Finding the Right Fit for a Reggie Jackson Trade Is Tougher Than You Think
Seeking out and then orchestrating the ideal Reggie Jackson trade is not a mindless undertaking for the Oklahoma City Thunder.
This of course assumes the Thunder are trying or open to trading him at all.
Basketball brainiacs went mad when Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski first reported that Dion Waiters was heading to Oklahoma City as part of a three-team blockbuster with the Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks. For a moment, it looked like Jackson, a budding fourth-year point man, would call New York home.
Then the full details came to pass, and it turned out Jackson wouldn't be going anywhere.
For now. Or maybe at all.
Actually moving him is that difficult.
Shifting Situation
Acquiring Waiters, yet another ball-dominant scorer, hasn't brought closure to the Jackson rumor mill. Speculation is still alive and well, more so than ever before, per CBS Sports' Ken Berger:
"The Knicks are expected to try to re-engage the Thunder in talks for point guard Reggie Jackson after being rebuffed in their efforts to land him in Monday night's three-team deal, sources say. Jackson would fit into the $2.6 million trade exception New York received in the trade with Cleveland and Oklahoma City, but the Thunder have been steadfast in rebuffing trade offers for the point guard.
"
Rumors and general conjecture were always going to find Jackson and the Thunder. The 24-year-old point man is months away from restricted free agency and the fat raise it promises.
History tells us that his raise won't come from the Thunder. They traded away both Jeff Green and James Harden before either could explore the semi-open market, perpetuating their long-held stance of "We won't pay the luxury tax—not even for a soon-to-be top-10 superstar like James Harden."
Concrete evidence to the contrary has yet to arise in this case. Jackson's production and status officially belie his $2.3 million salary, so keeping him in Oklahoma City will cost the Thunder a pretty penny.
Only 13 other players are averaging at least 15 points, five assists and four rebounds per game this season. Damian Lillard and Brandon Knight are the only other two—in addition to Jackson—earning under $10 million, and that's because they, like Jackson, are still on their rookie deals.
As always, gigantic caveats abound in this discussion. Jackson's per-game stat lines were exponentially padded during the absences of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, a wave he's still surfing.
Of those 14 total players, Jackson is also posting the third-worst true shooting percentage—an all-encompassing, weighted measurement of two-pointers, three-pointers and free throws—ahead of only inefficient gunners Tyreke Evans and Kobe Bryant.
Still, the market for Jackson's services will be fiercely expensive this summer. It's not a stretch to assume he'll clear $10 million annually on average, making it difficult for the Thunder to afford him.
The salary cap is expected reach $66.5 million for 2015-16, setting the luxury-tax threshold at $81 million, per Larry Coon, author of the ever-informative CBA FAQ Blog. The Thunder already have $69.7 million in guaranteed salaries on the books for next season following the Waiters trade.
Re-signing Jackson would bring them right at—or even take them past—$81 million. And with Steven Adams and Waiters both due for extensions in 2016 and Durant expected to hit the open market that same summer, such roster bills will likely be too steep for the Thunder to foot.
There's also the matter of Jackson's ego. Like Harden, he's been relegated to bench duty behind the Thunder's Terrific Two. He's playing starter-level minutes (32.1 per game), but he's been clear about intending to actually start.
"When I said 'command a team' I didn't mean be a temporary starter or anything like that," he said in November, per NewsOK.com's Berry Tramel. "Just trying to play my role while I'm here."
Jackson isn't the type of player the cash-conscious Thunder can justify prioritizing over financial flexibility, either. As Grantland's Zach Lowe writes:
"But Jackson isn’t Harden. He’s a nice player, but he’s shooting 27 percent from deep, and there are games when he looks reluctant to launch open 3s. Teams don’t guard him, and that can muck up the Thunder’s spacing. Jackson and Westbrook can make it work on both ends, but it’s not a clean fit, and the Thunder would be justified thinking they might be able to do better for less money.
"
Trading Jackson becomes a necessity if he's not married to his situation and the Thunder aren't chomping at the bit to pay him. Losing players for nothing—especially restricted free agents, since incumbent teams have the right to match any offer they receive—is prohibited practice.
Value, however sparse, must be gleaned from any and all departures. So while Berger says the Thunder have rejected outside overtures, there seems to be some wiggle room on that front, per Chris Mannix of Sports Illustrated:
Flush with ball-bearing scorers, there's no way Jackson is untouchable. And yet this is where further complications reveal themselves to the Thunder.
