The 1 Move to Cement Every 2015 NBA Title Contender's Status
For true NBA championship contenders, the margin for error is always thin.
But with the 2014-15 season's traffic jam at the top of the standings, it's uncharacteristically slim even by its own standards.
One move can make the difference between parading in June or wondering where it all went wrong. That's why the league's wealthy class must find ways of getting richer. As strong as some of their resumes look, all of them have avenues to improvement worth exploring.
Considering the potential prize at stake, these clubs have to see what the trade market or current free-agent crop might bear over the coming months. Luckily for them, we have taken on that part of the process for them and identified a single move to address each team's most glaring need.
It's still early enough in this campaign that a liberal application of the label "contender" is appropriate. Some of these teams have better championship chances than others, but all have a relatively conceivable best-case scenario that involves hoisting that precious piece of hardware.
Atlanta Hawks: Bolstering the Backcourt
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The Move: Atlanta Hawks trade Kent Bazemore and 2017 second-round pick (from Brooklyn Nets) to New York Knicks for Iman Shumpert.
The Hawks need to strengthen their perimeter defense, and they know it. That's why they tossed multiyear contracts at Kent Bazemore and Thabo Sefolosha over the offseason.
But the 30-year-old Sefolosha has been unable to shake his offensive demise. After hitting a career-low 41.5 percent of his field-goal attempts last season, he has set a new personal worst at 39.3. Making matters worse, he has also connected on a career-low 24.4 percent of his threes. The Hawks are only giving him 18.7 minutes per game, and some nights that feels like a bit much.
Bazemore has been equally ineffective over his 10.0 minutes a night. His player efficiency rating sits at an abysmal 7.7, due in large part to his shooting struggles from the field (37.1 percent).
While both were brought in for their defense, their offense has been too erratic to give them more than a minimal role.
Free-agent-to-be Iman Shumpert could give Atlanta the two-way production it needs behind starter Kyle Korver. And the price for the Knicks shooting guard should be reasonable, given his past involvement in trade discussions, current injury problem (dislocated shoulder) and future uncertainty.
Shumpert can work well on or off the ball, and he's a good-enough shooter (career 34.3 three-point percentage) to work in Mike Budenholzer's equal-opportunity offense. But it's Shumpert's defensive potential—both a reflection of his physical tools and mental makeup—that could help fill one of the Hawks' lone voids.
Bazemore could help New York avoid a complete defensive collapse on the perimeter, while the Knicks also add a potentially valuable second-round choice coming from the aging Nets.
Chicago Bulls: Strengthening the Wing
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The Move: Chicago Bulls trade Tony Snell and 2016 second-round pick to Orlando Magic for Maurice Harkless.
Between Derrick Rose's return and the superstar rise of Jimmy Butler, the Bulls have one of the league's best backcourts. Add veteran sharpshooter Mike Dunleavy on the outside, and Chicago's starting unit is strong across the perimeter.
But the bench is a bit of a different story.
Newcomer Aaron Brooks has taken over the point guard position nicely, but neither Kirk Hinrich (37.8 field-goal percentage) nor E'Twaun Moore (33.3) have grabbed hold of the shooting guard spot. Tony Snell has yet to find consistent playing time (8.4 minutes), while rookie Doug McDermott struggled with his shot (23.1 three-point percentage) before knee surgery forced him off the floor.
A low-risk gamble on former lottery pick Maurice Harkless is one worth taking, particularly with his potential to relieve Butler of some of his 40.0 minutes a night.
The 21-year-old Harkless has been squeezed out of Orlando's crowded perimeter and seen a career-low 15.7 minutes per game. But just last season, he tallied 7.4 points (on 46.4 percent shooting from the field and 38.3 percent from deep), 3.3 rebounds and 1.2 steals in 24.4 minutes per game. With the type of seasoning he isn't getting Orlando, the elite athlete could emerge as a key rotation piece.
And really, that's all the Bulls are looking for given the collective strength of their starters. If coach Tom Thibodeau can sharpen the 6'8" Harkless' defensive skills, the Bulls could pack a lethal defensive punch on the wings with him and Butler.
This isn't a great return for the Magic, but they can blame themselves for not showcasing Harkless properly. Orlando is already owed a 2016 second-rounder from Chicago (either its own or the Portland Trail Blazers'), so adding another could allow the Magic to package them together to climb the draft board.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Finding a Rim Protector
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The Move: Cleveland Cavaliers sign free-agent center Emeka Okafor.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have all of 18 victories to show for their first 32 games.
