Philadelphia Eagles: Odds of Each Offensive Player Returning in 2015

If last offseason showed Philadelphia Eagles fans anything, it’s that there are no guarantees in the National Football League. Fresh off his third Pro Bowl berth, which saw him put up career bests in all major receiving numbers, the organization cut ties with 27-year-old DeSean Jackson.

If anything, that puts everyone on notice, especially star players earning significant 2015 cap hits. The easiest way to know if a player will be back next season is consider whether he’s under contract; if he’s a productive player and signed for a reasonable amount (and there aren’t any off-the-field issues), it’s likely he will return.

The issues arise for free agents, whether restricted or unrestricted, and those players whose cap hits represent more than their worth at this point in their career. Some players may be asked to take a pay cut to remain with the Eagles; others will be flat out released.

*All contract figures are per Overthecap.com.

Quarterback

Nick Foles

You have to know new director of player personnel Chip Kelly will put forth a valiant effort to draft his college quarterback, Marcus Mariota, but it seems likely the only way Nick Foles isn’t on the 2015 roster is if he’s dangled as trade bait to a quarterback-needy team like the St. Louis Rams or Houston Texans. After all, even if Kelly acquired Mariota, he would probably still have Foles start ’15 while Mariota learns the offense.

Foles’ four-year rookie contract carries through next season, and by virtue of being a third-round draft pick, the Philadelphia Eagles will only owe him $815,880, which is less money than long snapper Jon Dorenbos will earn.

Whether he’s the long-term answer at quarterback remains bleak, but expect Foles to be under center for this team in Week 1 of ’15.

Odds of Returning: 95 Percent

Mark Sanchez

Mark Sanchez actually played better under Chip Kelly than he’s ever played with the New York Jets. He saw significant increases in all major passing statistics, notably completion percentage, yards per attempt and passer rating. Sanchez won four of his eight starts, which really isn’t too bad for a backup quarterback facing a difficult schedule.

Sanchez’s arm strength was a glaring concern, but he did show impressive mobility. He’s a free agent again, having signed just a one-year deal with the Eagles last offseason. If Kelly can draft Marcus Mariota, Sanchez won’t be back.

Otherwise, I don’t think Kelly would have any problem with bringing back Sanchez, who is probably a top-five backup quarterback in the league. In fact, if you go through every roster, you could make a strong case that Sanchez is the best backup quarterback in the NFL.

Odds of Returning: 50 Percent

Matt Barkley

Chip Kelly took a shot in the dark when he grabbed Matt Barkley in the fourth round of his first-ever NFL draft, and so far, there’s no evidence to suggest Barkley can ever play in this league.

He’s been mightily exposed in limited stretches when he’s had to play, and his career passer rating of 43.7 would make JaMarcus Russell blush. Barkley suffered a serious shoulder injury in college, and it may have zapped much of his arm strength, because he doesn’t currently possess close to an NFL arm.

Releasing him will affect the salary cap very little, and there seems to be little hope of ever trading Barkley away for a draft pick.

Odds of Returning: 40 Percent

Running Back

LeSean McCoy

Last year, Chip Kelly made arguably his boldest coaching decision thus far when he jettisoned three-time Pro Bowl wide receiver DeSean Jackson, cutting him outright without receiving any compensation or draft picks via trade.

There’s been some speculation that Kelly may do the same with McCoy, a star talent whose $11.9 million cap hit for 2015 ranks second among all running backs.

Several factors suggest McCoy will be back though; He’s still just 26 years old, he rushed for over 1,300 yards in a ‘down’ year in 2014 and it’s reasonable to anticipate a return to superstardom with his offensive line back to full health for next season. It’s not like the Philadelphia Eagles are paying top dollar for a quarterback either, so paying McCoy what he’s due shouldn’t be a problem.

Odds of Returning: 80 Percent

Darren Sproles

Credit general manager Howie Roseman for his tremendous trade last offseason to acquire Darren Sproles; the Eagles parted with just a fifth-round pick in return for a multidimensional all-purpose back who made his first Pro Bowl as a punt returner.

