Teams That Could Poach Free Agent Draymond Green Away from Warriors This Summer
Draymond Green is sending Golden State Warriors owner Joe Lacob an unvoiced message, the gist of which is: Open that wallet, Joey.
For his part, Lacob would be wise to heed those unspoken words this summer, because if the Warriors don't break the bank for Green, another team will.
None of which implies Green, an impending restricted free agent, is the most dangerous flight risk out there. The Warriors can match any offer he fields, which they will almost assuredly do. He is vital to their present-day dominance and can defend all five positions. He joins DeMarcus Cousins as the only other player averaging at least 11 points, eight rebounds, three assists, one steal and one block per game.
“I really think he's going to be a max player," ESPN NBA color analyst Jeff Van Gundy said of Green during a Jan. 9 broadcast, per ESPN.com's Ethan Strauss. "How many guys defend, rebound, pass and make threes? That combination, you just don't see."
Strauss then expanded on the issue Van Gundy brought to light:
"If Van Gundy’s right, if this does indeed happen, it would have to mark a sea change in the business of basketball.
"
We’re talking about a second-round pick who’s shorter than 6-6 in socks, who doesn't jump high, create his own shot or dominate the ball. A rookie max deal for a scrappy 'tweener' averaging the fourth-most points per game on his team? Basketball doesn’t work that way -- yet. This summer will be a good test of whether teams pay big for a guy who does all the 'little things.'
A max-contract offer is certainly not out of the question with the salary cap expected to explode in 2016. And if Green is tendered one, the Warriors will have a dilemma on their hands.
The projected luxury-tax threshold for 2015-16 is $81 million. The Warriors have almost $77.5 million in guaranteed contract commitments next season. That's before factoring in Marreese Speights' $3.8 million team option and, most notably, Green's new contract.
Coming up with potential poachers is a matter of identifying teams most likely to throw a max contract Green's way, forcing the Warriors to choose between losing him, footing an exorbitant tax bill or holding a salary-shredding sale of some kind.
These threats will have a need for two-way wing players. They'll also need to have serious cap space as of now or the means to create it later. And finally, they'll need to hope the Warriors inevitably prioritize flexibility over Green—knowing full well said hope is the longest of long shots.
Los Angeles Lakers
1 of 5
If we're being wholly and brutally honest, there isn't a position the Los Angeles Lakers don't need to fill.
No, they're not about to funnel tens of millions of dollars into the shooting guard spot with Kobe Bryant and Nick Young combining to take home $30.2 million next season. But with Bryant aging—not to mention done for the season again—and Young being Young, this is a team that needs talent, plain and simple.
Green qualifies as talent and valuable talent at that. He fits into any offensive model as someone who passes and plays off the ball, both of which are required from anyone planning to coexist beside Bryant.
More than anything, the Lakers need someone like Green to cover up for Bryant's demonstrative defensive decline. There have been moments where he's air tight, but Bryant has been mostly awful this side of 2013.
Opponents were shooting 2.4 percentage points above their average when being guarded by him at the time he went down. And he was allowing rival shooting guards to post an 18.2 player efficiency rating against him, per 82games.com.
The Lakers were also allowing 115.6 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor. That would rank as the worst defensive rating in NBA history.
Splurging on Green would give them a top-tier defender who can guard inside and out. Opponents are shooting 5.6 percentage points below average with him on their case, including a minus-8.6 on three-pointers.
Poaching Green means the days of Bryant (unsuccessfully) chasing the other team's best scorer would be over. That itself is enough to get Kobe Bryant, the free-agent whisperer, to come out and peddle Lakers lore this offseason.
New York Knicks
2 of 5
New York Knicks President Phil Jackson has cap space this summer, and we're going to assume he'll know how to use it. The Knicks themselves will also need to assume Carmelo Anthony is every bit as persuasive as he claims.
“I don’t think that'll be an issue, just as far as me trying to persuade guys to come play in New York and play for the Knicks despite kind of getting them to overlook what’s going on right now,” Anthony said, per ESPN New York's Ohm Youngmisuk. “I think I’m a good salesman."
Trying his hand at Green would not be a bad idea.
Anthony, Tim Hardaway Jr., Cleanthony Early and Jose Calderon are the only guaranteed contracts on the ledger for next season. If the Knicks find a way to dump Calderon, they're looking at around $30 million in spending power after factoring in their first-round draft pick and requisite cap holds.
Although the Knicks have abandoned—or at least massively manipulated—the triangle offense in recent weeks, it's safe to say they'll give it a more thorough go once a long-term core is in place. That puts catch-and-shoot weapons at a premium, especially with Anthony still in tow.
Nearly half of Green's shot attempts have been spot-up three-pointers, of which he's hitting 35.2 percent. While that shouldn't strike you as highly lethal, it's more than adequate. We're also talking about a player who hit just 33.6 percent of those same shots last season. At 24, playing through just his third NBA season, he's still improving.
His value to New York's defense, meanwhile, cannot be overstated.
