Are San Antonio Spurs a Step Behind NBA Elite?
One can no longer blame the San Antonio Spurs' barely adequate 34-22 record on a flurry of key injuries and an uncharacteristically awful 8-10 December. That much has become clear on account of a long-held No. 7 seed and the key losses that precipitated it.
This isn't the same team that stormed through the Western Conference toward a fifth championship just months ago.
Even if the roster similarities seem to suggest otherwise, and even if San Antonio receives an injury-based pardon for its out-of-rhythm offense, this franchise isn't about making excuses. Third-party observers shouldn't be either.
Put simply, the Spurs are struggling against good teams—and Monday night's 90-81 loss to the 21-34 Utah Jazz suggests nothing's coming easily at the moment. Now riding its second losing streak of at least three games this season, San Antonio is threatening to retreat from a contender conversation its dominated in recent years.
The Hole That's Been Dug
The Spurs gave up 229 combined points in last week's back-to-back losses against the Los Angeles Clippers and league-leading Golden State Warriors. That latter defeat came by 11 points, which doesn't begin to describe how lopsided this game became in the second half. Meanwhile, L.A. claimed its second straight win against San Antonio after a Jan. 31 contest decided by 20 points.
| Date | Opponent | W/L | Score |
| Oct. 28 | vs. Dallas Mavericks | W | 101-100 |
| Nov. 6 | @ Houston Rockets | L | 98-81 |
| Nov. 10 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | W | 89-85 |
| Nov. 11 | @ Golden State Warriors | W | 113-100 |
| Dec. 5 | @ Memphis Grizzlies | W | 107-101 |
| Dec. 15 | @ Portland Trail Blazers | L | 108-95 |
| Dec. 17 | vs. Memphis Grizzlies | L | 117-116 3OT |
| Dec. 19 | vs. Portland Trail Blazers | L | 129-119 3OT |
| Dec. 20 | @ Dallas Mavericks | L | 99-93 |
| Dec. 22 | vs. Los Angeles Clippers | W | 125-118 |
| Dec. 25 | vs. Oklahoma City Thunder | L | 114-106 |
| Dec. 28 | vs. Houston Rockets | W | 110-106 |
| Dec. 30 | @ Memphis Grizzlies | L | 95-87 |
| Jan. 16 | vs. Portland Trail Blazers | W | 110-96 |
| Jan. 31 | vs. Los Angeles Clippers | L | 105-85 |
| Feb. 19 | @ Los Angeles Clippers | L | 119-115 |
| Feb. 20 | @ Golden State Warriors | L | 110-99 |
Throw in road trip losses to the Toronto Raptors and Utah Jazz, and the Spurs are now in real danger of turning in their first losing Rodeo Road Trip performance since the tradition began in 2003. Now 2-4 on the excursion, one more loss would do it.
The last time head coach Gregg Popovich and Co. beat a plus-.500 team was Jan. 25 (against the still-learning Milwaukee Bucks). Altogether this season, they're just 7-10 against Western Conference teams that would make the playoffs if they began today.
While San Antonio admittedly padded its record in January, six of the month's 10 wins came against sub-.500 competition. Those wins also were not enough to extricate this team from the bottom of the playoff bracket.
Here's one way to frame things. Even if the Spurs won the remainder of their games this season, they'd still fall short of 2013-14's 62-20 record—and they have 26 games still to go.
A Rodeo-Road-Trip(ping) schedule hasn't been kind to the Spurs, but these are the kind of moments that usually separate contenders from their would-be counterparts.
"Historically, that 'Rodeo Road Trip,' that time before, during and after the All-Star break has always been good for us," Popovich told USA Today's Sam Amick in January 2014. "We've got a lot of away games. It's a great time to come together and get the bunker mentality, and all that trade crap. But it works for us."
So far, it hasn't worked against the Warriors, Clippers, Raptors or Jazz. Los Angeles tallied 119 points with arguably the best player Blake Griffin sidelined, and Golden State made the defending champs look a step slow.
And a step behind.
While there's no single explanation for San Antonio's plight, there's suddenly a real possibility that the rest of the West has caught up to the league's model franchise in a big way. The culprits include a few things that can be fixed, but there's no fixing just how good the competition has become.
The Long Shot
At the moment, the Spurs are short on the kind of heroics that's compensated for their lack of superheroes in years past. There's no Harden, Curry or Griffin in these ranks, but there has been a whole lot of made three-pointers.
Less so recently, however.
