5 Free Agents Who Won't Be Signing with the San Francisco 49ers
If the eternal truism “you always want what you can’t have” applies to the NFL, then the San Francisco 49ers technically want every single free agent on the market.
Because that's just what happens when you spend $6 million more than what you actually have.
According to Spotrac.com, the 49ers rank 29th out of 32 teams by already having $6,419,937 committed above the league-wide salary cap. Former NFL agent Joel Corry believes that number could reach as high as $8,500,000, via Kevin Lynch of SFGate.com.
Either way, only the New Orleans Saints, Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots exist further in the red.
If the Niners merely coveted a mid-level wide receiver at market value, they’d have to clear eight figures off the books.
But hey—why sign Kenny Britt or Eddie Royal when you can bring back Ricardo Lockette? It’s not like the Seattle Seahawks want the guy who arguably cost them a second straight Super Bowl title.
Notwithstanding the remaining four-plus weeks before the official cap becomes set on March 10, there’s only so much money that 49ers president Paraag Marathe can make available. General manager Trent Baalke will thus have few resources to woo available gridiron assets.
Yet what dictates financial limits in real life doesn’t impose any such effect in the land of wishful thinking. Both Niners fans and the front office alike can still revel in dreams of hypothetical additions.
So even though there’s a slim chance of these guys inking a contract in San Francisco, it’s still worth highlighting who they are and why they’ll land on another NFL squad.
With a nearly affordable star in the making like wideout Jeremy Maclin on the outside or in-house stalwart Mike Iupati mauling at left guard from within, how could it not be?
Here are the five bigger-name free agents who won’t be signing with the 49ers this offseason.
5. Chris Culliver, Cornerback
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While not the biggest of names on the free-agent market, this latest selection is plenty big in the eyes of the 49ers.
Cornerback Chris Culliver has steadily progressed for San Francisco since being drafted 80th overall in the 2011 NFL draft. He has increased his production all three seasons, culminating in a career-high four interceptions, 15 pass breakups and the No. 14 ranking among 108 corners graded by Pro Football Focus in 2014.
Despite missing two games himself, he stepped up especially this year in the wake of Tramaine Brock’s constant injuries and the team’s injury-plagued secondary as a whole.
Notwithstanding his collapse in Super Bowl XLVII and injury-negated 2013 season, Culliver is living up to his potential as a former third-rounder out of South Carolina.
But with elevated statistical achievements come increased financial earnings.
Culliver’s rookie contract is up. A deal that ranked 151st out of 255 NFL corners, per Over the Cap, will no longer suffice.
And the 6’0”, 199-pounder, of course, won’t re-sign on the cheap.
For context, Brock signed a four-year, $14 million contract before the 2014 season. Niners president and chief negotiator Paraag Marathe allocated $4,550,000 worth in guaranteed money, with the total value ranking 35th among the 200-plus corners.
Yet Brock was also an undrafted free agent out of small-school Belhaven College back in 2010. Culliver played in the SEC—college football’s elite conference—and made it to the highest level via a third-round ticket.
So instead of any similar team-friendly terms being reached, the 49ers must watch as their No. 2 corner plays elsewhere in 2015.
And if the San Francisco Chronicle’s Kevin Lynch has it right, via SFGate.com, cap restraints could push both Culliver and fellow starter Perrish Cox to pastures not colored in red and gold.
4. Jared Odrick, Defensive Tackle
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If Justin Smith retires, the 49ers are in trouble.
If Jim Tomsula can’t coax the “Cowboy” into finishing out the last year of his contract, then the 49ers and their new head coach will no longer have the services of the team’s most important defensive player.
Smith helps control the line of scrimmage and frees up the linebackers and secondary to make plays. He also stuffs opposing running backs and notches several sacks each season. Pro Football Focus graded him no lower than 16th and as high as No. 1 overall three times among 3-4 defensive ends since he came to the Niners in 2008.
He was indeed the fundamental conduit through which the entire defense functioned.
But for the purposes of this discussion, let’s presume that Smith won’t return. And when adhering to the latter part of the military axiom “hope for the best, but prepare for the worst,” San Francisco must also anticipate life without a capable replacement to No. 94.
