Los Angeles Lakers Have Every Incentive to Turn Youth Loose
Midway through a season rife with frustration and cold, hard truths, the Los Angeles Lakers have every incentive to turn their youth loose.
This was always going to be a transition year for the storied Lakers. Free-agent strikeouts and Kobe Bryant's post-prime backslide loomed large entering 2014-15. Reality began setting in long before the season's opening tip: The Lakers weren't even close to a playoff team.
Still, a sense of mystery existed. No one quite knew where the Lakers would actually fall or how successful Bryant's march against time would actually be. Curiosity, coupled with the potential for surprise showings, kept full-on make-this-all-about-the-future talk at bay.
That mystery has since been solved, and now the Lakers are what they are: a team that finally needs to exploit its sorry state by making this season about the next one.
Part of that process is already underway and has been for a while. Rather than dole out pricey pacts to impact players over the summer, the Lakers took their shot, focusing on only the biggest names, standing mostly pat upon coming up empty.
Preserving that cap space was a way of prioritizing the future over the present. The Lakers will enter 2015 free agency flush with flexibility, ready to welcome the next superstar or two.
Byron Scott has been coaching this team as if it has actual expectations in the meantime. He's made some developmental-driven decisions—benching Jeremy Lin and Carlos Boozer, starting Ronnie Price and Ed Davis—but until recently, the Lakers were a Bryant-dependent squad playing experience over potential.
Subtle changes to the rotation haven't done anything to thaw Scott's heated approach either. He still expects his 11-win team to play better than an 11-win team.
"We were soft," Scott said following the Lakers' 114-89 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday night, per ESPN Los Angeles' Baxter Holmes. "[I have] a lot of respect for that team over there. They're a good team. I don't consider them a physical basketball team, but they came out and punched us, and we were soft, period."
Scott was not alone in his assessment.
"We played soft," Davis said. "That's all there is to it. We played soft."
Submissive, uninspired play isn't anything new in Los Angeles these days. Some might even say the Lakers have played with the intensity of toilet paper for months:
Falling to the Clippers is just the latest reminder that the Lakers aren't going anywhere. Their offense is unremarkable, they're 29th in defensive efficiency, and they're just 5-17 against opponents above .500.
Now, then, isn't the time to be playing Bryant 28 minutes in a blowout loss or 30 minutes every other night. The Lakers have started resting their shooting guard, but playing him extensively when he is available only puts him at risk of further injury.
Now isn't the time to hand Boozer 20-plus minutes every night, or worry about Lin's playing time, or expect Nick Young to labor through a sore right knee. Now is the time to experiment, to develop, to find answers.
Julius Randle, Ryan Kelly, Young and Bryant are the only players under guaranteed contract beyond this season. And with both Randle and Steve Nash done for the year, the Lakers have long-term openings at every position except shooting guard.
While certain holes can and will be filled in free agency, the Lakers aren't going to address every need by chasing other teams' players. They have prospects in Tarik Black, Jordan Clarkson and Davis to evaluate, some of whom might insert themselves into the big picture if given the opportunity.
And there is nothing to lose by offering the opportunity:
"Would like to see a lot more Jordan Clarkson & Tarik Black. This is an evaluation season. #Lakers
— Ethan Norof (@Mr_Norof) January 8, 2015"
Playing the 23-year-old Black over, say, Boozer won't help the Lakers win immediately, but they're not winning now. They're 10 games outside the playoff picture, perishing within an ultracompetitive Western Conference. Losing actually helps them more than winning does.
Phoenix owns the rights to Los Angeles' first-rounder this year but only if it falls outside the top five, per RealGM. The Lakers have the league's fourth-worst record as of now. The more they lose, the lower they fall; the lower they fall, the more likely it is they emerge from this loss-loaded campaign with a top-five pick for their endurance.
"The draft pick to Phoenix, if we don't give it to them this year, we have to give it to them next year, so I don't really see what the logic would be," said Lakers president Jeanie Buss on SiriusXM NBA Radio's Off the Dribble (via the Los Angeles Times). "Try to tank to keep it this year, because we'd just have to give it away next year—that doesn't resonate with me."
Indeed, the Lakers would have to send their first-rounder to Phoenix next year, when it's only under top-three protection. But retaining the pick this season goes a long way in ensuring it's less valuable for next season.
Draft an impact player, sign a few more and suddenly the Lakers aren't sending Phoenix a top-10 selection anymore. The difference in when they send it is only inconsequential if they see themselves being worse next season.
As Bleacher Report's Kevin Ding has reiterated time and again, regression isn't the plan. Progression through free agency remains the goal, and keeping their imminent first-rounder is yet another selling point—in addition to market, cap space and franchise lore—they can pitch to available talent.
Call this tanking if you must. But, truthfully, the Lakers could be bad enough to retain their draft pick even with Bryant playing 30 minutes regularly, Scott coaching for victories and only one player under 26 cracking 20-plus minutes per game.
| Kobe Bryant | 37 | 34.8 |
| Jordan Hill | 27 | 29.3 |
| Wesley Johnson | 26 | 28.5 |
| Jeremy Lin | 26 | 26.3 |
| Nick Young | 29 | 25.3 |
| Carlos Boozer | 33 | 25.3 |
| Ed Davis | 25 | 24.1 |
| Ronnie Price | 31 | 22.6 |
Just five teams won under 32 percent of their games last season. Only four are on pace to do the same in 2014-15, and the Lakers are one of them. Their standing won't get much worse no matter how minutes are distributed.
Five games already separate them from the Philadelphia 76ers and Minnesota Timberwolves, who are tied for the Association's third-worst record. The New York Knicks are likely out of reach too; they have 7.5 games on the Lakers for the league's worst record.
Trying to see if Davis' per-36-minute double-double holds over even more time or if Clarkson's scintillating distance shooting stays steady when averaging more than 12 minute per game safeguards the Lakers against usurping Boston, Orlando, Utah and Charlotte in the standings at best.
More than tanking, this shift in agenda is about seeing which lesser-known players, if any, are worth investing in. As Ding wrote:
"If Bryant is now ready to dial it down—and if Scott is going to lead accordingly despite still admitting he is going to have to 'fight that temptation' to rely so heavily on Bryant—then there is hope for these other guys to be more than furniture in the background on the Lakers' set. ...
The goal for some of the cast members now is to build lives for themselves and maybe even something for the Lakers' future. It can still go either way for guys with the potential of Ed Davis, Ryan Kelly and Lin.
"
In lieu of today, the Lakers have tomorrow. And though they don't yet know what tomorrow brings beyond cap space, letting loose what little youth they have will help them gain a better understanding of what it does and doesn't hold.
If additional losing and bruised egos (Boozer, Bryant, Young, etc.) are the end result, then so be it. Those are side effects of change the Lakers must be wiling to risk.
Such is the cost of looking forward.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com and are accurate as of games played Jan. 8, 2015.
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