Clearly, things need to improve in Cleveland. This offense hasn't been good enough to make up for a defense that allows a troubling 63.1 percent conversion rate within five feet and lost its top interior defender in Anderson Varejao for the year to a torn Achilles.
The Cavs will likely need to experiment in their attempts to find a solution. Coach David Blatt has already tried doing that, reshuffling the rotation to the point he gave 35-year-old Brendan Haywood a desperation start to see if he has anything left. (He doesn't, or at least not as much as Cleveland needs.)
Those creative solutions should eventually lead the Cavs to former No. 2 pick Emeka Okafor, who lost the entire 2013-14 to a serious neck injury and has yet to return. Okafor could be looking for a new home near midseason, though, and ESPN.com's Marc Stein reported Cleveland is one of many teams tracking the shot-blocker's progress.
The Cavs just picked up a disabled player exception for Varejao, which can be used to either sign or trade for a player. As intriguing as the trade option sounds, Stein noted the Cavs might not like what they find:
"It should be noted, though, that Cleveland has already been scouring the trade market with a similar trade exception valued at $5.3 million. ...
The Cavs have been pursuing a number of centers dating back to the summer -- including Denver's Timofey Mozgov, Memphis' Kosta Koufos and the Los Angeles Lakers' Robert Sacre -- but have yet to find a palatable deal.
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If the Cavs needed to sweeten a trade, they would almost certainly have to include their top-scoring reserve Dion Waiters. Signing Okafor would allow them to keep Waiters around, while adding elements of paint protection (1.9 career blocks per 36 minutes) and interior scoring (career 12.3 points per game) this roster lacks.
Dallas Mavericks: Finding the Next Mr. Wright
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The Move: Dallas Mavericks sign free-agent center Jermaine O'Neal.
Overshadowed by the hoopla surrounding the Dallas Mavericks' acquisition of four-time All-Star Rajon Rondo was the loss of invaluable reserve big Brandan Wright.
The lanky 27-year-old had previously ensured Dallas maintained a presence around the rim when Tyson Chandler got a breather. Wright was a steady producer on both sides of the ball, either finishing shots around the rim or changing them at the opposite side.
Granted, Wright isn't the same caliber of player as Rondo, plus Dallas desperately needed an upgrade at point guard. Still, Wright's absence makes Dallas uncomfortably thin underneath, as Tim Bontemps of the New York Post explained:
"With Wright removed from the equation, the Mavericks have only Charlie Villanueva and Greg Smith to play at center behind Chandler, who has missed 41 games over the past two years. If he picks up an injury now, Dallas – which already has a lot of shaky defenders – could quickly turn into one of the leakiest defensive teams in the league.
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The Mavs could look to go the trade route to replace Wright, but the Rondo deal stripped them of a lot of their assets. They may not be able to weather more subtractions.
That's what makes veteran free agent Jermaine O'Neal such an intriguing option. The 36-year-old was solid in a reserve role for the Golden State Warriors last season, using his 20.1 minutes per game to provide 7.9 points, 5.5 rebounds and 0.9 blocks.
O'Neal lives in the Dallas suburb of Southlake and previously played for Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle when both were with the Indiana Pacers. O'Neal is said to be "highly intrigued" by the thought of joining the Mavericks, sources told Stein, but first he needs to decide whether he wants to return for what would be his 19th NBA season.
Golden State Warriors: Adding Another Shooter
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The Move: Golden State Warriors trade Ognjen Kuzmic to the Los Angeles Lakers for Wayne Ellington.
The Golden State Warriors are one of the league's best three-point shooting teams. They rank fifth in made threes with 9.7 per game and are tied for seventh with a 37.2 three-point percentage.
So, the idea of adding another shooter to the fold might initially come across as compiling an embarrassment of riches. But Golden State's collection of snipers is thinner than many might realize.
The Warriors have made 290 triples on the season, 244 of which were cashed in by starters Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green. Golden State only has one reserve with more than 10 made threes (Andre Iguodala, 27) and one second-teamer shooting above 35.0 percent from deep (Justin Holiday, 35.7).
The Dubs need more breathing room around the basket for David Lee's post scoring and the slashing games of Iguodala and Shaun Livingston. Wayne Ellington is more than capable of creating that.
Ellington is converting more than 41 percent of his long-range looks for the second consecutive season. His skill set doesn't extend far beyond shooting—though he does battle defensively—but the Warriors need more floor spacing to keep passing lanes open when the Splash Brothers take a seat.
Cutting ties with Ognjen Kuzmic would be a tougher pill to swallow than his forgettable per-game marks of 1.2 points and 1.2 rebounds in 5.1 minutes would suggest. The Warriors aren't particularly young, so they might hesitate to move a 7'1" 24-year-old. But Kuzmic doesn't help them win now, and Ellington could.