Jared Odrick has been a productive player for the Miami Dolphins since being drafted 28th overall in 2010. He averaged over five sacks, 33 tackles and two pass breakups from 2011-13. PFF more recently qualified him as the No. 19 interior tackle among the 81 graded.
That said, the Dolphins have also consistently misused their former first-round pick.
Odrick has lined up at tackle on Miami’s 4-3 front for each of his five NFL seasons. But at 6’5”, 301 pounds, he is better suited for defensive end on a 3-4 unit.
He possesses the length and power to engage offensive tackles while also having the size and strength to effectively rush the quarterback up the middle. He would help set outside contain in the run game and occupy multiple blockers so ‘backers NaVorro Bowman, Patrick Willis and others could make plays.
Odrick is by no means near the upper-echelon caliber of Smith. But in a 2015 campaign that will unlikely feature both he and Ray McDonald, the 49ers need someone whose skill set falls somewhere in between and a veteran to help third-year man Tank Carradine.
Unfortunately, they’re swimming in cap overages, and Odrick is due for a raise. A base salary of around $3 million is a reasonable number—one that would be doable for most teams.
San Francisco just isn’t one of them.
3. Mike Iupati, Left Guard
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Projecting the eventual departure of Mike Iupati in free agency would have merited expulsion from 49ers fandom in the not-so-distant past.
Any thought of letting arguably the league’s pre-eminent left guard walk, not to mention disbanding the front-line triumvirate of Joe Staley, Iupati and Anthony Davis, would have been labeled as gridiron heresy among the Niners faithful.
The interior mauler who earned one First Team All-Pro and three straight Pro Bowl nods since 2012 wasn’t going anywhere. The 6’5”, 329-pound lineman whom Pro Football Focus bestowed top-five grades in run blocking in all but one year was staying put for good on the team that drafted him 17th overall in 2010.
But even an essential piece in a run-oriented Niners offense can deteriorate and experience a down year. And for Iupati, that was 2014.
Despite ranking second overall for his work in the ground game, the former first-round pick produced his worst season yet in pass blocking. He surrendered a league-high seven sacks among NFL guards and a career-worst 31 quarterback pressures.
Nagging injuries, indecision by Colin Kaepernick and a total lack of cohesion up front created a scenario in which Iupati failed as a pass-protector. A contract extension that was once a foregone conclusion now remains slim at best for the fifth-year pro.
The Sacramento Bee’s Matt Barrows offers the following:
"Iupati, who was voted to his third straight Pro Bowl, could be the premiere offensive lineman in free agency this season, which would nearly guarantee he isn't back with the 49ers. The team likes to use mid-round picks on interior linemen -- they probably will do so this year, too -- and have stockpiled players at the position. A pair of 2014 third-rounders, Marcus Martin and Brandon Thomas, could compete for Iupati's left guard spot.
"
With the return of Daniel Kilgore at center, Martin, perhaps the cream at that position among last year’s class, and Thomas, the first-round talent who redshirted in 2014, provide the Niners with two intriguing and capable options at left guard. Martin could start right away while the coaching staff grooms his third-round teammate for a future role.
Plus, why pay upward of $50 million—and $15 million guaranteed—over half a decade to one player at one position when you have already locked up two starters and a backup for about one-fifth of that total price? (We send our thanks to the fine folks at Over the Cap for facilitating that breakdown.)
Simple economics dictate that 49ers chief negotiator Paraag Marathe will opt for the former and avoid doling out such a monster extension.
Iupati, as such, won’t be signing with San Francisco this offseason.
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2. Julius Thomas, Tight End
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Welcome to another case of why basketball players can suddenly transform into great tight ends and pricey free agents.
Julius Thomas played collegiate ball for his first three years at Portland State. He didn’t even so much as consider football until his senior season.
Following the mold of great NFL tight ends Antonio Gates and Jimmy Graham, Thomas tried out for the Vikings football squad—made it—and became the 129th overall pick of the Denver Broncos in 2011.