Sproles may be 31 years old, but he was the team’s most valuable player for the first several weeks, seemingly turning in a 50-plus yard play every game. His touches dwindled as the season went on, which was certainly odd, but he’s still an integral part of this offense.

In fact, Kelly signed Sproles to a contract extension before he ever played a snap with the Eagles. Sproles has several good seasons of football left in him, and he will absolutely be back in 2015.

Odds of Returning: 95 Percent

Chris Polk

Back in preseason, Chris Polk’s lingering hamstring injury seemed to threaten his odds of even making the 53-man roster; Polk ended up not just making the team but stealing goal-line carries from a one-time 20-touchdown scorer in LeSean McCoy. Polk carried the ball just 46 times but scored four touchdowns. That gives him seven career rushing touchdowns on only 57 attempts, which means he’s prolific at finding the end zone.

Polk is a third-year player who saw his 2012 draft stock plummet due to a shoulder injury; fortunately, the Eagles recognized his talent and took a gamble on him as an undrafted free agent. Polk is a restricted free agent, which means other teams can step in and match the Eagles’ deal to Polk.

Per NJ.com’s Eliot Shorr-Parks, it’s reasonable to expect Polk’s 2015 base salary to be between $1.4 and $2.1 million, which is a lot of money to commit to a third running back. Factor in what the Eagles are already paying to McCoy and Sproles, and it’s no guarantee that Polk does return next season.

Odds of Returning: 60 Percent

Wide Receiver

Jeremy Maclin

Last offseason, Jeremy Maclin gambled upon himself. Fresh off a torn ACL that cost him all of the 2013 season, he turned down a five-year deal with the Philadelphia Eagles to take a one-year contract. It worked to a charm, as Maclin roughly duplicated DeSean Jackson’s ’13 numbers, finishing at 85 catches, 1,318 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Re-signing Maclin should be an easy decision, but apparently, that’s not the case. Per NJ.com’s Eliot Shorr-Parks, Maclin and the Eagles have struggled to agree on contractual figures and optimism that the team re-signs him is fading.

That would be disastrous for the Eagles, as they would lose Pro Bowl receivers in consecutive seasons. Jordan Matthews would be miscast as a No. 1 receiver, and neither Riley Cooper nor Josh Huff produced when called upon last year. If Philadelphia can’t agree with Maclin on a new deal, Eagles fans better hope there’s a serious run at free agents Demaryius Thomas or Dez Bryant, or that the team signs a probable veteran cut like Vincent Jackson or Larry Fitzgerald.

Odds of Returning: 65 Percent

Riley Cooper

Riley Cooper was terrible in 2013. Fresh off a five-year, $22.5 million contract in the offseason, Cooper failed to get any separation from opposing cornerbacks all season, rating dead-last by Pro Football Focus’s ratings among 110 qualifying wide receivers.

The problem is that the Philadelphia Eagles are locked into Cooper’s contract for at least one more year. If the team cut him now, they would pay $6.2 million in dead money; They’ll pay him $4.8 million to be on the roster in 2015. There’s no reason to expect the Eagles will pay more money for Cooper not to be on the team than for him to be on the roster. And he offers zero trade value with that contract.

Odds of Returning: 95 Percent

Jordan Matthews

As a second-round rookie in 2014, Jordan Matthews was one of the more productive first-year players in the NFL. He thrived as a slot receiver, hauling in 67 receptions for 876 yards and eight touchdowns. Just nine other rookie receivers in history have put up those numbers.

Matthews may see an increased role this coming season, especially if Jeremy Maclin leaves. Either way, Matthews should start to take Riley Cooper’s snaps on the outside.

Odds of Returning: 99 Percent

Josh Huff

It was a vastly disappointing season for Josh Huff, who struggled to provide much on the offensive side of the ball despite being a third-round pick. Huff’s worst statistic was his dropped pass total of four, especially considering he was targeted just 17 times all year.