The Los Angeles Lakers need to get bigger and stronger on the interior and younger overall. This transaction would allow them to do that, plus it might free up more developmental minutes for rookie combo guard Jordan Clarkson.
Houston Rockets: Superman Insurance
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The Move: Houston Rockets trade Donatas Motiejunas to Orlando Magic for Dewayne Dedmon and two 2015 second-round picks.
The Houston Rockets aren't entertaining championship thoughts without James Harden's MVP-caliber offensive production. But they aren't dreaming about the title if they aren't playing such a suffocating brand of defense, either.
The challenge for Houston is maintaining that tenacity when three-time Defensive Player of the Year Dwight Howard gets called to the sideline. The Rockets have allowed just 93.8 points per 100 possessions when Howard plays and 100.9 when he sits.
In other words, this was an issue before Houston waived Howard's primary backup Tarik Black to free up a roster spot for Josh Smith. It's even a greater concern now that coach Kevin McHale has limited options behind his All-Star center.
Houston's power forward spot, meanwhile, is going to be overcrowded once Terrence Jones solves the nerve issue in his leg. And Donatas Motiejunas, who the Rockets shopped last year according to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, has already seen his playing time slashed by Smith's arrival.
Dewayne Dedmon has quietly impressed with the Orlando Magic, shown by his per-36-minute averages of 10.1 points, 13.1 rebounds and 2.3 blocks. He has also held opponents to 47.3 percent shooting at the rim, which is a lower rate than what Tyson Chandler (50.3), Marc Gasol (50.9) and Joakim Noah (52.7) have allowed.
Rockets general manager Daryl Morey will figure out something valuable to do with those second-round selections, while the Magic pick up a promising frontcourt piece who can score from inside and out.
Los Angeles Clippers: Bringing in a Reserve Floor General
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The Move: Los Angeles Clippers trade Reggie Bullock and Ekpe Udoh to the Denver Nuggets for Nate Robinson.
There are plenty of reasons behind the Los Angeles Clippers' sluggish start—an overly leaky defense being chief among them—but the lack of consistent point guard play behind Chris Paul is one of the bigger ones that rarely gets mentioned.
Newcomer Jordan Farmar, who snagged a two-year, $4.2 million contract over the summer, has struggled mightily to make the transition. His 9.1 PER, 37.7 field-goal percentage and 0.33 win shares per 48 minutes are all career lows.
Clippers coach Doc Rivers shouldered some of the blame for Farmar's struggles but added that Paul's understudy needs to elevate himself.
"If a guy's not playing great for you, there's always something a coach can do, and I'm still looking for those things," Rivers said, per Ben Bolch of the Los Angeles Times. "And Jordan has to do it himself too. When he comes in, the ball pressure has to pick up from him. His shot-making, he can do that."
The Clippers, who are sitting 4.5 games back of the Pacific Division-leading Warriors, may not be able to wait on Farmar to figure things out.
So Rivers could turn to one of his old reserves in Nate Robinson, who played some of his best basketball while both were with the Boston Celtics. Between Robinson and Jamal Crawford, the Clippers would have two reserves capable of putting constant pressure on opposing defenses. Both are shoot-first guards, but their combined playmaking skills should keep the offense flowing.
Robinson's exit in Denver would create more opportunities for rookie Erick Green. Reggie Bullock's upside and Ekpe Udoh's interior defense would give the Nuggets more flexibility if they opt to dramatically overhaul their roster.
Memphis Grizzlies: More Perimeter Scoring
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The Move: Memphis Grizzlies trade Tayshaun Prince and 2016 second-round pick to Boston Celtics for Marcus Thornton.
Memphis Grizzlies coach David Joerger has squeezed every ounce of offense he possibly can out of his starting five. As a result, the Grizzlies, a perennial thorn for Western Conference contenders, are a title contender themselves.
But this attack is a bit overly dependent on the quartet of Mike Conley, Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph and Courtney Lee. Each of the four averages more than 11 points per game, and Lee is the only one averaging fewer than 16. The next-highest scorer on this team is lockdown defender Tony Allen at 7.9.
Neither Vince Carter (32.4 three-point percentage) nor Quincy Pondexter (24.6) have duplicated their past perimeter success. With reserve forward Jon Leuer also struggling from outside (28.6), the Grizzlies have had a hard time maintaining driving lanes for Beno Udrih and low-post real estate for Kosta Koufos.
Memphis needs more shooting, and the Bayou Bomber Marcus Thornton can scratch that itch.
