Philadelphia Eagles: Odds of Each Offensive Player Returning in 2015
If last offseason showed Philadelphia Eagles fans anything, itโs that there are no guarantees in the National Football League. Fresh off his third Pro Bowl berth, which saw him put up career bests in all major receiving numbers, the organization cut ties with 27-year-old DeSean Jackson.
If anything, that puts everyone on notice, especially star players earning significant 2015 cap hits. The easiest way to know if a player will be back next season is consider whether heโs under contract; if heโs a productive player and signed for a reasonable amount (and there arenโt any off-the-field issues), itโs likely he will return.
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The issues arise for free agents, whether restricted or unrestricted, and those players whose cap hits represent more than their worth at this point in their career. Some players may be asked to take a pay cut to remain with the Eagles; others will be flat out released.
*All contract figures are per Overthecap.com.
Quarterback
You have to know new director of player personnel Chip Kelly will put forth a valiant effort to draft his college quarterback, Marcus Mariota, but it seems likely the only way Nick Foles isnโt on the 2015 roster is if heโs dangled as trade bait to a quarterback-needy team like the St. Louis Rams or Houston Texans. After all, even if Kelly acquired Mariota, he would probably still have Foles start โ15 while Mariota learns the offense.
Folesโ four-year rookie contract carries through next season, and by virtue of being a third-round draft pick, the Philadelphia Eagles will only owe him $815,880, which is less money than long snapper Jon Dorenbos will earn.
Whether heโs the long-term answer at quarterback remains bleak, but expect Foles to be under center for this team in Week 1 of โ15.
Odds of Returning: 95 Percent
Mark Sanchez actually played better under Chip Kelly than heโs ever played with the New York Jets. He saw significant increases in all major passing statistics, notably completion percentage, yards per attempt and passer rating. Sanchez won four of his eight starts, which really isnโt too bad for a backup quarterback facing a difficult schedule.
Sanchezโs arm strength was a glaring concern, but he did show impressive mobility. Heโs a free agent again, having signed just a one-year deal with the Eagles last offseason. If Kelly can draft Marcus Mariota, Sanchez wonโt be back.
Otherwise, I donโt think Kelly would have any problem with bringing back Sanchez, who is probably a top-five backup quarterback in the league. In fact, if you go through every roster, you could make a strong case that Sanchez is the best backup quarterback in the NFL.
Odds of Returning: 50 Percent
Matt Barkley
Chip Kelly took a shot in the dark when he grabbed Matt Barkley in the fourth round of his first-ever NFL draft, and so far, thereโs no evidence to suggest Barkley can ever play in this league.
Heโs been mightily exposed in limited stretches when heโs had to play, and his career passer rating of 43.7 would make JaMarcus Russell blush. Barkley suffered a serious shoulder injury in college, and it may have zapped much of his arm strength, because he doesnโt currently possess close to an NFL arm.
Releasing him will affect the salary cap very little, and there seems to be little hope of ever trading Barkley away for a draft pick.
Odds of Returning: 40 Percent
Running Back
LeSean McCoy
Last year, Chip Kelly made arguably his boldest coaching decision thus far when he jettisoned three-time Pro Bowl wide receiver DeSean Jackson, cutting him outright without receiving any compensation or draft picks via trade.
Thereโs been some speculation that Kelly may do the same with McCoy, a star talent whose $11.9 million cap hit for 2015 ranks second among all running backs.
Several factors suggest McCoy will be back though; Heโs still just 26 years old, he rushed for over 1,300 yards in a โdownโ year in 2014 and itโs reasonable to anticipate a return to superstardom with his offensive line back to full health for next season. Itโs not like the Philadelphia Eagles are paying top dollar for a quarterback either, so paying McCoy what heโs due shouldnโt be a problem.
Odds of Returning: 80 Percent
Credit general manager Howie Roseman for his tremendous trade last offseason to acquire Darren Sproles; the Eagles parted with just a fifth-round pick in return for a multidimensional all-purpose back who made his first Pro Bowl as a punt returner.