Still, there’s reason to think Huff can be a productive part of the team going forward. He played for Chip Kelly at Oregon. He’s shown he can be explosive with the ball in his hands (just think of his 107-yard kick return touchdown). He’s blessed with fairly good size. And he’s likely going to get an increased role going forward, especially since this should be Riley Cooper’s last season with the team.

Odds of Returning: 95 Percent

Brad Smith/Jeff Maehl

Neither of those players see the field much as a wide receiver, as they combined for just 143 snaps on offense, so I grouped them together here.

Brad Smith offers a veteran presence as a special teams player, and he scored a touchdown this year on a blocked punt return (he also was responsible for the kick return gaffe in the second Dallas game). Jeff Maehl did attend Oregon, which is likely the main reason he’s on the roster.

Odds of Returning (Smith): 50 Percent

Odds of Returning (Maehl): 40 Percent

Tight End

Brent Celek

Brent Celek is one of the potential salary-cap casualties for the team, given that he’s due to make $4.8 million in 2015 and saw his receiving numbers decline this past season.

Still, he’s a fan favorite, a tremendous blocker and Chip Kelly has never been shy in his praise for Celek.

"

Chip Kelly seemed to take exception to the idea that Zach Ertz should get more snaps. He considers Brent Celek best blocking TE in NFL

— Zach Berman (@ZBerm) November 19, 2014"

Celek’s cap hit isn’t enough that the team should ask him to restructure, and it would be a surprise if he’s not back next season.

Odds of Returning: 75 Percent

Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz was curiously underutilized for much of 2014 until his breakout game against Washington, when he became the second tight end in NFL history to record 15 receptions in a single game.

Ertz finished the season 11th in yards (702) among tight ends, and he should improve upon those totals next season. Ertz has been criticized for his poor blocking, but he is actually rated by PFF as the sixth-best run-blocking tight end in the NFL among 67 qualifiers.

Odds of Returning: 99 Percent

James Casey

James Casey was one of the first free-agent players Chip Kelly signed upon becoming head coach, but Casey hasn’t played many offensive snaps in either of his two seasons. This is likely due to the emergence of 2013 second-round draft pick Zach Ertz, and that will make Casey expendable.

Casey is due to earn $4 million in 2015 with no dead-money hit if he’s released. He’s an easy cap casualty unless the team asks him to take a big pay cut.

Odds of Returning: 25 Percent

Trey Burton

Trey Burton was just an undrafted rookie free agent in 2014 who didn’t catch a single pass in his first year in the National Football League. Still, there’s reason to think he could become a solid contributor to the Philadelphia Eagles going forward.

Burton was a tremendous special teams player, even being named to the Pro Football Writers of America All-Rookie team for his special teams success. He rated by Pro Football Focus as the fourth-best special teams player out of over 1,200 qualifiers last year.

Burton also showed his versatility in handling five carries out of the backfield, a rare achievement for a tight end. Given his low salary ($510,000), he should be in line to make the 2015 roster.

Odds of Returning: 70 Percent

Offensive Line

Jason Peters

With seven Pro Bowl selections, Jason Peters is now establishing himself as one of this generation’s finest offensive tackles. He’s not quite the pass protector that Orlando Pace or Jonathan Ogden were in their primes, but he’s extremely athletic and can get to the second level in run-blocking with ease.

Peters rated by Pro Football Focus as the NFL’s best all-around offensive tackle in 2014, grading out as a +38.2, which is the highest single-season grade of his career. Peters is due to make $9.05 million in ’15, the third-highest cap hit of any Philadelphia Eagles player, but his value to the team makes him worth that price.

Odds of Returning: 95 Percent

Evan Mathis

Like Jason Peters, Evan Mathis is one of the top performers in the game at his position. After rating as PFF’s best guard for three straight years (2011-’13), Mathis slipped to second this year. Then again, he was also injured for half the season, meaning he rated as the best guard in the league on a per-snap basis for the fourth consecutive season.