Thornton, a career 36.3 percent three-point shooter, has nailed 42.3 percent of his perimeter shots this season. While he's not the most consistent scorer, his hot nights are often sights to behold. He cleared the 20-point mark nine different times last season despite playing only 24.2 minutes per game. He's capable of creating his own offense off the bounce too, which should help drag defensive attention away from Memphis' shooters.
The Boston Celtics would get back the second-round pick they currently owe the Grizzlies, and that's their main interest in making the move. Taking a piece off Boston's perimeter should also buy more time for younger wings such as Evan Turner, Jae Crowder and rookie James Young.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Getting Longer and More Athletic
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The Move: Oklahoma City Thunder trade Jeremy Lamb, Kendrick Perkins and their 2015 first-round pick to the Denver Nuggets for Wilson Chandler and J.J. Hickson.
If the NBA adopted blacktop basketball rules, the Oklahoma City Thunder may never get forced off the court. They don't tactically destroy their opponents, rather they unleash a dominant combination of supreme individual talent, menacing length and world-class athleticism.
Their success rests largely on the elite-level skills of reigning MVP Kevin Durant, three-time All-Star Russell Westbrook and soaring two-way big man Serge Ibaka. In the 182 minutes that trio has shared the floor, Oklahoma City has obliterated its opponents by an absurd 21.3 points per 100 possessions.
The Thunder don't have the most consistent group behind those three—super-sub Reggie Jackson is shooting only 42.2 percent from the field—but this roster is littered with similarly freakish physical specimens. That gives the group the opportunity to physically overwhelm its opponents, with Durant and Westbrook around to push this team over the top when length and athleticism aren't quite enough.
This trade could both bolster OKC's biggest strengths and cut back its reliance on the Big Three.
Wilson Chandler has the speed to play on the perimeter and the size (6'8", 220 pounds) to defend underneath. He's a do-it-all contributor on both ends of the floor with the ability to guard four different positions and the skill to fill whatever offensive area his team needs. League sources previously told Sports Illustrated's Chris Mannix that the Thunder have inquired about Chandler's availability.
J.J. Hickson's salary is needed to make this trade work, but his scoring skills would add another element to OKC's offense. The Denver Nuggets would be largely interested in adding a first-round selection, but they might have the minutes available to help Jeremy Lamb tap into his potential. Kendrick Perkins' contract is set to expire at season's end, and the Nuggets might need that flexibility if they choose to rebuild.
Portland Trail Blazers: Building Their Bench
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The Move: Portland Trail Blazers trade Thomas Robinson, Dorell Wright, Will Barton and 2015 first-round pick to Denver Nuggets for Arron Afflalo, Darrell Arthur and Alonzo Gee.
Credit the Portland Trail Blazers for trying to address their biggest need over the offseason by adding veterans Steve Blake and Chris Kaman to their beleaguered bench.
But either the talent still isn't there on Portland's second team, or head coach Terry Stotts just doesn't believe that it is. The Blazers rank 25th in bench points (27.0 per game) and 25th in bench minutes (16.2), after sitting last in both categories last season, per HoopsStats.com.
It speaks to the strength of these starters that despite getting such a little lift from the reserves, the Blazers still have the NBA's fourth-best net rating at plus-7.4 points per 100 possessions. The inside-out tandem of LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard is lethal, Wesley Matthews is breaking out in a big way, Robin Lopez masterfully mans the middle, and Nicolas Batum is still the glue holding everything together.
But the starters clearly need more help. This trade won't net Stotts three guys he can play right away at the cost of three part-time rotation players and a draft pick that can't help the Blazers this season.
Afflalo is the main attraction, as the 29-year-old could provide instant relief on both ends. He can defend either position on the wing, create his own shot and consistently bury the deep ball (career 38.7 three-point percentage). His versatility makes him an intriguing fit with any of Portland's reserves and in staggered lineups with some starters. He also provides some insurance in case Matthews bolts in free agency.
Gee is a three-and-D wing who could be a platoon option with Portland's volume shooters. Arthur has struggled with his offense, but he can give this team consistent defense and rebounding, a claim Portland's current reserve power forwards cannot make.
The Nuggets collect three expiring contracts, with Robinson perhaps being a future rotation piece. The low-end first-round selection makes this a no-brainer move for Denver.
San Antonio Spurs: Proving They Are the NBA's Smartest Team
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The Move: San Antonio Spurs sign free-agent guard Ray Allen.
The San Antonio Spurs don't really need free-agent sniper Ray Allen.
They already rank among the league leaders in made threes (8.2 per game, 10th) and three-point percentage (37.3, sixth). Four different players are averaging at least one triple a night, and all four are converting those shots at a better than 37 percent clip.