Sproles may be 31 years old, but he was the teamโs most valuable player for the first several weeks, seemingly turning in a 50-plus yard play every game. His touches dwindled as the season went on, which was certainly odd, but heโs still an integral part of this offense.
In fact, Kelly signed Sproles to a contract extension before he ever played a snap with the Eagles. Sproles has several good seasons of football left in him, and he will absolutely be back in 2015.
Odds of Returning: 95 Percent
Chris Polk
Back in preseason, Chris Polkโs lingering hamstring injury seemed to threaten his odds of even making the 53-man roster; Polk ended up not just making the team but stealing goal-line carries from a one-time 20-touchdown scorer in LeSean McCoy.ย Polk carried the ball just 46 times but scored four touchdowns. That gives him seven career rushing touchdowns on only 57 attempts, which means heโs prolific at finding the end zone.
Polk is a third-year player who saw his 2012 draft stock plummet due to a shoulder injury; fortunately, the Eagles recognized his talent and took a gamble on him as an undrafted free agent.ย Polk is a restricted free agent, which means other teams can step in and match the Eaglesโ deal to Polk.
Per NJ.comโs Eliot Shorr-Parks, itโs reasonable to expect Polkโs 2015 base salary to be between $1.4 and $2.1 million, which is a lot of money to commit to a third running back.ย Factor in what the Eagles are already paying to McCoy and Sproles, and itโs no guarantee that Polk does return next season.
Odds of Returning: 60 Percent
Wide Receiver
Last offseason, Jeremy Maclin gambled upon himself. Fresh off a torn ACL that cost him all of the 2013 season, he turned down a five-year deal with the Philadelphia Eagles to take a one-year contract. It worked to a charm, as Maclin roughly duplicated DeSean Jacksonโs โ13 numbers, finishing at 85 catches, 1,318 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Re-signing Maclin should be an easy decision, but apparently, thatโs not the case. Per NJ.comโs Eliot Shorr-Parks, Maclin and the Eagles have struggled to agree on contractual figures and optimism that the team re-signs him is fading.
That would be disastrous for the Eagles, as they would lose Pro Bowl receivers in consecutive seasons. Jordan Matthews would be miscast as a No. 1 receiver, and neither Riley Cooper nor Josh Huff produced when called upon last year. If Philadelphia canโt agree with Maclin on a new deal, Eagles fans better hope thereโs a serious run at free agents Demaryius Thomas or Dez Bryant, or that the team signs a probable veteran cut like Vincent Jackson or Larry Fitzgerald.
Odds of Returning: 65 Percent
Riley Cooper
Riley Cooper was terrible in 2013. Fresh off a five-year, $22.5 million contract in the offseason, Cooper failed to get any separation from opposing cornerbacks all season, rating dead-last by Pro Football Focusโs ratings among 110 qualifying wide receivers.
The problem is that the Philadelphia Eagles are locked into Cooperโs contract for at least one more year. If the team cut him now, they would pay $6.2 million in dead money; Theyโll pay him $4.8 million to be on the roster in 2015. Thereโs no reason to expect the Eagles will pay more money for Cooper not to be on the team than for him to be on the roster. And he offers zero trade value with that contract.
Odds of Returning: 95 Percent
Jordan Matthews
As a second-round rookie in 2014, Jordan Matthews was one of the more productive first-year players in the NFL. He thrived as a slot receiver, hauling in 67 receptions for 876 yards and eight touchdowns. Just nine other rookie receivers in history have put up those numbers.
Matthews may see an increased role this coming season, especially if Jeremy Maclin leaves. Either way, Matthews should start to take Riley Cooperโs snaps on the outside.
Odds of Returning: 99 Percent
Josh Huff
It was a vastly disappointing season for Josh Huff, who struggled to provide much on the offensive side of the ball despite being a third-round pick. Huffโs worst statistic was his dropped pass total of four, especially considering he was targeted just 17 times all year.
