San Francisco 49ers: Jim Tomsula Must Buck History to Succeed

Jim Tomsula has a very difficult road ahead of him replacing Jim Harbaugh as head coach of the San Francisco 49ers.  Harbaugh leaves the NFL with the fifth-highest winning percentage of all time—the fourth-highest if you only include the modern Super Bowl era.

Harbaugh, in a radio interview with Tim Kawakami, confirmed one fact about the coaching change and implied another.  Harbaugh confirmed the decision to part was not mutual, as had been insisted by Jed York and Trent Baalke.  Rather, Harbaugh was informed that he would not be the head coach anymore after the December 14 loss in Seattle—the “mutual” part of it came with Harbaugh agreeing to step down at the end of the year rather than publicly be fired.

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He also implied that people on the inside were lobbying for his job before the end of the season, though he refused to answer any specifics on the subject.  He made a point of thanking the “loyal coaches," with a heavy emphasis on the “loyal” part of the equation.  When asked if Tomsula was setting himself up to be the 49ers’ new coach at the time, Harbaugh replied, “That’s a good question for him,” and CSN Bay Area reports three other former assistant coaches confirmed Tomsula wasn’t included in that group of “loyal” coaches.

Evidence of a conspiracy to get Harbaugh fired, or sour grapes from someone who would have liked to continue coaching the team?  We’ll never know for sure, though I have a feeling the truth lies somewhere between the two viewpoints—Harbaugh’s not thrilled he was fired, and Tomsula saw the opening and made it known he’d be interested in the job.  It’s bound to be one of those he-said, he-said things, however, and we’ll never really know how everything went down behind the scenes.

If Tomsula did make it known that he wanted to be the one to succeed Harbaugh, however, he has set himself up in a very unenviable position.  Replacing ultra-successful coaches like Harbaugh has not historically been a recipe for long-term success.

PAUL SAKUMA/Associated Press

The best-case scenario, and presumably the one Jed York and company have in mind, is a transition similar to the one between George Seifert and Steve Mariucci after the 1996 season.  Seifert had had issues with then-owner Eddie DeBartolo, York’s godfather.  Failure to agree on a contract extension caused Seifert to opt to leave with one year left on his deal.

When you’re going from a coach with a great deal of success, like Seifert, to a relatively unknown name with only one year of head coaching experience, like Mariucci, you could expect some turmoil among the veterans on the roster.  Instead, Mooch’s teams rolled along, making the playoffs in each of the next two seasons before injuries and salary-cap trouble gutted the team in 1999.

The franchise has already gotten the requisite statements of support from team stars like Colin Kaepernick and Anquan Boldin, so there’s some early buy-in.  It’s not unheard of for great coaches to be replaced and keep things going, either—besides Seifert to Mariucci, you can look at examples like John Madden to Tom Flores in Oakland in the 1970s and even the Bill Walsh to Seifert move, if you stretch Tomsula’s experience a bit.

However, that’s not the most common scenario.  Looking at some of the coaches with high winning percentages, like Harbaugh’s, gives you a number of very poor outcomes.

Vince Lombardi, who won five titles with the Green Bay Packers from 1959-1967, was replaced by Phil Bengtson.  You’ve never heard of the Bengtson Trophy, because he lasted just three years in Green Bay, compiling a 20-21-1 record before being fired.  Green Bay didn’t make back-to-back playoff appearances again until Mike Holmgren took over the franchise in 1992.

George Allen was replaced twice, once after going 49-17-4 with the Los Angeles Rams and once after going 67-30-1 with the Washington Redskins.  His replacement in Los Angeles, Tommy Prothro, lasted just two years, and his replacement in Washington, Jack Pardee, lasted just three.  Neither made the playoffs.

CLIFF SCHIAPPA/Associated Press

The legendary George Halas was ultimately replaced in Chicago by Jim Dooley when he finally stepped away from coaching for good in 1967.  Dooley never made the playoffs, nor did his immediate successor.  It took until Mike Ditka took over in the 1980s before the Bears were regularly contenders again.

Don Banks of Sports Illustrated lists several other examples I hadn’t thought of: Ray Handley taking over for Bill Parcells and the New York Giants.  Gunther Cunningham replacing Marty Schottenheimer in Kansas City.  Richie Petitbon subbing in for Joe Gibbs in Washington.  Bud Grant’s replacement in Minnesota, Hank Stram’s replacement in Kansas City, Mike Shanahan’s replacement in Denver and so forth.  It’s a murderer’s row of unsuccessful first-time coaches.

Of course, many of these names have more jewelry than Harbaugh ever managed to assemble—Lombardi, Halas, Stram, Parcells and Shanahan all won championships, and Harbaugh never did.  Perhaps we’re putting Harbaugh on too high of a pedestal when we compare him to names like that—after all, Tomsula is, in essence, replacing a guy who never could "win the big one," if you want to phrase it like that.

That seems to be Jed York’s motto, as he has said the sole goal of the franchise is to win Super Bowls.  That is true, when you look at it in the most simplistic way—the best you can do as an NFL team is to win the Super Bowl, and that’s what every team is trying to do.

However, it’s not very practical to say it’s the only goal.  Thirty-one teams a year do not win Super Bowls—does he really mean to suggest that 31 teams are not successful?  Yes, being the New England Patriots right now is the goal of any NFL franchise, but being a consistent contender like the Green Bay Packers, Denver Broncos or even Cincinnati Bengals is worth something as well.  Do you think fans in Buffalo, Oakland, Cleveland or St. Louis, none of whom have seen the playoffs in the past decade, look at the Jim Harbaugh era and call it not a success?

Maybe Harbaugh’s lack of Super Bowl success doesn’t quite put him with the John Maddens and Vince Lombardis of the world, as his winning percentage would indicate, but it still puts him in a very high group of coaches—only 40 coaches in NFL history are 25 or more games above .500, and only six active coaches have that distinction.

So, maybe Tomsula’s not facing the same challenges as whoever replaces Bill Belichick will face, but it’s still a very tall order without the Super Bowl-or-bust attitude York outlined.  History does not reflect kindly on his chances of keeping everything running smoothly.

Tomsula better buck historical trends, or it won’t be long before San Francisco fans are looking at the Buffalos, Oaklands, Clevelands and St. Louises of the world with envy, rather than the other way around.

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers.  Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.