Marksman Patty Mills only recently returned after his debut was delayed by shoulder surgery. Last season, he tossed in 135 threes off the bench while shooting 42.5 percent from beyond the arc.
The Spurs didn't need Allen this summer, yet they were one of several contenders chasing the league's all-time leader in three-point makes, according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein.
So, why would San Antonio want to sign a player it doesn't need? Two reasons.
First, coach Gregg Popovich is a master at fitting puzzle pieces together. He'll find a way to incorporate Allen's picturesque shooting stroke into San Antonio's offense and probably maximize its effectiveness.
Second, the only teams attempting to attract Allen are contenders. Not only would the Spurs be adding a player who could help, but they would also be preventing that assistance from going to one of their top contenders.
That's Spursian level of genius.
The question is whether Allen wants one last run at the title. ESPN's Brian Windhorst recently heard Allen is leaning toward retirement, but ESPN The Magazine's Chris Broussard heard in August that Allen was leaning toward a comeback.
Allen still might not know what he wants to do. If he decides he'd like to get back on the NBA hardwood, the Spurs could be one of the first calls he receives.
Toronto Raptors: Getting Even More Offensive
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The Move: Toronto Raptors trade Landry Fields to New York Knicks for J.R. Smith.
If any team can appreciate the volume-scoring gifts of J.R. Smith, it might be the Toronto Raptors.
Of Toronto's top-seven scorers, four are shooting below 43 percent from the field. Two of them aren't even clearing the 40 percent mark. Yet, the Raptors own the NBA's second-most efficient offense.
Toronto stays active from two of the most efficient spots on the floor: beyond the arc and at the free-throw line. The Raptors average the eighth-most three-point attempts and rank fourth with 25.9 shots at the foul line.
When Smith is playing at his best, he's a handful from both areas. He owns a career 37.0 three-point percentage and set a personal best with 3.9 free-throw attempts per game during his 2012-13 Sixth Man of the Year campaign.
In Smith, the Raptors would be hedging their quick-trigger bets. There might be the occasional atrocious shooting display, but an offense featuring Smith, Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Louis Williams, Jonas Valanciunas and Terrence Ross isn't going to hurt for production often.
Smith would be a risky acquisition, especially in light of his sagging statistics (10.2 points, 32.4 three-point percentage). And the New York Knicks haven't really guarded the fact they would consider moving him, as ESPN New York's Ian Begley reported.
But for only Landry Fields, a player who doesn't seem to be part of Toronto's present or future, the price may be low enough to make this worth the risk.
For the Knicks, this is all about increasing financial flexibility for this coming offseason. Fields' $8.5 million salary is coming off the books at season's end, while Smith holds a $6.4 million player option for 2015-16.
Washington Wizards: A Real Backup for Beal
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The Move: Washington Wizards trade Kevin Seraphin and 2016 second-round pick to Cleveland Cavaliers for Dion Waiters.
It's hard to ignore the incredible potential for the Washington Wizards formula.
Their defense is among the best in the business with top-10 rankings in points allowed (97.4 per game, tied for sixth), field-goal percentage against (44.0, tied for sixth) and efficiency (99.8 points per 100 possessions, fourth). Their offense isn't quite as consistent, but it has three possible closers in John Wall, Bradley Beal and Paul Pierce, plus the solid post pairing of Marcin Gortat and Nene.
The Wizards have a little of everything on the bench: veterans, prospects, shooters, defenders, energy guys—but no true shooting guard behind Beal. Rasual Butler and Martell Webster can man the position, but both are natural small forwards. Rookie Glen Rice Jr. has barely sniffed the floor this season (43 minutes over five games).
Clearly, the Wizards are surviving without having that vacancy filled, but they might have another level in front of them if they pull the trigger on this.
If the Cleveland Cavaliers can't solve their rim-protection issue in free agency, they might take a long look at Kevin Seraphin. The 6'9" 25-year-old owns a career average of 1.6 blocks per 36 minutes. If Cleveland reaches desperation stage, that number plus a low-level draft pick might be enough to induce a panic trade of the talented Dion Waiters.
Waiters has struggled under first-year coach David Blatt, but last season the sixth man notched 15.9 points and 3.0 assists in only 29.6 minutes a night. Waiters has the physical tools to become a plus defender, and his offensive arsenal includes both scoring and setup skills.
With Wall and Beal in the backcourt, the Wizards wouldn't need major minutes from Waiters. But if he played nice in a reserve role, Washington would have a devastating three-headed monster in the backcourt.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com. Salary information obtained via ShamSports.com.