Still, thereโs reason to think Huff can be a productive part of the team going forward. He played for Chip Kelly at Oregon. Heโs shown he can be explosive with the ball in his hands (just think of his 107-yard kick return touchdown). Heโs blessed with fairly good size. And heโs likely going to get an increased role going forward, especially since this should be Riley Cooperโs last season with the team.
Odds of Returning: 95 Percent
Brad Smith/Jeff Maehl
Neither of those players see the field much as a wide receiver, as they combined for just 143 snaps on offense, so I grouped them together here.
Brad Smith offers a veteran presence as a special teams player, and he scored a touchdown this year on a blocked punt return (he also was responsible for the kick return gaffe in the second Dallas game). Jeff Maehl did attend Oregon, which is likely the main reason heโs on the roster.
Odds of Returning (Smith): 50 Percent
Odds of Returning (Maehl): 40 Percent
Tight End
Brent Celek
Brent Celek is one of the potential salary-cap casualties for the team, given that heโs due to make $4.8 million in 2015 and saw his receiving numbers decline this past season.
Still, heโs a fan favorite, a tremendous blocker and Chip Kelly has never been shy in his praise for Celek.
"Chip Kelly seemed to take exception to the idea that Zach Ertz should get more snaps. He considers Brent Celek best blocking TE in NFL
โ Zach Berman (@ZBerm) November 19, 2014"
Celekโs cap hit isnโt enough that the team should ask him to restructure, and it would be a surprise if heโs not back next season.
Odds of Returning: 75 Percent
Zach Ertz
Zach Ertz was curiously underutilized for much of 2014 until his breakout game against Washington, when he became the second tight end in NFL history to record 15 receptions in a single game.
Ertz finished the season 11thย in yards (702) among tight ends, and he should improve upon those totals next season. Ertz has been criticized for his poor blocking, but he is actually rated by PFF as the sixth-best run-blocking tight end in the NFL among 67 qualifiers.
Odds of Returning: 99 Percent
James Casey
James Casey was one of the first free-agent players Chip Kelly signed upon becoming head coach, but Casey hasnโt played many offensive snaps in either of his two seasons. This is likely due to the emergence of 2013 second-round draft pick Zach Ertz, and that will make Casey expendable.
Casey is due to earn $4 million in 2015 with no dead-money hit if heโs released. Heโs an easy cap casualty unless the team asks him to take a big pay cut.
Odds of Returning: 25 Percent
Trey Burton
Trey Burton was just an undrafted rookie free agent in 2014 who didnโt catch a single pass in his first year in the National Football League. Still, thereโs reason to think he could become a solid contributor to the Philadelphia Eagles going forward.
Burton was a tremendous special teams player, even being named to the Pro Football Writers of America All-Rookie team for his special teams success. He rated by Pro Football Focus as the fourth-best special teams player out of over 1,200 qualifiers last year.
Burton also showed his versatility in handling five carries out of the backfield, a rare achievement for a tight end. Given his low salary ($510,000), he should be in line to make the 2015 roster.
Odds of Returning: 70 Percent
Offensive Line
Jason Peters
With seven Pro Bowl selections, Jason Peters is now establishing himself as one of this generationโs finest offensive tackles. Heโs not quite the pass protector that Orlando Pace or Jonathan Ogden were in their primes, but heโs extremely athletic and can get to the second level in run-blocking with ease.
Peters rated by Pro Football Focus as the NFLโs best all-around offensive tackle in 2014, grading out as a +38.2, which is the highest single-season grade of his career.ย Peters is due to make $9.05 million in โ15, the third-highest cap hit of any Philadelphia Eagles player, but his value to the team makes him worth that price.
Odds of Returning: 95 Percent
Evan Mathis
Like Jason Peters, Evan Mathis is one of the top performers in the game at his position. After rating as PFFโs best guard for three straight years (2011-โ13), Mathis slipped to second this year. Then again, he was also injured for half the season, meaning he rated as the best guard in the league on a per-snap basis for the fourth consecutive season.
