Wizards Still Trying to Give John Wall What Kyrie Irving Has with Cavs
Individual comparisons of Kyrie Irving and John Wall are relics of the recent past, their shelf life having reached expiration the moment LeBron James returned to the Cleveland Cavaliers. Now, more so than ever before, a stark contrast exists between the two point guards, from what's expected of them to what's around them.
It is that latter gap, the more important disparity, the Washington Wizards are trying to close.
The Cavaliers have given Irving a superstar running mate—two of them, actually—and a ready-made contender to help captain. The Wizards, for all their pomp and promise, have yet to do the same for Wall.
There are, of course, important distinctions to make and caveats to acknowledge as the Cavaliers and Wizards prepare to square off Friday night for the third time this season.
Irving's Cavaliers are not the byproduct of a successful process. Their jump to notoriety happened almost overnight, initiated by James' arrival and furthered by the trade for Kevin Love. Though it took some salary-cap management and asset-collecting for the Cavaliers to get here, they essentially lucked into this present-day roster.
They had one of the NBA's seven-worst records through Irving's first three seasons. As appealing as the point guard's skill set may have been, there is no Kevin Love without LeBron James, and there is no LeBron James without his longstanding ties to Ohio and the city of Cleveland.
Still, the Cavaliers are here, 11 games over .500, chasing the Eastern Conference's No. 2 seed, in hot pursuit of an NBA championship. And they're here in part because they recognized the need for change. They would have been foolish not to pitch James, but doing so demanded foresight—the kind that actively, albeit silently, understood neither Dion Waiters nor Tristan Thompson was the sidekick Irving needed.
Some are wont to argue that, despite the Cavaliers' on-paper and on-court surge, they are no better in function than the Wizards. After all, both are Eastern Conference contenders trying to position themselves for some kind of home-court advantage in the playoffs.
Leading into Friday night's matchup, the Wizards have the better record. They've even split the season series thus far with this supposedly superior team.
But the Wizards' hold on fourth place is flimsy. A win would vault Cleveland ahead of Washington, creating separation that, while slim, once again caters to the seldom-sought truth: The Wizards are not legitimate contenders. Not really. They're a quality basketball team that has plateaued as currently constructed.
| 2013-14 | 53.7 | 106.0 | 16 | 104.6 | 7 | 1.27 | 15 |
| 2014-15 | 61.1 | 105.5 | 15 | 103.0 | 7 | 2.35 | 12 |
"In an unbalanced Eastern Conference that's starting to personify a top-heavy Jenga tower, a thin line is separating contenders from pretenders," wrote Bleacher Report's Alec Nathan ahead of the All-Star break. "Just ask the Washington Wizards, who are toeing that balance beam with a wobbly disposition."
This is not to say the Wizards haven't been impressive at times. They're a sound defensive squad on pace for the fifth-best winning percentage in franchise history and the highest since 1978-79. But contender status has been stripped from them—if they ever had it at all.
After a blistering 19-6 start to the season, the Wizards are just 14-15 since. They're not playing especially different during this stretch, either. They rank 16th in offensive efficiency and seventh in defensive efficiency through their last 29 games.
Their struggles have been particularly apparent against "good" teams. They're 7-11 when facing Eastern Conference playoff squads and 10-16 against opponents above .500. (The Cavaliers, by comparison, are 11-7 versus East playoff teams and 13-14 against factions above .500.)
The Wizards' margin of victory from above is middling. The Oklahoma City Thunder, Milwaukee Bucks, Miami Heat and Charlotte Hornets are the only playoff teams with lower ratings. This, despite the Wizards playing through the league's second-easiest schedule to date.
When using Basketball-Reference.com's Simple Rating System (SRS), which measures teams based on their strength of schedule and performance, the Wizards' score (1.66) ranks 13th among the 16 playoff contingents.
Only one of the last 40 NBA Finals participants has registered an SRS south of two: the 1998-99 New York Knicks. When you look at the average SRS score of Finals participants over the last 20 years, the Wizards don't even begin to stack up:
Indeed, the Cavaliers don't rank high on this scale themselves. Just two teams have made the Finals with SRS scores below three (those 1998-99 Knicks and the 1994-95 Houston Rockets). But they're on a hot streak, having won 14 of their last 16 contests.
More importantly, they have an excess of star power the Wizards do not.
Superstars aren't everything these days, something the San Antonio Spurs and Atlanta Hawks have proved time after time. Look at every genuine contender, though, and there will be at least two players who can be classified as stars. This holds true right down to the Spurs and Hawks themselves.
Employing multiple stars is a luxury the Wizards do not enjoy. They've rounded out the roster around Wall, but they're still searching for that second contemporary star.
Bradley Beal is the most obvious candidate to fulfill that role, since he has, at times, looked the part. No one will soon forget last season's playoff campaign, during which Beal joined Kobe Bryant as the only other player, age 20 or younger, to average 19 points, five rebounds, 4.5 assists and 1.5 steals per postseason contest.
But Beal's NBA tenure has been riddled by injuries more than most. He sat out 26 games as a rookie, and he's missed 12 games and counting this season. Beal's usage rate is also the lowest of his career, and he ranks sixth on the Wizards in win shares.
Win shares are by no means a perfect metric, and injuries have no doubt curbed Beal's total. At the same time, Paul Pierce, Kris Humphries and Nene have all collected more than Beal in fewer minutes.
To coin Beal a star—or even a future star—stretches the boundaries of what we know. He's a solid talent at a shallow shooting guard position, but he's never posted an above-average player efficiency rating.
Beyond him, the Wizards are thin on potential star sidekicks.
Marcin Gortat, Nene and Pierce are all on the back end of their careers. Otto Porter, meanwhile, still doesn't receive enough playing time for us to offer even a semi-confident prediction of what he may or may not become.
This absence of complementary star power has never been more obvious. Wall is entering his prime, staking his claim as the East's best point guard, yet Washington remains on the outside looking in at the championship picture.
The Wizards are aware of this too.
Twenty-eight other squads would love to poach Kevin Durant from the Thunder in 2016, but it's the Wizards who have been most linked to his potential departure. Durant is a native of Maryland, and some teams previously heard "rumblings" that his decision would come down to Washington and Oklahoma City, according to Grantland's Zach Lowe.
Wall himself already copped to recruiting Durant last February, telling The Washington Post's Michael Lee, “I throw a little slick shots here and there. Try something.”
Adding Durant—or another star, for that matter—remains a dream predicated on a number of things, most notably the expected salary-cap boon in 2016 and the Wizards' ability to create the requisite financial flexibility following said explosion. Because of these factors, it's unclear when or if they will land another star.
It's clear that the Wizards need another star.
Until they get one, Wall is caught in this limbo. He is a great player on a team that still hasn't found a way to channel his greatness into title contention. And when he steps on the court against Cleveland, win or lose, he'll see Irving, once a fellow victim of circumstance, who now has the running mates and opportunity Washington has yet to give him.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com and are accurate leading into games for Feb. 20, 2015 unless otherwise cited .
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
