Is Nerlens Noel's NBA Future as a Power Forward or Center?
Expectations can be the bane of an NBA player's existence.
Take those bestowed upon Philadelphia 76ers center Nerlens Noel, for example. Acquired as the centerpiece of a 2013 draft day trade that signaled a 180-degree shift in the organization's philosophy, Noel was instantly viewed as a future building block.
But nearly three months into his rookie season, Noel has experienced significant growing pains at both frontcourt spots. In turn, whispers of positional ambiguity have become amplified with each passing game.
Offensively, his arsenal is far too limited to regularly play power forward. And on the other end, he's hardly muscular enough to bang with centers.
Now, that's not to say Noel's jump shot can't round into form or he can't add muscle. However, fellow lottery draftee Joel Embiid is slated for a 2015-16 debut. And his versatility as an offensive weapon is tailor-made for the 4 while Noel's sits on the polar opposite end of the spectrum.
"I think right now it's a five," Brown said of Noel's position at this early stage in his career, according to NBA.com's Scott Howard-Cooper. "He's gone from being a four man playing alongside Henry Sims to a five man, which is going to be a challenge for us when Joel gets healthy next year."
In the most basic sense, this is a conundrum of the double-edged sword variety for Brown and the Sixers.
Coming into his rookie season, it was widely assumed Noel would wreak havoc as a rim protector. And to date, he's held up his end of the bargain, swatting 1.4 shots per game. That mark ranks No. 2 overall among rookies, one spot behind teammate K.J. McDaniels, per ESPN.com.
Noel has also limited opponents to 54.3 percent shooting inside of six feet, according to NBA.com. On average, players shoot 60.5 percent within that range. Furthermore, Noel ranks seventh among all players in opponents' field-goal percentage (47.6) at the rim (minimum eight attempts against per game), according to NBA.com. Only Serge Ibaka, Roy Hibbert, Dwight Howard, DeMarcus Cousins, Tim Duncan and Pau Gasol have been stingier.
Here's the thing, though: Noel is getting absolutely torched by players like Howard and Cousins, who have close to 40 and 50 pounds on the rookie. Per Howard-Cooper, Noel now weighs a self-proclaimed 217 pounds, five pounds more than he did last summer.
While it would ordinarily be difficult to quantify a differential in weight outside of a run-of-the-mill physical, the fine folks at 82games.com have compiled some invaluable information worth considering.
Here's a comparative breakdown of how Noel has fared defensively vs. power forwards and centers, per 82games:
| Power Forward | .481 | 1.4 | 17.3 | 12.9 |
| Center | .536 | 2.6 | 20.7 | 23.1 |
Against players in his own weight class, Noel is an awfully tough matchup. Players score fewer points, shoot lower percentages and are generally bothered by his length. The exception in productive uptick comes in the shot-blocking department.
That's because when he's asked to float out and guard 4s who linger away from the rim, Noel's greatest strength is marginalized. That's a concern Brown has publicly acknowledged, per Howard-Cooper:
"Look at what a lot of teams do with their four men. They're away from the basket. Most of the fours nowadays can almost shoot threes. If that's your world, naturally you're pulled away from the basket. That was Nerlens' problem when we played him at four. He's so used to just running to the rim, he'd lose Dirk (Nowitzki), he'd lose perimeter people. It wasn't natural for him. Maybe he can guard a five player (better). I don't know. I think it's all a work in progress. But he really is a presence at the rim.
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Where things get really tricky is on the other end of the floor.
Noel has openly discussed his desire to model his game after Kevin Garnett, according to CSNPhilly.com's Dei Lynam.
The problem is that Noel's jump shot—one of Garnett's distinguishing features—is raw beyond belief. Following Monday's 95-92 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers Noel's knocked down 26.9 percent of his mid-range attempts, per NBA.com.
And while he's seemingly tested out every move in the book, Noel has yet to discover one that's been particularly effective in a large sample, according to NBA.com:
| Jump Shot | 82 | 15.9% |
| Layup | 34 | 29.4% |
| Hook Shot | 22 | 13.6% |
| Running Hook Shot | 8 | 62.5% |
One small area in which Noel's found success has been off the dribble. Since he's far quicker than conventional 5s and has a surprisingly capable handle when making straight line drives to the cup, Noel can get a step on defenders and then use his big bounce to rise and drop in floaters or flick hook shots over opponents.
"More and more, I'm developing the floater," Noel said, according to Lynam. "I think that shot complements my quickness and my ability to get to the basket and use my soft touch."
Unfortunately, with little back-to-the-basket confidence and few pick-and-roll finishes available via lobs, Noel has struggled to rack up easy attempts in the restricted area, according to CSNPhilly.com's Andrew Unterberger:
"He is shooting 58% at the rim, according to Basketball-Reference, which is decent enough, but he's only getting about three and a half shots a game there and making two. By contrast, the Mavericks' Tyson Chandler—another athletic big man of limited shooting range—gets about five looks a game at the basket and converts almost four of 'em.
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All of this seemingly damning evidence leaves us with one question: How can the Sixers best utilize Noel moving forward?
While there's no easy solution Philadelphia can deploy this season, a theoretical silver lining exists down the line.
During his tenure as the team's general manager, Sam Hinkie has embraced a best-player-available approach in the draft, evidenced by his aggressive acquisitions of injured bigs in back-to-back years.
But with coveted 2015 prospects like Jahlil Okafor and Karl-Anthony Towns atop draft boards far and wide, can the Sixers really afford to pass over perimeter scoring in pursuit of further asset accumulation?
While it may seem counterintuitive, Hinkie would be wise to stay the course.
If the Sixers are fortunate enough to scoop up Okafor or Towns (should they declare), Brown would have the luxury of sliding Noel into a less strenuous bench role that allows him to function as an energetic contributor who helps steady the team's second unit with doses of blocks that free up transition opportunities.
In essence, think of a more wiry, disruptive version of Brandan Wright.
Noel may—and should—have grand aspirations as far as ultimate development is concerned.
But in order to make timely inroads during that arduous trek, it would behoove him to pursue excellence in more concentrated areas as a center who thrives above the rim on both ends of the floor.
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