Portland Trail Blazers Schedule Breakdown and Record Predictions for February
The Portland Trail Blazers and their fans surely let out a heavy sigh of relief as January came to a close.
That was brutal.
Portland went just 6-9 through the month, with the team's offense and defense struggling without key contributors. Robin Lopez has since returned while Joel Freeland remains sidelined for a few more weeks with a shoulder injury.
With the big man back in the lineup, the Blazers are 2-0 and look to be on the upswing in February. The team can start fresh and leave their poor start to 2015 in the rearview mirror. They'll play just nine games this month, with six coming against strong Western Conference teams.
Portland has struggled to compete with such teams to this point, going 13-13 against teams with above-.500 records. It isn't a terrible mark given the injuries and comeback wins the Blazers have endured, but it could be a notch higher to elevate their status as a championship contender.
They'll certainly have the chance to do so in February as we break down their matchups week-by-week before highlighting a key game. The All-Star break will slot right in the middle, which will not only give the team time to recharge its batteries but also for guys like Nicolas Batum and LaMarcus Aldridge to rehab some nagging injuries.
Let's get the ball rolling, Rip City.
Week 1: Feb. 2 to Feb. 8
1 of 5
Feb. 3 vs. Utah Jazz (home)
Feb. 5 vs. Phoenix Suns (home)
Feb. 7 vs. Dallas Mavericks (road)
Feb. 8 vs. Houston Rockets (road)
Key Matchup: Houston Rockets
The Blazers already netted two victories so far, topping the Utah Jazz 103-102 as Damian Lillard missed two free throws (one being intentional) late to seal the win. That doesn't sound quite right, but that was the reality.
Portland also shut down the Phoenix Suns 108-87 as the team really looked like itself for perhaps the first time in a number of weeks. The Suns shot just 38.6 and 26.1 percent from the field and from three-point range, respectively, which was a major turnaround from a 51.1 percent clip in a 118-113 loss on Jan. 21.
Coming up, the Blazers will head to Texas to take on the Dallas Mavericks and the Houston Rockets. Either could be named as the key matchup, but Portland has a bit of a thing with the latter team as opposed to the Mavs.
Dallas is a mighty opponent offensively, but it will still be without point guard Rajon Rondo as he recovers from a head injury, according to ESPN.com. The Blazers were able to clamp down on the Mavericks early in the season, winning 108-87 on Nov. 6. That was a long time ago, but Batum and Aldridge should be able to limit the scoring of Chandler Parsons and Dirk Nowitzki, respectively.
The duo combined to shoot 11-of-30 from the field while Lopez held rebounding specialist Tyson Chandler to just three boards in 29 minutes. Given that the personnel will largely be the same, there isn't any reason to expect a different result. It might not be a blowout like late last year, but Portland ultimately has the upper hand with Rondo out.
As such, it'll come down to the Rockets as the key matchup.
Last season's playoff series between the two exists as some competitive banter, but a blowout loss in December will serve as motivation for Portland. Houston dropped the Blazers 110-95, as Portland struggled to compete without Lopez and Aldridge.
It'll be the Rockets that are shorthanded this time around while Portland will be at full strength. Dwight Howard will be sidelined for a number of weeks due to a knee injury, but it'll still be a tough game, as both teams rank near the top of the league in both offense and defense.
In addition, this game could give the Blazers some leverage in the standings. At this point, Houston ranks No. 3 in the West with Portland close behind at No. 4. There's only a marginal difference in their win-loss records, hence it could vault the Blazers ahead of the Rockets to reclaim a spot in the upper echelon of the conference.
Predicted Record: 4-0
Week 2: Feb. 9 to Feb. 15
2 of 5
Feb. 11 vs. Los Angeles Lakers (home)
Key Matchup: Take a guess...
This will be an important part of the Blazers' schedule this month. And it has nothing to do with the Los Angeles Lakers (sorry, Laker Nation).
L.A. has been a notable opponent for Portland despite the lack of talent to the roster. A 98-94 victory on Jan. 5 required some late "Lillard Time" heroics while the 106-94 win was similar, as the point guard scored 17 of his 34 points in the final period.
Lopez missed both games, but his place in the lineup this time around will pay major dividends for his team. His presence on both ends of the court makes an enormous impact, acting as a screen-and-roll partner with any perimeter player and as an interior defender at the rim.
The Lakers allow 106.0 points per game, which ranks No. 29 in the league. Portland has averaged 105.5 points since Lopez's return, but the scoring could go even beyond that against such poor defense. The Blazers must be vigilant, though, as Los Angeles can hit shots and push the game to a tempo that's easy to fall into.
But even so, Portland has the offense, defense and talent to overwhelm a struggling team like the Lakers.
This stretch leading up to and into the All-Star festivities will be crucial for Batum, Aldridge and Lopez to rest their injured wrist, thumb and hand, respectively. All three have been playing regular minutes and starting as per normal, but there are moments when it's clear any and all are struggling.
Batum is shooting career-low percentages of 38.3 from the field and 27.9 from downtown. To this point, he ranks as the worst long-range shooter among qualifying players in the NBA. It'll certainly be a tiresome stretch for the swingman, not only pushing through the drought physically but mentally as well.
It can't be easy seeing shot after shot clang off the back iron.
Batum is a hugely understated part of Portland's championship puzzle, truly playing as the primary distributor in pick-and-roll situations with Aldridge and Lopez as well as an off-ball shooter to space the floor. His scoring is crucial, no matter how sporadic thus far. He's a much better shooter than advertised and has exponentially increased his long-range shooting percentage each month.
