Analyzing New England Patriots' Best Trade Options with 32nd Pick in NFL Draft
"The New England Patriots have traded their pick."
The odds are relatively high that those eight words will be spoken in succession on draft day. The Patriots have traded out of their pick on a relatively consistent basis, and although they stayed put last year in their selection of Florida defensive tackle Dominique Easley, it's impossible to ignore their history (trades in the first round in the 2008, 2009, 2010, 2012 and 2013 drafts).
Usually they move down in the draft to acquire more picks, but in 2012, they diverted from their typical strategy in the selection of defensive end Chandler Jones and linebacker Dont'a Hightower when they traded up in the draft to select both players.
The Patriots are about as unpredictable as they come when it comes to the draft, but here's a look at some of their options with the 32nd overall pick, using Pro Football Talk's draft-pick value chart.
32nd Overall Pick for 49th and 80th Overall Picks from Kansas City Chiefs
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Trading a first-round pick for a second and a third would be a Belichickian move if there ever was one.
Belichick and Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid were consistent bedfellows on draft day during Reid's run in Philadelphia. The two exchanged calls in 11 straight drafts from 2001-2011, even making a random trade where the Patriots moved down one pick and the Philadelphia Eagles moved up one pick in 2011 to keep the streak alive.
The Patriots have plenty of top-tier talent, but their bigger issue is a lack of depth at a few key positions such as linebacker and tight end. It wouldn't be a bad idea for the Patriots to add picks in a draft that should be middle-heavy at those two positions.
32nd Overall Pick for 53rd, 85th and 117th Overall Picks from Cincinnati Bengals
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Andy Dalton has been with the Cincinnati Bengals for the length of a full presidential term, but he has yet to prove he is worthy of holding office by winning a playoff game.
The Bengals may not necessarily be in the market for another quarterback after giving Dalton a six-year, $96 million contract that ensures he'll be with the team through the 2015 season, so it may be time to take a real shot at the board and make some noise in the draft by making two first-round selections.
This would be another typical Belichick move, as the Patriots have fleeced teams in the past when the end of the first round rolls around.
In 2013, the Minnesota Vikings gave up four draft picks—second-, third-, fourth- and seventh-round selections—to move into the 29th spot in the draft and select wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson. The Patriots went on to use those picks for linebacker Jamie Collins, cornerback Logan Ryan, wide receiver Josh Boyce and running back LeGarrette Blount (via trade).
The 53rd (370 points), 85th (165 points) and 117th (60 points) picks are valued at a combined 595 points, which is only five points north of the value of the 32nd overall pick (590 points). If the Bengals want to move into this spot, this is probably the price they'll have to pay.
32nd Pick for 39th Overall Pick and 2016 2nd-Round Pick from the Chicago Bears
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Bill Belichick has no qualms about exploiting a team that is willing to mortgage the future for a shot at the present. In the 2011 NFL draft, the Patriots traded the 28th overall pick to the New Orleans Saints in exchange for their second-round pick that year and a first-round pick the following year.
New general manager Ryan Pace could be eager to get the team headed in the direction he sees fit sooner than later, and that would mean an aggressive move to improve the roster.
The 39th overall pick is valued at 510 points, and the average value of a second-round pick is 443.7 points, so the Patriots would be getting the better end of the deal, but that's the price of admission for moving up into the first round. That's especially true now with the added value of first-round picks and the fifth-year option on their contracts.
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32nd Overall Pick for 50th and 81st Overall Picks from Buffal Bills
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Would Bill Belichick and Rex Ryan really become trade partners? Never say never. The Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys executed a trade in last year's draft, so nothing is out of the question.
That being said, the Buffalo Bills are without a first-round pick, so it would make sense that they would want to get into the back end of the first round, but they would also be hamstrung without picks on the second day of the draft.
Ryan's New York Jets career began with a trade up in the first round, and it also began without a high number of draft picks. If this trade comes to fruition, that will become a pattern in Ryan's tenures as head coach.
This trade would give the Patriots two second-round picks and two third-round picks, which would surely be valuable chips on Day 2 of the draft.
32nd and 96th Overall Picks for the 25th Overall Pick from the Carolina Panthers
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Just when you think you know Belichick in the draft, he proves that you have no idea. When you think he'll zig, he zags. When you think he'll zag, he zogs. No, zog is not a thing. Belichick will make it a thing just to confuse everyone.
Thus, while we have exhausted many of the trade-down scenarios, let's tap into one of the scenarios that might unfold if the Patriots like a player who is falling to them.
The Carolina Panthers have finally fought their way out of salary-cap jail—they were $16 million over the cap before the 2013 season, according to ESPN.com's Pat Yasinskas and now have $12 million in cap space this offseason, according to Spotrac. If they want to stay in the clear of the salary cap, they'll have to continue to build through the draft.
The Panthers' pick is valued at 720 points, where the Patriots' two picks are valued at 706. The value is in the ball park, and a late-round pick might be the tipping point to get this deal done.
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