Super surprisingly, the Knicks rank fifth in rim protection, despite a dearth of shot-blockers. Substandard three-point prevention is at the heart of their 28th-place defense; they allow a league-worst 39.2 percent clip from long range. Green is holding rival players to 26.5 percent shooting from beyond the arc.
All of which means Anthony better practice his sales pitch. Green is worth his time.
Houston Rockets
3 of 5
Finding a floor-spacing power forward to play alongside Dwight Howard and James Harden has proved problematic for the Houston Rockets.
Terrence Jones hasn't played since Nov. 3, Donatas Motiejunas isn't shooting well from deep (30.8 percent) and Josh Smith has failed to crack a 23 percent success rate as well. Green converts a respectable number of his treys off the catch, and his do-everything defense ensures the Rockets' fourth-ranked blockade won't be compromised.
Having signed Trevor Ariza last summer, Green wouldn't seem to be a viable option. The Rockets' 14th-place offense has been underwhelming in comparison to last season's bucket-blazing brigade, and Bleacher Report's Ric Bucher has said general manager Daryl Morey is in the market for an impact point guard.
Still, Morey is unafraid to abort course on a whim. One day, the Rockets are banking on Chris Bosh and Chandler Parsons; the next, they're pushing forward with Ariza. Plans change when the Rockets have flexibility.
There are only $59 million in guaranteed deals on the their books for next season. With the salary cap expected to hit $66.5 million, they already have wiggle room as currently constructed. It's not enough to make a legitimate pitch to Green, but Corey Brewer, Clint Capela, Terrence Jones, Joey Dorsey and Motiejunas will all be on expiring deals or have qualifying offers for 2016-17, making them easy to dump.
Rolling with the cheaper Smith and Jones is absolutely a possibility. Again, the Rockets need a point guard, so they will likely try to fill that hole. But so long as they have the means to create cap space, they're a threat to chase any free agent of note.
Including Green.
Toronto Raptors
4 of 5
Think about what it would mean for the Toronto Raptors' brand if they snagged one of this summer's top free agents. They've already retained Kyle Lowry, flexing their muscles in the incumbent-appeal circle. Getting Green to even sign an offer sheet would be some next-level awesomeness. Drake would totally rap about it.
It doesn't hurt that the Raptors have a need for Green, either. Their defense has been abysmal this season. It ranks 19th in points allowed per 100 possession and 22nd over the last 14 games. During this time, the team is 6-8.
Pinpointing the Raptors' exact pitfalls is admittedly difficult. On any given night they struggle keeping point guards out of the paint and chasing wings or stretch forwards off the three-point line.
Nabbing Green gifts them with a player who can solve any issue. He's quick enough to defend point guards, athletic enough to pester explosive wings and burly enough to wage battle with traditional power forwards and centers.
That he's also capable of corralling eight rebounds a night is huge. The Raptors have just one player doing that right now (Jonas Valanciunas), and they rank 24th in defensive rebounding percentage. Making a legitimate play for Green, then, strengthens their greatest weaknesses. Better still, making a play for Green is totally possible.
Amir Johnson, Landry Fields, Lou Williams, Tyler Hansbrough and Chuck Hayes are all coming off the ledger this summer, leaving the Raptors with just $48.2 million in commitments. Though that number will undoubtedly rise, general manager Masai Ujiri is dangerous when afforded plasticity of any kind; Toronto's impending flexibility makes him really dangerous.
Beware of the Raptors.
New Orleans Pelicans
5 of 5
Anthony Davis needs a friend, and Green would be a great secret-handshake partner.
As luck would have it, the New Orleans Pelicans also need Green. They rank 22nd in defensive efficiency, 21st in rim protection and 27th in points allowed in the paint, per TeamRankings.com. They're also giving up at least two PER points at point guard, shooting guard and small forward, according to 82games.com.
Landing Green would help turn them into a defensive force. He frees Davis up to focus on policing the paint and gives the team someone who can make life hell for opposing perimeter players.
Equally important, Green helps the Pelicans stave off implosion when Davis leaves the floor. Once he sits down, the Pelicans go from the Portland Trail Blazers' net-rating doppelganger, to the Knicks' fraternal twin. (That's not good.)
Pursuing Green comes crammed with caveats, though. Eric Gordon is a lock to exercise his $15.5 million player option, so the Pelicans are going to have $56.2 million invested in six players for 2015-16. To create enough room for Green, they'll need to sell off one or two parts.
This would ideally entail finding one team to absorb Gordon's deal. Realistically speaking, they'll have to get creative, perhaps using Tyreke Evans or Jrue Holiday as a buffer to dump their injury-prone shooting guard.
Whatever the cost, it's worth exploring. The Pelicans have only one untouchable player in Davis, and they need to begin the process of properly rebuilding around him.
Going after his perfect complement in Green would be a nice start.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com and are accurate as of games played Jan. 26, 2015 unless otherwise cited. Salary information collected from HoopsHype.
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