Fluctauting Value
Matching Jackson's value will be damn near impossible. The trade market isn't overrun with highly productive players on cheap contracts. Jackson's rookie-scale salary works against the Thunder in this sense. While obviously valuable, he alone doesn't earn enough to net the Thunder an impact player.
Pairing him with Kendrick Perkins' $9.2 million expiring contract would certainly make things interesting. Incoming salary can be up to 125 percent more plus $100,000 of the outgoing salary in any trade. Perkins and Jackson combine for an $11.5 million hit, allowing the Thunder to take back another player or players worth nearly $14.5 million.
But the Thunder are already shelling out more than $80 million in salary, pinning them to luxury-tax territory for the first time ever.
Past aversions to taxes suggest the Thunder will try to trim salary off their bottom line, not take on even more. After all, is a season in which they're fighting just to make the playoffs the same one in which they'll also tolerate towering tax penalties?
Any trade involving Jackson, then, would need to help the Thunder cut around $3.1 million from their ledger. If they were to ship out Jackson and Perkins in the same deal, that would mean taking back $8.4 million or less in commitments while also capitalizing on Jackson's value.
That deal will be tough to find, if it's out there at all. The point guard position is incredibly deep, so very few teams need one. The ones that don't aren't going to offload significant assets in order to get him; not when they can just make an unimpeded play for him in restricted free agency. That Jackson can be mentioned in the same breath as Waiters doesn't help.
"Both players also have selfish tendencies," wrote Bleacher Report's Dave Leonardis. "Jackson was famously frozen out by teammates Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka during his season debut against the Brooklyn Nets on Nov. 3. ... Meanwhile, Waiters got a similar treatment from James during a Dec. 26 clash with the Orlando Magic."
Limited starting experience also foils what little leverage the Thunder have. Jackson has never been an everyday starter and has therefore yet to prove he can pilot a top-flight offense.
In the 13 games he did start during Westbrook's and Durant's absences, the Thunder ranked 29th in offensive efficiency. Insufficient surrounding talent and an injury-ravaged rotation are both symptoms of that standing, but circumstantial caveats aren't trade assets.
Nor are Jackson's obvious on-floor faults.
More than 80 percent of Jackson's made baskets have gone unassisted this season, so he's not accustomed to playing off the ball. He also lacks the offensive range of a dangerous perimeter threat; he's shooting 27.3 percent from deep this season—28.8 percent for his career—and just 34.6 percent outside eight feet overall.
Spot-up shooting hasn't been his forte, either. He's banging in 23.4 percent of his catch-and-shoot opportunities for 2014-15, including a 21.1 percent clip from deep.
Though the Thunder have seen him successfully coexist beside another ball-dominant guard in Westbrook—they're pumping in 110.3 points per 100 possessions with both on the floor, the equivalent of the league's third-best offense—Jackson isn't someone suitors can readily integrate into a backcourt or starting lineup that includes another rock-wielding scorer.
All of this curbs both the potential return and market for Jackson. He projects as a buy-low prospect given what's out there.
The Knicks' reported interest remains puzzling, since Jackson's off-ball limits and penetration-packed style make him a putrid fit for the triangle. The Houston Rockets could use a floor general, but Jackson's game conflicts with that of James Harden's. That, along with his free-agent status, makes it unlikely they'll dangle New Orleans' protected first-rounder in negotiations.
Other teams such as the Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat do need an upgrade at point guard. But the Pacers are Thunder-like stingy, the Heat have next to no trade assets and the Lakers only have Houston's 2015 first-rounder to sling.
Interest in Jackson may inevitably be high. The return (most likely) will not.
To Trade or Not to Trade?
That is, in fact, the question. And with Waiters in tow and Jackson speeding toward a lucrative payday the Thunder aren't known for stomaching, the answer feels obvious.
Move him now, rather than lose him for nothing later.
If only it was that simple. Salaries, suitors and shortcomings make this a complex process and fickle situation—one that won't necessarily end anytime soon.
"I was traded,” Jackson said, referring to the social media windfall that punctuated the Waiters deal, per NewsOK.com's Anthony Slater. “I was thinking I was going to go home and pack and that was about it.”
Jackson may find himself packing in due time, via trade or restricted free agency. For now, he's a productive talent with a specific, widely owned skill set, playing for a team that will have to sell low on his services—if they choose to sell them at all.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited and are accurate as of games played Jan. 7, 2015. Salary information via HoopsHype.
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
