Should Miami Heat Shut Down Their Playoff Chase with Dwyane Wade?
The Eastern Conference is bad enough at the back end that the Miami Heat can be ripped apart by injury and still compete for a playoff spot.
But if Miami has visions of contending for something substantial with the Chris Bosh-Dwyane Wade core, it has to figure out how to lift its ceiling higher than a one-and-done postseason appearance. And that isn't going to happen by making only a cameo in basketball's biggest dance.
"They're well behind the elite teams in the Eastern Conference and will have their work cut out just to make the playoffs," Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal wrote of the Heat. "... It's better to continue focusing on this upcoming offseason, when Pat Riley can make moves that strengthen the team's prospects for the 2015-16 campaign."
The Heat need to build something formidable, and that process starts with a fairly substantial roster renovation. The injury bug has already kicked off the demolition phase of the project.
Miami was never really able to see the impact of prized offseason addition Josh McRoberts before a torn meniscus abruptly ended his 2014-15 campaign after only 17 appearances. As frustrating as his loss was, it was still one Heat fans could stomach. There was only so much grieving to be done for a player they were still getting to know.
But Miami's latest setback has hit with the force of a pre-face-tattoo Mike Tyson uppercut. Wade, the face of the franchise and unofficial czar of Miami-Wade County, has once again been sidelined by a leg injury.
He suffered a strained right hamstring during Tuesday's 109-102 loss to the Milwaukee Bucks, and initial testing showed he could be out "for an extended period," according to Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel.
Heat coach Erik Spoelstra provided an update on Wade's status but couldn't say how long the star 2 guard would be out, per Bleacher Report's Ethan Skolnick:
If that injury sounds familiar, it should: Wade has battled issues with both hamstrings recently.
"The hamstring is the same one that sidelined Wade for several games last season," noted Tom D'Angelo of The Palm Beach Post. "He also has dealt with hamstring issues this season, missing nine games—seven in November and two on Miami's recent West Coast trip—with a problematic left hamstring."
Wade, whose extensive injury history also includes problems with his shoulder, knees, ankle and migraine headaches, has missed double-digit games for the fourth consecutive season.
Despite that fact, the Heat never bothered to safeguard themselves against more injury issues with Wade.
Miami started the season with veteran Shannon Brown backing up Wade, but the 29-year-old was waived after playing only five games. That was one more appearance than undrafted rookie Andre Dawkins made before he too was given his walking papers.
Tyler Johnson is reportedly on his way back for another 10-day contract, per Winderman, but he played a total of two minutes during his first stint in South Beach. Miami will have to work out a rotation between Mario Chalmers, Norris Cole, Shabazz Napier, James Ennis and Danny Granger, but the first three are point guards and the last two are natural forwards.
"It's almost incomprehensible that the Heat have such limited depth on the wing," Winderman wrote, "with Mario Chalmers the best answer at shooting guard behind Dwyane Wade, and with little beyond Granger who has even a modicum of trust at backup small forward."
With that type of "depth," the Heat would struggle to replace even an average NBA starting shooting guard. And Wade, obviously, is so much more than average when he's healthy.
He leads the Heat in points (21.4 per game) and assists (5.4). His 22.5 player efficiency rating trails only surging center Hassan Whiteside's 26.9 mark among Miami's regulars. The Heat haven't been great when Wade plays (minus-0.2 points per 100 possessions) but have been a train wreck without him (minus-5.1 points per 100 possessions).
Miami is missing several irreplaceable weapons from its arsenal. The Heat don't have another player who creates offense for himself and his teammates like Wade, nor a player who provides both shooting and passing from the 4 like McRoberts.
Making matters worse, the Heat's injury report also includes versatile forward Luol Deng (calf) and instant-energy center Chris Andersen (elbow/back).
"It's just so difficult and disappointing not to be at full strength or at least 75 percent," Chris Bosh said, per Joseph Goodman of the Miami Herald. "... We don't even have a steady lineup to work with, so nobody is getting in rhythm, nobody is getting used to anything and we're dealing with the consequences."
The Heat are beat-up—physically, mentally and emotionally. And given their issues at point guard and paper-thin perimeter ranks, they weren't the most talented lot to begin with.
Still, something won't allow Miami to wave the white flag. Maybe the Heat feel the need to prove they're capable of enjoying some type of success without LeBron James. Perhaps it's simply a matter of a veteran group—led by ultra-competitive president Pat Riley and confident coach Spoelstra—too proud to accept defeat.
Whatever the reason, something is keeping the fire burning in Biscayne Bay.
"Nobody is feeling sorry for themselves," Spoelstra said, per Goodman. "We are still in a position where we can do something."
But do what exactly? Prove they can keep their heads above water in the cesspool that is the Eastern Conference cellar? What would that accomplish?
Despite holding only a two-game cushion over the ninth-seeded Brooklyn Nets, the Heat might have to try to miss the postseason.
Both the Charlotte Hornets and Detroit Pistons have lost their starting point guards to serious injuries (Kemba Walker and Brandon Jennings, respectively). The Nets are 3-11 in 2015. The Boston Celtics are in the middle of a fire sale. The Indiana Pacers are lost without injured All-Star Paul George, and the Orlando Magic still look a year or two away.
It's hard to tell what's going on with the New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers behind the clouds of smoke from those dumpster fires.
Miami isn't that bad, but it has to start thinking about pulling a few strings and embracing the loss column. There are some potentially valuable rewards at the end of that painful but necessary path.
The Heat need more talent. Even at full strength, this looks like a group with a best-case scenario of sneaking into the second round.
Finding more help won't be easy, though, unless the Heat start pursuing that goal now.
Their first-round pick belongs to the Philadelphia 76ers, but not if it falls inside the top 10. This roster badly needs an injection of youth. Whiteside looks like Miami's top prospect, and he'll be 26 already in June. Napier and Ennis turn 24 and 25, respectively, in July, which is a frightening thought given how much seasoning they apparently need.
If the Heat can fall into the bottom third—they are 3.5 games away from the league's 10th-worst record—they'll at least have a chance at drafting and developing a key piece of their future.
So how could Miami orchestrate that nosedive? By doing two things: exercising as much patience as possible with Wade's recovery and converting its veterans into assets on the trade market.
Deng might be the most attractive piece, potentially bringing back a late first-rounder from a contender desperate for a forward. It might sound like a risky move, but the 29-year-old could wind up leaving for nothing this summer if he declines his $10.1 million player option for 2015-16.
Andersen could be another player to watch. He might be a fan favorite, but he's also a 36-year-old who has missed 16 of Miami's 45 games and is on the books for $5 million next season. If some team would give up a pick or a prospect to get him, that's a move the Heat should make.
Cole is reportedly already on the Pistons' radar, as league sources told Northeast Ohio Media Group's Chris Haynes. He'd be an easy sacrifice for Miami, and the same goes for Chalmers.
There are plenty of ways to label this approach, few of which sound remotely appealing: tanking, surrendering, etc. But call it what really is—proactive planning—and suddenly it doesn't sound so bad. Besides, dealing Deng and resting Wade wouldn't fit the description of a typical tank job. The Heat would simply be cutting their losses.
With perennial All-Stars like Wade and Bosh around, the Heat don't need to do a complete teardown. But substantial tweaks must be made; that was true even before Wade's latest trip to the training room.
The Heat are right to want to salvage their season—but this one doesn't need saving. When the present looks this bleak, it's time to shift focus to the future.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com. Salary information obtained via HoopsHype.com.
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