Unlike those other power forwards on the hardwood, Thomas didn’t find instant success in the NFL. But after a couple of years worth of seasoning under Denver’s coaching staff, the 6’5”, 246-pounder with the 35.5-inch vertical has thrived when healthy.
Thomas has earned consecutive Pro Bowl nods the past two seasons. After compiling 65 catches for 788 yards and 12 touchdowns, he matched that scoring total in 2014 despite starting three fewer games and recording 372 fewer snaps, per Pro Football Focus.
He was on pace for an absurd 29 touchdowns when he had racked up nine through the Broncos’ first five games. A debilitating ankle injury and Peyton Manning utilizing his umpteenth other weapons limited Thomas to three scores over the final eight contests.
But it’s that domination in the red zone that would make him such a tremendous addition to the 49ers.
Thomas is a hardworking touchdown machine who consistently produces when on the field. He was tied with both Gates and Rob Gronkowski for the scoring lead among tight ends despite logging 38 and 64 fewer targets, respectively. He also knows his limitations and prevents them from costing his team.
In short, Thomas is everything that Vernon Davis is not.
The fifth-year pro with the solid hands and crazy-long wingspan would indeed mesh well in play-action sets in the 49ers’ power-run system. Colin Kaepernick could get away with some inaccuracy and not worry about his tight end constantly dropping passes.
Plus, for all the flack that analysts give Thomas for his deficiencies, he actually notched the eighth-highest pass-blocking efficiency rate. PFF notes the 97.4 percent he earned after surrendering just three quarterback hurries in 88 pass-blocking snaps.
Alas, as a “candidate to be overpaid on the open market” with a substantial contract extension, per Rotoworld, Thomas just isn’t a feasible acquisition for the 49ers. He’ll command a lot of years and a whole lot of dollars from any number of teams flush with cash and salary-cap flexibility.
Even Davis’ tenuous status in San Francisco won’t make room for the prolific scorer.
Now, does that also hold for a similarly productive wide receiver?
1. Jeremy Maclin, Wide Receiver
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Remember when Philadelphia Eagles wideout Jeremy Maclin tore his right ACL in a training camp practice in July of 2013?
Do you recall at about this time last offseason when talks of a prove-it year surrounded Maclin after he missed the 2013 season and would become a free-agent prospect—and possible fit for the 49ers—in 2015?
Not only did the oft-injured 19th overall pick in 2009 prove it—he shattered every conceivable expectation.
Maclin amassed career highs with 85 catches on 143 targets for 1,318 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns on a 15.5-yard average. He ranked eighth in yards and seventh in scores among league-wide pass-catchers.
The 6’0” speedster had previously totaled double-digit touchdowns back in 2010. But never had he averaged more than 13.8 yards per catch or eclipsed the 1,000-yard threshold.
The diligent statisticians at Pro Football Focus honored him with the No. 14 ranking among 110 NFL receivers. Logging the fewest drops (one) while registering the seventh-most targets cemented that top-15 standing.
Absolutely thriving despite facing the pressure of being the Eagles’ unquestioned No. 1 wideout in a contract year clearly showed Maclin’s upper-echelon worth.
And with his value skyrocketing to such elevated proportions, the 49ers’ chances of signing the former Missouri standout commensurately plummeted.
Jeff McLane of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that “Maclin is likely seeking a five-year deal that would net over $50 million, with over $20 million guaranteed.” Even if the Eagles don’t fork over an extension right away, the mutually interested parties will happily settle with a franchise tag until they can agree upon the appropriate long-term figures.
Unfortunately for the 49ers faithful, San Francisco isn’t one of those said parties.
The same cash-strapped team that Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com says won’t “engage in a bidding war” for Michael Crabtree and that wants “to run the ball a lot [more] next season” will in no way focus its attention on the pursuit of Maclin.
The 49ers, as has been the case for the past decade, will predictably enter next season without the services of a true No. 1 wideout.
All team and player statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise noted. All contract information courtesy of Spotrac and Over the Cap. Advanced metrics provided by Pro Football Focus.
Joe Levitt is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, waxing academic, colloquial and statistical eloquence on the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him on Twitter @jlevitt16.
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