Best-Case, Worst-Case Scenarios for Oklahoma City Thunder's 2015 Playoff Push
Now that they are among the top eight teams in the West, the Oklahoma City Thunder must weigh the best- and worst-case scenarios the rest of the season. Given the team's struggles to stay healthy all year, hanging on to a playoff spot is far from a certainty.
After coming into 2015 at 16-17, the Thunder have found their stride and will enter March with a record of 33-27. Russell Westbrook has emerged as a dark-horse MVP contender, and he's showing no signs of slowing down. He's second in scoring (26.5 points), fifth in assists (8.1) and second in steals per game (two).
He has a triple-double in each of his last three contests, becoming the first player since LeBron James in 2009 to accomplish that feat. The Long Beach blur dominated the month of February, averaging 31.2 points, 10.3 assists, 9.1 rebounds and 1.6 steals.
The club has also received solid play from some of its role players. Center Enes Kanter, acquired in a three-team trade on Feb. 19, is averaging 15.8 points and nine rebounds since joining the squad. Serge Ibaka leads the league in total blocks (143) and has developed into one of the league's best outside-shooting big men with a 38.4 percent clip from downtown.
The combination of all these factors play a large part in OKC holding down the eighth seed. The team currently sits a half-game above the New Orleans Pelicans and holds a two-game advantage over the Phoenix Suns.
On the flip side, injuries continue to hinder the Thunder's potential.
Kevin Durant has missed the last five games after having a screw replaced in his surgically repaired right foot. Center Steven Adams has been out since Feb. 8 with a broken hand. Both players will be reevaluated next week, per Darnell Mayberry of The Oklahoman. Westbrook on Saturday underwent surgery to repair a fractured cheek bone after taking an accidental knee from teammate Andre Roberson and will be reevaluated later in the week.
The club will need Durant back to his old form sooner rather than later. The final 22 games are crucial to the Thunder's playoff fate. A few key wins could boost OKC up the conference ladder, while some tough losses could have the team on the outside looking in once again.
Best-Case Scenario
The biggest thing the Thunder can hope for is that Westbrook continues to play at an insane level while Durant and Adams are sidelined. The star point guard has done an excellent job of putting the team on his back in the last two months.
"He's been doing that for years—but obviously he's taking it to another level in February," head coach Scott Brooks said, via ESPN.com. Brooks also called Westbrook a walking triple-double.
Fortunately, the immediate schedule looks favorable.
The team hosts the lowly Philadelphia 76ers on March 4. From there, OKC travels to Chicago to face a Bulls team that just lost Derrick Rose to a torn meniscus. On paper, both of those games look winnable, even with OKC playing short-handed.
Once Durant and Adams return, the team has to assimilate the twosome back into the rotation without any bumps in the road. Durant would get a little less than two months to shake off the rust and try to regain his MVP form before the playoffs. In 27 games, KD has averaged 25.4 points and 6.6 rebounds while struggling with rhythm issues and foot soreness.
As for Adams, his return becomes even more important with Kendrick Perkins no longer on the roster. OKC needs Adams to assume Big Perk's old role as the defensive anchor up front while holding down the fort against the West's top frontcourts, as Berry Tramel of The Oklahoman points out.
"Maybe Adams is up to the task. He’s built Perk-tough. No offense to the dearly departed, but Adams was the toughest Boomer on the roster even when Perkins was here. Adams is one of those rare guys with a mean streak and no emotion. He has a physicality that matches his uncommon athletic ability. Uncommon for a 7-footer, at least.
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A return to full strength will improve the Thunder's chances of rising up the standings. The team is only three-and-a-half games behind the San Antonio Spurs for the seventh seed and still has two more showdowns with Tim Duncan and Co. left on the docket.
Given the way Oklahoma City forced its way into the playoff picture, it's not unrealistic to think the team can close the gap on San Antonio.
Worst-Case Scenario
The main obstacle standing in front of a Thunder playoff run is Durant's health. Every time it seems KD is about to build momentum, his body finds a way to slow his roll. As great as Westbrook has been lately, this team needs the reigning MVP healthy to reach its full potential.
In a perfect world, the Thunder could just throw Durant back into the rotation, and he'll return to being the league's most dominant scorer.
In reality, it's going to be a process. OKC will have to be cautious with a player who hasn't been able to stay on the floor this season.
The remaining schedule won't do the Thunder any favors. Fifteen of the team's final 22 games are against projected playoff teams. The first week of April is particularly brutal: vs. Dallas, at Memphis, vs. Houston and vs. San Antonio.
As of March 1, those four teams are a combined 158-79. Yikes.
And if getting Durant back to being his old self isn't enough of a task, the Thunder will also have to figure out who their starting center will be once Adams returns. Kanter is the interior offensive presence the team has longed for, but he's a liability on the defensive end.
Adams is still developing, but he's a solid post defender and did nothing to warrant losing his starting job prior to getting injured. According to NBA.com, opponents are shooting 43.4 percent with the big Kiwi defending, compared to 47.6 percent normally.
The Thunder are also in a tough spot from a playoff-seeding standpoint.
While a seven-game series with the Warriors could be an instant classic, Golden State's balance might be too much for Oklahoma City. The Dubs are the top scoring team in the NBA, averaging 110.2 points. The team is also first in defensive efficiency, first in PACE rating and second in offensive efficiency, per ESPN.com's Hollinger Stats. Plus, they are also strong enough on the glass (seventh in rebounding) to contend with the Thunder up front.
Golden State also has a MVP candidate of its own in Stephen Curry and a supporting star in Klay Thompson. Either are capable of filling it up in a hurry from anywhere on the court. If one of the Splash Bros. managed to do their best NBA Jam impression, the Thunder would be in trouble.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have done an admirable job of clawing their way out of the NBA's basement and into a playoff spot. However, the next two months will decide how this season will be remembered.
Health, star power, depth and experience will play into any and all matchups the Thunder may find themselves in once the playoffs start.
However, if they can't weather the storm ahead, their 2014-15 campaign will end up being a disappointing disaster.
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