It's no coincidence that the Blazers are 15-3 when Batum scores in double figures this season.
Alongside that, it's crucial Aldridge and Lopez get to full strength or something close to that. It goes without saying that both are instrumental pieces going forward (duh), and Portland can't afford to go long stretches without either.
Predicted Record: 1-0
Week 3: Feb. 16 to Feb. 22
3 of 5
Feb. 20 vs. Utah Jazz (road)
Feb. 22 vs. Memphis Grizzlies (home)
Key Matchup: Memphis Grizzlies
The Blazers' win over the Jazz on Feb. 3 was a little too close, as Utah almost beat Portland at its own game. It had more made field goals, more offensive rebounds, less turnovers and shot 46.2 percent from three-point range. Lillard shot 0-of-6 from three-point range but still managed to be efficient by shooting 10-of-11 from inside the arc.
Utah's star power couldn't get the job done despite Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors and Trey Burke going for 27, 20 and 18 points, respectively. You could point to the Blazers adjusting to life with Lopez, as he made his long-awaited return with 11 points and six rebounds in 25 minutes.
The Jazz are an up-and-coming team and showcased their future ability against the Blazers. This rematch might be just as tough though Portland should ultimately prevail.
But regardless of the result, the focus should be squarely on the Memphis Grizzlies.
The Blazers are 0-2 against this team so far, shooting 40.2 percent from the field on Nov. 28 and 38.7 percent on Jan. 17 while allowing above 50 percent shooting by the Grizzlies in both games. Aldridge and Lillard have both struggled at different junctions, shooting well in one game while the other falters.
Wesley Matthews, on the other hand, has had some of his best scoring come against Memphis, averaging 25.5 points while shooting 52.9 percent from the field and 53.8 percent from long range. He's sunk at least seven threes in both games and could potentially be an X-factor for Portland in this game.
If Matthews can get hot early, the defensive game plan could rotate more attention his way, in turn making things easier to run the offense. He's clearly benefited from the Grizzlies' rotations on his teammates and slipped under the radar.
Portland will only have a fighting chance if it defends well, though, even if only to keep up if the offense slips. This game will be very important, not only because of the inter-conference matchup but because of the boost a win could give the Blazers' reputation.
The Blazers have fallen out of the conversation as one of the West's best teams, suffering through last month with a dismal record. As such, topping a powerhouse squad like Memphis would return some respect Portland's way.
Rip City is still No. 4 in the conference, but it's mostly due to an easy schedule to open the season. The going will get tough to close it out leading up to the playoffs, and this game is an example. But snatching a win would boost this team's credibility and confidence going forward.
But that's much easier said than done.
Predicted Record: 1-1
Week 4: Feb. 23 to Feb. 28
4 of 5
Feb. 25 vs. San Antonio Spurs (home)
Feb. 27 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (home)
Key Matchup: San Antonio Spurs
Once again, we face an intersection where either team could be the key matchup. The Oklahoma City Thunder pose divisional rivalry and All-Star notability, but the San Antonio Spurs get the nod.
Portland was swiftly dealt with versus this team in the playoffs last year, with every loss in the 4-1 series coming by double digits. The Spurs' experience and flawless execution crushed the up-tempo and exciting Blazers, teaching the young'ins a thing or two.
So far this season, Portland has gone 2-1 against them, but those victories come with a small asterisk. A 108-95 win on Dec. 15 was without Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili while the triple-overtime victory on Dec. 19 saw Parker and Kawhi Leonard sidelined.
The Spurs' "Big Four" was reunited on Jan. 16, slamming the Blazers 110-96 with 15 offensive boards and 34 assists.
Much like a win over the Grizzlies, snagging one here against a full-strength San Antonio team would be huge. Portland has already gone 2-0 against the Thunder though Kevin Durant missed both due to injury.
To this point, the Blazers haven't had too much luck in beating out fully healthy Western Conference contenders. Their records against the conference (16-10) and above-.500 teams (13-13) aren't terrible but could be reasonably better to elevate their contender status.
A win against either San Antonio or Oklahoma City would do just that, but both at full strength are very different teams compared to those Portland succeeded against earlier in the season.
It might be a little overstated, but these wins will mean a lot come playoff time. The Blazers could feasibly go into the postseason and still compete, but having a solid track record against contending teams will mean a lot.
Predicted Record: 1-1
Can Portland Get Back on Track?
5 of 5
As we move into February, the Blazers are almost complete once again. The team still awaits the return of Freeland though Meyers Leonard and Chris Kaman have the reserve frontcourt spots locked down until that time comes.
Lopez being back is a huge boost for the team, and it's showed in the small sample size of two games this month. It'll truly be evident against teams like Houston, Memphis and San Antonio, though.
Despite the tough competition, Portland should do well in February. The offense and defense are strong enough to challenge many, but the latter two teams above are a rung or two above Rip City at this point. Shutting either down for a victory would surge the Blazers' status as a contender, proving they well and truly can keep up with the big boys.
It'll take a stronger stretch of play from Lillard than that of last month, where he shot just 37.1 percent from the field and 28.1 percent from beyond the arc. Aldridge might be the team leader and alpha dog on offense, but his point guard is just as important.
The long break in the middle of February might mean more to Portland than any other team, as it looks to rest and rehab key players for the stretch run. It'll also mean a chance to hit the reset button and start fresh going forward, breaking out from January's slump and getting the early-season confidence back.
The team's final record is only in sight if that resurgence happens, but the Blazers can be outright dominant on both ends when everything is clicking.
Let's go, Rip City.
Predicted Final Record: 7-2
All statistics courtesy of ESPN.com unless otherwise noted.
