three seasons despite the Jaguars' dysfunctional passing game.  Shorts won't come too cheap, as Miami—per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald—and Cleveland—per Browns beat writer Steve Doerschuk—have interest in him, but the Pats could at least take a look here.

Cap Casualties to Sign

The NFL's hard cap forces tough cuts every year, so an abundance of cap casualties could become critical cogs in lineups next season.  Here are three cuts who would be particularly nice fits for the Patriots.

Reggie Wayne

New England's longtime antagonist had the worst full season of his career last year, fading down the stretch and receiving no targets in either of Indy's final two playoff games.  However, while Wayne's speed may be gone, he did play through triceps and groin injuries last season and was still effective when healthy early in the season.

Wayne nearly left the Colts when Peyton Manning departed after the 2011 season, and the Patriots were the last team he rejected before returning, according to The Boston Globe's Greg A. Bedard.  The Denver Broncos would be a logical competitor this time around, given Manning's presence, but the Broncos are fairly deep at receiver and don't seem to have an opening for Wayne.

Wayne ran 62.1 percent of his routes from the slot last season, transitioning inside as T.Y. Hilton came into his own as a vertical threat.  With LaFell and Edelman entrenched at the flanker and split end roles, Wayne's versatility could allow him to carve out a part-time role on a one-year deal.

Pierre Thomas

If the Pats let Shane Vereen walk, potential passing back replacement James White is a total mystery.  White produced prolific collegiate numbers at Wisconsin but garnered just 14 touches last season and was a healthy scratch in all but three games.

Thus, it might be in New England's best interest to ease White into the role next season.  Thomas has been one of the league's most underrated all-around backs for years, accruing at least 800 yards from scrimmage in five of the past seven seasons.  He is one of 27 running backs to have over 4,000 all-purpose yards over the last five seasons, but excluding players who were primarily kick returners, no one has received fewer touches, per Pro-Football-Reference.com.

Thomas played in just 11 games last season, but his 1.83 yards per pass route run ranked third among all running backs.  The 30-year-old clearly remains an effective third-down back and could reliably serve the passing back role as White assimilates himself into a larger role.

Kendall Langford

I know I keep harping on defensive tackles, but there really is some solid value out there.  Langford was part of an excellent St. Louis Rams defensive line last season but hit the open market after the Rams deemed his $7 million cap hit too rich.

The 29-year-old has already taken a visit to Detroit, who have a big hole in the middle with Suh gone and Nick Fairley a free agent.  But there hasn't been much other interest in Langford, so while the Pats wouldn't likely structure their line around him, he's the type of player who could fall through the cracks yet play heavy snaps next season.

Latest News and Rumors

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Pats vs. Jets for Revis

With McCourty back in the fold, Pats fans might be concerned at the Patriots' ability to retain Revis as well.  It's been assumed that the division rival Jets could make a full-court press to bring Revis back to Gotham, and CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora suggested that New York and New England are the two finalists:

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I expect the Patriots to be able to keep cornerback Darrelle Revis or safety Devin McCourty, but it remains to be seen which one. I'm not ruling out both, but the price tag is getting steep. Will the Jets guarantee a third year for Revis at $14 million or $15 million per year? I'm not sure Woody Johnson wants to fund that kind of salary right now...But with the cornerback market drying up, we'll see. It'll be the Pats or Jets at this point, and I'm still leaning to the Pats.

"

La Canfora's report ends on a hopeful note for the Pats, but the opening sentence now looks more ominous.  The Patriots lost the McCourty negotiations, and if the Jets are truly willing to shell out, say, $40 million in guaranteed money, they'll probably blow New England's offer out of the water.  Given the personal nature of this rivalry, it wouldn't be surprising to see Gang Green overpay Revis just to weaken New England's 2015 title defense.

Vereen in Green?

Speaking of the Jets, New York figures to chase speed and versatility to spice up its moribund offense.  Vereen, who figures to have priced himself out of Foxborough, is apparently a primary target, according to the New York Daily News' Manish Mehta:

"

Sources: Jets lining up contingency plan if Bilal Powell walks. One potential target: Patriots RB Shane Vereen #nyj pic.twitter.com/Xh02TjAXc1

— Manish Mehta (@MMehtaNYDN) March 8, 2015"

Seeing Vereen move to MetLife Stadium next season might be a painful sight, but it's hardly a surprising one.  The Boston Globe's Jeff Howe has suggested that both Vereen and Stevan Ridley will depart in free agency given the Patriots' penurious attitude toward running backs in recent seasons.  Vereen is a more dangerous and versatile weapon than passing back predecessors Kevin Faulk or Danny Woodhead were, but his situational role likely isn't worth upwards of $5 million per year.

Amendola in the Cross Hairs?

If the Pats do intend to keep their top free agents, they'll need to compromise elsewhere on the roster.  That could spell bad news for slot receiver Danny Amendola, who impressed late in the season as the Pats turned to a more three-receiver-based approach on offense.  Nevertheless, ESPNBoston.com's Mike Reiss believes the front office will ask Amendola about a pay cut:

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I’m curious to see what happens, if anything, with receiver Danny Amendola’s contract. He’s scheduled to earn $4 million in 2015 and count $5.7 million against the cap, and one wonders if management deems that too rich for a slot receiver who played 41.6 percent of the snaps in 2014. Wouldn't be surprised if the Patriots approach Amendola about a possible adjustment there.

"

This is probably a necessary development, as Amendola's current projected cap hit for 2015 slides him between Victor Cruz and Emmanuel Sanders among wide receivers.  Despite his late-season surge, that's obviously out of whack given his role in the offense.  Look for the Pats to either give Amendola's contract a significant haircut or waive him entirely and save $2.1 million in the process.

Advanced stats courtesy of Pro Football Focus. Salary-cap info via Over the Cap.