5 Steps the Memphis Grizzlies Must Take to Secure a High Playoff Seed
As the Memphis Grizzlies stand second in the Western Conference at 40-14, they have a shot at their highest finish ever. The young franchise has never placed better than fourth in the West, and a top-three finish would provide some assurance of their title contention.
The Grizzlies can't coast to the end of the regular season as other Western playoff teams will be hot down the stretch.
Charging towards May as hard as they did the past few years seems crucial. A major aspect will be an intense defensive attack after a soft period during part of the first half. While Marc Gasol will coordinate the five-position lockdown among starters, the Grizzlies will receive a significant amount of help on that end from two guards off the bench.
Memphis will monitor the balance between Gasol and Zach Randolph as the center should rediscover his MVP-level offensive form. His elevated production would make the Grizzlies more intriguing in competing for a top spot in the West.
Statistics are current through Feb. 22 games. Unless otherwise noted, advanced metrics come from basketball-reference.com.
Stay Committed Defensively
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Having recovered their defensive excellence before the All-Star break, the Grizzlies must keep it tight to give themselves the best hope of staying near the top of the West.
After allowing 109.8 points per 100 possessions from Dec. 5 to Jan. 3, they allowed 98.2 Jan. 5 to Feb. 10. Memphis showed more defensive energy and stopped three-point shooters, allowing 32.6 percent from long range during that time.
The Grizzlies' 98-92 victory against the Portland Trail Blazers on Sunday was a microcosm of the season defensively as Memphis experienced lapses during the second and third quarters. The Blazers made seven three-pointers in the third frame. Later, they silenced Portland with suffocating on-ball pressure.
Tony Allen explained the Grizzlies' work, telling The Commercial Appeal's Ron Tillery, "We weathered the storm and went back to the things we've worked on the last five days—helping the helper, being up in pick-and-roll coverages and having a sense of urgency on that end."
Maintaining urgency throughout games would ease pressure on an offense that can't bounce back from every double-digit deficit as it did against the Blazers.
The Commercial Appeal's Chris Herrington said this resurgence brought the necessary balance for a Grizzlies title contender.
That Grizzlies' defensive primacy seals it comes as a welcome luxury after a few years in which they pinned those hopes on the performance on that end. Putting themselves in position for a title run will be smoothed by defense.
Steady Jeff Green
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As Jeff Green has started 12 straight games since arriving via trade from Boston, including the first after the All-Star break, one can safely assume he'll stay there for the remainder of the regular season.
With that settled, the Grizzlies should see that he finds a groove. He's scored 11.5 points per game on just 41.6 percent shooting while in the lineup, making 40 percent in six of his 13 starts.
The high-volume scorer may simply need to keep shooting towards improvement. Zach Randolph said as much in telling Tillery, "That's going to open things up for me and Marc if he's aggressive."
Green did that as he shot 6-of-9 in 25 minutes against the Blazers on Sunday. After hitting two of five attempts in the first quarter, he attacked the basket and made all four the rest of the game.
Such aggression not only opens opportunities for big men as Randolph mentioned, but it also helps the team reach the free-throw line more often. The Commercial Appeal's Peter Edmiston noted Memphis gets more attempts at the charity stripe with Green on the floor.
Since the Grizzlies acquired Green, their free-throw rate is 30 percent, compared with 27.8 percent beforehand.
Finding Marc Gasol's Peak
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The Grizzlies need another big push from Marc Gasol on both ends as he winds down a contract year.
Edmiston named Gasol as the team's top offensive player of the first half, saying, "It's given because Gasol has decided, for whatever reason, [to] finally use his immense offensive gifts more frequently."
Edmiston mentioned Gasol started taking numerous shots more often. He has taken 16 or more field-goal attempts in 31.5 percent of games, compared with 5.5 percent during six prior years.
But Gasol took a backseat in the last 20 games before the All-Star break, posting 15.4 points on 12 shots per game. The Spaniard scored 20 points three times during that span.
If Memphis needs to balance the production of Randolph and Gasol, they should lean more on the more efficient one. Gasol's a 50.9 percent shooter for his career, 3.6 percent better than his frontcourt mate. He's also in the midst of his peak, while Randolph is on a later stage.
Hopefully, Gasol maximizes the opportunity and pounds away inside before the postseason and free agency.
Strong Guard Play off the Bench
4 of 5As Grizzlies head coach Dave Joerger cements his lineup, he will find the right moments to insert reserve backcourt players.
Allen took his energetic defensive attack to a reserve role after starting 36 games this year. He allowed 98.6 points per 100 possessions while picking up 1.9 steals per game.
Since joining the second unit, Allen has 1.5 steals per game.
Nick Calathes will also find time as a stopper off the bench. He grabs 2.6 steals per 36 minutes. On Sunday, he had four in only 15 minutes. Edmiston noted opponents shoot significantly worse with Calathes on the floor.
Beno Udrih will continue to spark the offense while acting as the No. 2 point guard and occasionally appearing on court with Mike Conley. Udrih is averaging 7.8 points and 3.1 assists in 18.6 minutes per game while shooting 49.8 percent from the field.
"No player's been better in isolation situations than Udrih," Edmiston said.
Win 20 Games in the Post-All-Star Break Stretch
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The Grizzlies have a small cushion, with three-and-a-half games separating them and the West's third-place Houston Rockets. But the fact that four games stand between Memphis and the sixth-place Dallas Mavericks is not encouraging.
In the past three 82-game seasons, 57 wins has ensured a No. 3 spot. That would simply require the Grizzlies to go 18-11 after the All-Star break.
Still, other Western playoff teams could mount rallies that threaten their place near the top. The San Antonio Spurs have yet to kick into gear as Kawhi Leonard struggles. The Los Angeles Clippers have stayed strong while dealing with defensive issues. L.A. will play 13 of its last 22 games against teams outside the top eight in their conferences.
Memphis should aim for a 20-9 stretch run to end the regular season at 59-23 in case multiple squads behind them catch fire.
Also, the Grizzlies' schedule doesn't give them breaks. Fifteen of their 28 remaining games are on the road. Memphis will face tough sets late in the season, including games against the Cleveland Cavaliers, Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs.
The last three games pit Memphis against the Clippers, Warriors and Indiana Pacers, which look to have Paul George back in March, as he told Pro Basketball Talk's Kurt Helin.
They will play 10 back-to-backs, the most in the NBA.
Joerger told Tillery he isn't worrying about that figure, saying, "I said let's just look at it one week at a time."
If the Grizzlies' recent history as a hot second-half team is any sign, they should be safe. They've gone 66-27 (.710) in the past three years, as Grizzlies communications specialist Ross Wooden tweeted.
Indeed, during each of those seasons, they were making up ground in the playoff race.
The Grizzlies' defensive awakening and midseason integration of Green suggest that they could win 20 games after the break in a fourth straight year.
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