Last offseason, CSNPhilly.com reported Mathis wanted a new deal with the Eagles and that as a result, the team was ‘shopping’ him. Nothing happened from that though, and until we hear anything from Mathis, it should be assumed he’s returning in 2015, even at a high cap hit of $6.5 million.

Odds of Returning: 90 Percent

Jason Kelce

This is three offensive linemen so far, and all three are highly paid Pro Bowl players. Jason Kelce signed a six-year, $37.5 million extension last offseason, and he’s a perfect fit for the Chip Kelly system.

Kelce is undersized but extremely athletic, and he’s one of the top centers in the game. Without Kelce last year, running back LeSean McCoy struggled to duplicate his success from 2013. When Kelce returned, McCoy played significantly better.

Odds of Returning: 99 Percent

Todd Herremans

Here’s a likely veteran cut among the offensive linemen. The Philadelphia Eagles have one of the oldest offensive lines in the NFL, and 10-year veteran Todd Herremans may have played his last snap with the team.

He’s coming off a season-ending biceps injury, meaning he’s now missed at least eight games in two of the last three years. Herremans also didn’t rate particularly well when he played, finishing 57^th out of 78 qualifying PFF guards.

The Eagles got fine play from backup Andrew Gardner when he was forced to start, and Allen Barbre was signed to a three-year contract extension before last season. Unless Herremans is willing to take a sizeable pay cut, his tenure in Philadelphia is likely done.

Odds of Returning: 30 Percent

Lane Johnson

Chip Kelly’s first-ever draft pick as head coach bounced back from a season-opening four-game PEDs suspension to rate as Pro Football Focus’s second-best right tackle in 2014.

Johnson’s development as a pass blocker was remarkable; After surrendering 11 sacks and 60 total quarterback pressures as a rookie, he gave up just one sack and 28 total pressures in year two. He has the athleticism of a tight end, which is particularly effective in a 300-plus-pound body. Johnson is the left tackle of the future for this team.

Odds of Returning: 99 Percent

Allen Barbre

Entering the 2014 season, Allen Barbre would have been the first man up in the case of an injury to the offensive line. Barbre is a versatile player who can fill in at both tackle and guard, and he earned a three-year contract extension last offseason.

Unfortunately, Barbre underwent ankle surgery early in the season and was placed on injured reserve. Still, he’s likely to enter 2015 as the top backup, and he could push for Todd Herremans’ starting right guard spot.

Odds of Returning: 80 Percent

Andrew Gardner

The Philadelphia Eagles grabbed Andrew Gardner in free agency, then saw him fill in admirably when Todd Herremans was lost for the season due to injury.

Gardner allowed just 12 total pressures in half a season’s worth of games, and he will get every opportunity to win a starting job in 2015.

Odds of Returning: 75 Percent

David Molk

David Molk was the Philadelphia Eagles’ primary backup center in 2014, and Jason Kelce’s injury gave Molk the opportunity to start four games. Molk had his ups and downs, but notably, he didn’t give up a sack and he’s under contract at just $585,000 for next year. He’ll return as the backup center.

Odds of Returning: 75 Percent

Matt Tobin

Expectations were high entering the season that Matt Tobin could be a viable performer off the bench. After all, he led all offensive linemen in PFF’s total rating back in the preseason, and he can play both tackle and guard.

When he actually played, Tobin was exposed as a pass-blocker, surrendering seven quarterback hits and 11 hurries in 532 offensive snaps, per PFF. He will have to earn his roster spot next season.

Odds of Returning: 50 Percent

Dennis Kelly

There’s a pretty good chance the Dennis Kelly era doesn’t extend into the 2015 season. A fifth-round draft pick of Andy Reid’s back in ’12, Kelly doesn’t fit with the traditional mold of Chip Kelly’s versatile linemen that can play both tackle and guard—while Dennis Kelly did play guard before, 6’8” guards aren’t traditional.

Odds of Returning: 25 Percent