Can San Antonio Spurs Turn Corner Post-All-Star Break?
Back-to-back contests against the Los Angeles Clippers and Golden State Warriors are about to cut short whatever respite the San Antonio Spurs enjoyed during this year's All-Star break.
Even as the reigning champions attempt to duplicate their past success during this month's Rodeo Road Trip, there's no guarantee they'll generate any momentum after getting off to a 2-1 start that included an 87-82 loss to the Toronto Raptors.
And for a team that's still looking to forget all about an 8-10 December, the current stretch of away games will only reveal so much about the Spurs' eventual fate.
The real question is what happens pursuant to this protracted road trip: Can head coach Gregg Popovich's now-healthy squad build upon a 10-4 January and reclaim one of the top seeds to which this club has become so accustomed in years past?
The Road Ahead
At the moment, San Antonio is one of three teams in a crowded Western Conference with 19 losses—an otherwise solid mark that hasn't been quite good enough to shake the club's long-held No. 7 seed.
| Opponent | Opp. Record |
| @ Los Angeles Clippers | 35-19 |
| @ Golden State Warriors | 42-9 |
| @ Utah Jazz | 19-34 |
| @ Portland Trail Blazers | 36-17 |
| @ Sacramento Kings | 18-34 |
| @ Phoenix Suns | 29-25 |
| vs. Sacramento Kings | 18-34 |
| vs. Denver Nuggets | 20-33 |
| vs. Chicago Bulls | 34-20 |
| vs. Toronto Raptors | 36-17 |
Odds are that loss column suffers some inflation before the Spurs experience anything resembling a real turnaround. They lost to the Clippers by 20 points during their last meeting in January, and the Warriors own the league's best record at 42-9. The month's final four games—all on the road—include stops in Portland and Phoenix.
Optimists will cite history. San Antonio has generally been quite good on its annual road trip, securing .500-or-better records without exception since the ritual began in 2003. As of the 2013-14 season, that's translated into a somewhat remarkable 71-29 cumulative record during the February excursions from the AT&T Center.
While lamenting a handful of injuries threatening to derail the road show a season ago, even Popovich acknowledged the past success.
"Historically, that 'Rodeo Road Trip,' that time before, during and after the All-Star break has always been good for us," he told USA Today's Sam Amick in January 2014. "We've got a lot of away games. It's a great time to come together and get the bunker mentality, and all that trade crap. But it works for us."
| Season | Record | Season Ending Performance |
| 2009-10 | 4-4 | Lost to Phoenix Suns in Conf. Semis (4-0) |
| 2010-11 | 6-3 | Lost to Memphis Grizzlies in opening round (4-2) |
| 2011-12 | 8-1 | Lost to Oklahoma City Thunder in Conf. Finals (4-2) |
| 2012-13 | 7-2 | Lost to Miami Heat in NBA Finals (4-3) |
| 2013-14 | 6-3 | Beat Miami Heat in NBA Finals (4-1) |
With or without similar exploits this time around, there's plenty of good news with 29 games remaining.
What's to Like
Even if San Antonio's away journey fails to yield many wins, a six-game homestand thereafter could change all that—especially if this roster remains intact.
After missing 32 games combined, leading scorers Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker are healthy and making an unmistakable impact. Coming off a 104-87 win against the Detroit Pistons last week, there are once again signs of San Antonio's two-way proficiency.
And while the three-pointers weren't falling as regularly in the more tightly contested meetings with Toronto and the Indiana Pacers, the open looks have been there for the Spurs' sharpshooters in each of their first three road-trip tests.
That testament to the club's good-to-great ball movement is a promising indicator going forward. When the shots do start dropping with some regularity, San Antonio's title form might not be far behind.
In the meantime, Popovich and Co. have relied heavily on a first-rate defensive unit to remain in the playoff hunt. Per Hollinger Stats, the Spurs are allowing opponents just 99.6 points per 100 possessions—tied with the Portland Trail Blazers as the league's third most efficient defense.
Assuming Leonard remains on the floor for the rest of the season, that mark could improve even more. An impressive 25-10 when Leonard plays, the Spurs are just 9-9 when he doesn't—and that's not the only notable difference.
According to NBA.com, San Antonio allows just 96.4 points per 100 possessions when the 23-year-old's playing and 102.1 points per 100 possessions when he isn't. That's the kind of difference that could very well alter this team's fortunes in the standings.
But there are also reasons for those optimists out there to proceed with caution—particularly when one accounts for what's happening on the offensive end.
Reality Check
The Spurs aren't 34-19 by accident, and injuries have only been half the story.
San Antonio Express-News scribe Dan McCarney recently outlined the other half in advance of the All-Star festivities:
"Parker's mediocre play has certainly had a big impact on the Spurs' slide from one of the league’s best offenses (108.2 points per 100 possessions in 2013-14, sixth) to the middle of the pack (103.9/100, 14th). But he was playing fairly well before his recent hamstring, and the offense was still lacking the precision of their Finals conquest of Miami. Three-point shooting, while still among the league's best, is down more than three percentage points. The Spurs are also playing at about two possessions slower per game, no small thing.
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Much hinges on whether Parker and his entourage of sharpshooters find their rhythm in time for a late-season push. The talent and pedigree haven't gone anywhere, but those kind of things don't count for much without the electric offense that outpaced such formidable competition a season ago.
It certainly doesn't help that said competition has improved fairly dramatically since the last go-around.
Before one begins contemplating how LeBron James' relocation changes potential Finals pairings, the bigger concern is whether San Antonio has what it takes to slow down the Warriors or keep pace with the much-improved Memphis Grizzlies.
And with James Harden having an MVP-caliber season for a Houston Rockets team that's quietly replaced Chandler Parsons with Trevor Ariza, Josh Smith and Corey Brewer, there's no guarantee the Spurs can again secure home-court advantage in the opening round of the playoffs—especially with the Clippers, Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder soon pursuing some March and April magic of their own.
The litany of capable Western Conference foes is nothing new, but that doesn't mean this season will mirror those that came before it.
A winning streak or two could propel the Spurs to a top-four seed, particularly with injuries to Dwight Howard and Blake Griffin potentially derailing two of the organization's principal obstacles. On the other hand, a few more losses could pit San Antonio against the Phoenix Suns in a bid to hold off OKC from breaking into the postseason bracket.
The risk of complacency further complicates a discussion this team rarely has to have. Are these Spurs motivated and driven enough to replicate last season's heroics? Without the bitter taste of 2013's Finals defeat shadowing every loss this season, perhaps losing has become a bit easier to stomach.
The Verdict
Setting psychoanalysis aside, this team is still good enough to contend—and one has to believe its deeply rooted professionalism will elicit just enough fight as the Spurs progress deeper into their 2014-15 campaign.
Moreover, it's no coincidence San Antonio seems to figure things out more often than not. In his 15th All-Star season, Tim Duncan remains a pivotal anchor on both ends of the floor. Parker and sixth man Manu Ginobili continue to excel even as contributors like Leonard incur a greater share of the scoring burden.
The second unit is as dangerous as ever, all the more so since spark plug Patty Mills returned from offseason shoulder surgery. San Antonio's bench is averaging 40.3 points per contest, the fourth-best mark, according to HoopsStats.com.
By and large, the formula still seems to be working, even if the desired results remain somewhat elusive. Climbing up the standings might be unfamiliar territory for a franchise that's spent so much time perched at or near the very top.
But adversity isn't unknown to the San Antonio Spurs—nor is overcoming it.
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