49ers Must Move on From Frank Gore, But Aging Back's NFL Career is Far From Over

The NFL can be a harsh business, and at no position is that more true than at running back.

We're seeing yet another potential example of this playing out in San Francisco, where a frustrated Frank Gore has taken to social media to voice his unhappiness over his status with the team.

That frustration may well only grow as we near the beginning of free agency on March 10. And it's possible that Gore's days in San Francisco may be finished.

Gore himself, on the other hand? He isn't finished yet—not by a long shot.

Bay Area Breakup?

As Marc Sessler of NFL.com reported, Gore took to Instagram Sunday, posting that "I know the fans love me but I need to know if the management does."

The post was later removed, but the message was clear. The 31-year-old free-agent-to-be is apparently searching for a commitment from the 49ers, reassurance that he's in the team's long-term plans.

According to Matt Barrows of The Sacramento Bee, that isn't the only assurance Gore is seeking:

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Gore is coming off his eighth 1,000-yard season in his 10-year career. A source close to him said Gore wants two things: 1.) Another 1,000-yard season, which would put him past 12,000 yards for his career, and 2.) A chance at a Super Bowl title.

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Let's assume, just for the sake of argument, that Gore considers the 49ers a legitimate contender, despite a complete turnover of the coaching staff.

Even if that's the case, the only way Gore is making it back over 1,000 yards in 2015 with the Niners is if he does so as the team's lead back.

As Barrows points out, there's no guarantee that's the case:

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He earned nearly $6.5 million in each of the last two seasons, a figure the 49ers -- or any other team -- are unlikely to give to a runner who turns 32 in May. It’s also unknown whether the 49ers plan to give more carries in 2015 to Carlos Hyde, a second-round pick in 2014 who showed promise as a rookie.

Hyde has a rare combination of size and agility, and his style seems to mesh well with the stretch-run style blocking new offensive line coach Chris Foerster used effectively when he was in Washington.

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In addition to Hyde's presence on the team, there are also significant financial concerns. Per Over the Cap, the 49ers have next to no cap space—only $1.5 million under a projected 2015 cap of $140 million.

Gore also isn't the only prominent free agent the 49ers have—a list that includes guard Mike Iupati and wide receiver Michael Crabtree.

Yes, Gore has done great deal for the 49ers over the past decade. But the NFL doesn't care about then. The NFL cares about now, and the facts now are Gore is a plus-30 running back closing in on 2,500 career carries. The 49ers are a team in transition with very little wiggle room under the cap and a capable replacement waiting in the wings.

And unless Gore is willing to accept both a reduced role and a reduced salary, the odds look good he'll be moving on in the offseason.

The Tank Isn't Dry Yet

In many respects, the same concerns that exist for Gore in free agency are the reason why his tenure in San Francisco may be coming to an end.

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

For starters, there's the "cliff" that many running backs hit as they approach (or eclipse) the age of 30. In fact, a study by ESPN.com's Kevin Seifert last year showed that since 2001 the majority of running backs started to fall off after they turned 28:

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Overall, we see their careers peak at age 27. Afterward, their rushing totals drop by 15 percent in one year, 25 percent in two and almost 40 by the time they are 30.

Most decision-makers -- whether their background was in scouting, accounting or anything in between -- saw that trend as a bad investment. As with any business, they reserve premium contracts for projected growth in production, not a decline.

The message is clear: Running backs of this generation picked, well, the wrong generation to be running backs. Teams want them young, cheap and fresh -- and the data makes it difficult to argue their point.

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The recent track record of teams signing aging running backs isn't helping Gore's case. Steven Jackson gained 1,000 yards eight straight seasons with the St. Louis Rams but hasn't topped 750 yards in a season in two injury-plagued years with the Atlanta Falcons. Maurice Jones-Drew led the NFL in rushing as recently as 2011 but was a shell of his former self in his first season with the Oakland Raiders in 2014.

However, while we can speculate Gore might be set for a decline, that's all we can do. Because Gore's given no real indication to this point that he's interested in that drop-off.

In fact, folks have been waiting for Gore to decline for the past several seasons, but the 10-year veteran just keeps chugging along.

Year	G	Att.	Yds.	Avg.	TD	Rec.	Yds.	TD
2005	14	127	608	4.8	3	15	131	0
2006	16	312	1695	5.4	8	61	485	1
2007	15	250	1102	4.2	5	53	436	1
2008	14	240	1036	4.3	6	43	373	2
2009	14	229	1120	4.9	10	52	406	3
2010	11	203	853	4.2	3	46	452	2
2011	16	282	1211	4.3	8	17	114	0
2012	16	258	1214	4.7	8	28	234	1
2013	16	276	1128	4.1	9	16	141	0
2014	16	255	1106	4.3	4	11	111	1

Yes, Gore's 1,106 yards on the ground were the third-lowest total of his career and his lowest output since missing five games in 2010.

However, those missed games were the last time Gore sat out, and his 4.3 yards-per-carry average in 2014 was actually a slight increase over the year before. It was also higher than Hyde, who averaged an even four yards a pop.

Mind you, this isn't to say that Gore's play hasn't fallen off at all, at least in the eyes of the folks at Pro Football Focus. Gore graded out 11th among all running backs in 2012. That number fell to 13th in 2013 and then 26th last year.

With that said, though, that 26th-place ranking at PFF was still higher than the likes of Alfred Morris of the Washington Redskins and LeSean McCoy of the Philadelphia Eagles. And in terms of DYAR at Football Outsiders, Gore was a top-10 running back in 2014.

Even if he isn't the back he once was, Gore remains a steady, durable veteran presence in the backfield who can also catch the ball well and pass protect.

What's Next for Gore?

So if Gore is indeed the victim of a numbers game in San Francisco but remains a player who can make a real contribution, what could 2015 hold for him?

Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images

In a perfect world, Gore would probably prefer to remain put and finish his career in San Fran, but a change in scenery could give Gore a much better chance at that elusive Super Bowl ring.

If Gore truly does want both the chance to top 1,000 yards again and a shot at a deep playoff run, the Indianapolis Colts might be happy to oblige. Gore himself told Barrows that the Colts were an interesting possibility back in January:

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One player who will be intently watching the weekend’s Colts-Broncos game? Running back Frank Gore. His top choice is to remain with the 49ers. But he’s also curious about playing with Andrew Luck and wonders whether a quality tailback is the missing element in Indianapolis’ offense.

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It takes about eight seconds to see the fit. Trent Richardson has been a disaster in Indy. Dan Herron played well in 2014, but he's a free agent and nowhere near the player Gore is, even in his "old age."

Oh, and the Colts have over $35 million in cap space, so signing Gore is well within the team's means.

There are those who think Gore might be able to get even closer to the Super Bowl than that:

Granted, it would take some doing to free up money for the Super Bowl champion New England Patriots to sign Frank Gore. But the team could find itself with a hole in the backfield if Shane Vereen leaves in free agency, and there isn't a coach in the NFL who cares less how old a running back is than Bill Belichick.

If anything, that may make it even less likely that Gore will stay in San Francisco, especially if he truly is frustrated that extension talks haven't started yet. If Gore hits the open market and receives an offer from a team he sees as closer to the Super Bowl win that might cement his Hall of Fame candidacy, then Gore may just make up the 49ers' mind for them.

At this point the winds seem to be blowing Gore out of San Francisco, and it may well be that we've heard the last of him in the Bay Area.

Unless, of course, Gore's new team needs him to make one last trip back to Santa Clara next February.

Gary Davenport is an NFL Analyst at Bleacher Report and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and the Pro Football Writers of America. You can follow Gary on Twitter @IDPManor.