Last offseason, CSNPhilly.com reported Mathis wanted a new deal with the Eagles and that as a result, the team was โshoppingโ him.ย Nothing happened from that though, and until we hear anything from Mathis, it should be assumed heโs returning in 2015, even at a high cap hit of $6.5 million.
Odds of Returning: 90 Percent
Jason Kelce
This is three offensive linemen so far, and all three are highly paid Pro Bowl players. Jason Kelce signed a six-year, $37.5 million extension last offseason, and heโs a perfect fit for the Chip Kelly system.
Kelce is undersized but extremely athletic, and heโs one of the top centers in the game. Without Kelce last year, running back LeSean McCoy struggled to duplicate his success from 2013. When Kelce returned, McCoy played significantly better.
Odds of Returning: 99 Percent
Todd Herremans
Hereโs a likely veteran cut among the offensive linemen. The Philadelphia Eagles have one of the oldest offensive lines in the NFL, and 10-year veteran Todd Herremans may have played his last snap with the team.
Heโs coming off a season-ending biceps injury, meaning heโs now missed at least eight games in two of the last three years. Herremans also didnโt rate particularly well when he played, finishing 57th out of 78 qualifying PFF guards.
The Eagles got fine play from backup Andrew Gardner when he was forced to start, and Allen Barbre was signed to a three-year contract extension before last season. Unless Herremans is willing to take a sizeable pay cut, his tenure in Philadelphia is likely done.
Odds of Returning: 30 Percent
Lane Johnson
Chip Kellyโs first-ever draft pick as head coach bounced back from a season-opening four-game PEDs suspension to rate as Pro Football Focusโs second-best right tackle in 2014.
Johnsonโs development as a pass blocker was remarkable; After surrendering 11 sacks and 60 total quarterback pressures as a rookie, he gave up just one sack and 28 total pressures in year two. He has the athleticism of a tight end, which is particularly effective in a 300-plus-pound body. Johnson is the left tackle of the future for this team.
Odds of Returning: 99 Percent
Allen Barbre
Entering the 2014 season, Allen Barbre would have been the first man up in the case of an injury to the offensive line. Barbre is a versatile player who can fill in at both tackle and guard, and he earned a three-year contract extension last offseason.
Unfortunately, Barbre underwent ankle surgery early in the season and was placed on injured reserve.ย Still, heโs likely to enter 2015 as the top backup, and he could push for Todd Herremansโ starting right guard spot.
Odds of Returning: 80 Percent
Andrew Gardner
The Philadelphia Eagles grabbed Andrew Gardner in free agency, then saw him fill in admirably when Todd Herremans was lost for the season due to injury.
Gardner allowed just 12 total pressures in half a seasonโs worth of games, and he will get every opportunity to win a starting job in 2015.
Odds of Returning: 75 Percent
David Molk
David Molk was the Philadelphia Eaglesโ primary backup center in 2014, and Jason Kelceโs injury gave Molk the opportunity to start four games. Molk had his ups and downs, but notably, he didnโt give up a sack and heโs under contract at just $585,000 for next year. Heโll return as the backup center.
Odds of Returning: 75 Percent
Matt Tobin
Expectations were high entering the season that Matt Tobin could be a viable performer off the bench. After all, he led all offensive linemen in PFFโs total rating back in the preseason, and he can play both tackle and guard.
When he actually played, Tobin was exposed as a pass-blocker, surrendering seven quarterback hits and 11 hurries in 532 offensive snaps, per PFF.ย He will have to earn his roster spot next season.
Odds of Returning: 50 Percent
Dennis Kelly
Thereโs a pretty good chance the Dennis Kelly era doesnโt extend into the 2015 season. A fifth-round draft pick of Andy Reidโs back in โ12, Kelly doesnโt fit with the traditional mold of Chip Kellyโs versatile linemen that can play both tackle and guardโwhile Dennis Kelly did play guard before, 6โ8โ guards arenโt traditional.
Odds of Returning: 25 Percent
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