"We shot very poorly, and they didn't," sixth man Manu Ginobili told reporters, per The Associated Press (via ESPN.com), after the loss to Golden State. "We didn't play that bad. They were just inspired, and we couldn't make shots."
San Antonio made just six of 19 three-point attempts in that contest, a 31.6 percent mark that fell short of a 36.3 percent average that ranks sixth league-wide this season. The Warriors and Clippers are both cashing in at higher rates, and last season's Spurs led the league with a gaudy 39.7 percent success rate.
Among Spurs averaging at least two three-point attempts per game, only Manu Ginobili is making a higher rate of those attempts than a season ago. Kawhi Leonard's drop-off (from 37.9 to 32.8 percent) has been particularly stark.
When the long balls do fall, this remains a formidable club with a ceiling we know all about. But unless they fall more often, San Antonio has little in the way of a competitive advantage against teams with superior individual firepower.
There's something to be said for a defense currently tied for fourth-best with the Memphis Grizzlies in efficiency (allowing opponents just 100.2 points per 100 possessions, according to Hollinger Stats), but that hasn't compensated for a middling offense that's so far cracked 100 points just twice in the last five road-trip opportunities.
On the season, the Spurs rank 12th in offensive efficiency, per Hollinger Stats, tallying just 103.9 points per 100 possessions after posting a sixth-best mark of 108.2 points per 100 possessions in 2013-14. Injuries have played their part in the broader numbers, but even a healthy iteration of this club has struggled to score in recent outings.
Tony Parker—who's totaled just seven points in his last two outings—is averaging his lowest per-game scoring average (14.3 points) since his rookie season. Good as Leonard and 38-year All-Star Tim Duncan have been, neither is carrying this offense.
In fairness, San Antonio's vaunted system still works pretty well. The team ranks fourth in assists (24.5 per game), and you'll certainly see your share of championship basketball on some nights—just not quite enough of it on the nights that matter most.
The New Best of the West
Injuries to Griffin and Houston Rockets center Dwight Howard have ostensibly cleared a path for San Antonio to climb its way up the standings. Taking advantage of that opportunity, however, is an entirely different story.
Per Hollinger Stats, the Clippers, Warriors and Dallas Mavericks all rank ahead of the Spurs in offensive efficiency. And at 43-9, first-placed Golden State is a full 11 games ahead of San Antonio in the standings. Now just four games ahead of the Oklahoma City Thunder, the reigning champions are far closer to occupying the West's eighth seed than they are to stealing its first.
Put simply, the rest of the conference appears to be surpassing the Spurs in important ways.
The Memphis Grizzlies have persistently maintained control of the Southwest Division, and January's acquisition of swingman Jeff Green via trade has only strengthened that grip. They're 13-3 since adding the 28-year-old and still among the league's defensive elite.
The Rockets maintain a slim lead over the conference's fourth-placed Portland Trail Blazers, thanks in large part to a solid 7-4 record during a recent stretch without Howard. Once in danger of taking a step back after this summer's loss of forward Chandler Parsons, general manager Daryl Morey has quietly retooled with the staggered additions of Trevor Ariza, Corey Brewer and Josh Smith.
And though San Antonio has just one more loss than the Mavericks, Dallas is poised to shake things up with a new-look roster featuring Parsons, center Tyson Chandler and point guard Rajon Rondo. After nearly upsetting the Spurs in last season's seven-game opening-round series, the thought of head coach Rick Carlisle returning with a much-improved roster should put San Antonio's uphill battle in perspective.
Portland mustered less of a fight in its last-season second-round meeting with the Spurs, but the additions of Chris Kaman and Arron Afflalo could certainly make a difference next time around.
All the maneuvering hasn't inspired a bold reaction from an organization that's anything but reactionary. As the San Antonio Express-News' Jeff McDonald put it in advance of the trade deadline:
"Most seasons, the NBA trade deadline is but a rumor in San Antonio. Typically light on tradeable assets, and with an organization-wide ethos that values continuity above all, Spurs coach Gregg Popovich and general manager R.C. Buford are generally content to let the day come and go without making a splash.
"
Aside from drafting Kyle Anderson and signing swingman Reggie Williams for the remainder of the season, San Antonio has stuck to its guns—perhaps this time to a fault. Continuity has historically done good things for this franchise, but institutional knowledge only goes so far in the face of superior talent.
On paper, that's precisely what this club has begun to encounter—and this time, the paper may not be lying.
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