Why Miami Heat Should Go All-in on 2015 NBA Free-Agent Class
The NBA 2016 free-agent class is winning headlines. However, the class of 2015 might be the one that wins championships.
While Association luminaries Kevin Durant, Dwight Howard and Chris Paul—as well as an action-packed group of other proven difference-makers—could all be available the summer after next, this coming offseason might be the Miami Heat’s best chance to return their roster to its recent former glory.
At the very least it could, and should, be an acquisition starting point for the franchise.
One reason the less heralded class of 2015 should tempt Miami decision-makers is age. These are, largely, rising players. The 2016 bunch, with the exception of Durant, is headlined by players whose peak years will, at that point, probably be behind them.
The 2015 class features Deandre Jordan, who will be 27. Jimmy Butler will be 25 this summer. Kawhi Leonard will turn 24. Restricted free agent Reggie Jackson will be just 25.
Conversely, while Kevin Durant and Nicolas Batum will be just 27 in 2016, Joakim Noah will be 31, Al Horford will check in at 30, Mike Conley will be 29 by the time 2016-17 tips off, and Chris Paul and Dwight Howard, if they opt out of their deals, will be 31 and 30.
In a league where players begin a steep decline as they approach 30 and fall off precipitously after 32, the age of the later star-studded class is problematic. It goes without saying at this point, but it bears repeating: In professional sports, you pay for future, not past, production.
Additionally, a class that looks tremendous now might appear very different after the 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons have run their course. Injuries—occasionally those of the career-altering variety—can and do happen. Players, owing to aging and other factors, cease to be effective. Stocks drop. Miami could wait two years to pounce on an opportunity that proves to be illusory. A mirage.
There’s also the matter of the logistical difficulty of swinging what Miami—by all indications—hopes to pull off in the summer of 2016.
Players want to be a part of a winning program. When the money is equal—and under the current collective bargaining agreement (CBA), it generally is pretty close—the likelihood that a new location can give a star the opportunity to compete for and win titles is what tips the scales.
At present, Miami can’t present such an opportunity. It’s a thoroughly average team without any clear top-line production. Luol Deng leads the team with 2.5 win shares, a total that, per Basketball-Reference.com, is good for just 52nd in the NBA. At 14-18 through 32 games, the franchise is likely more than just one more difference-maker away from contending. It takes two, baby.
So, in order to build a new Big Three in 2016, Pat Riley and company will probably need to turn the same trick that allowed them to build the first iteration: Convince multiple big names to, simultaneously, commit to South Beach. That’s difficult.
Closing one big sale is hard. Two is even harder. Closing three is downright impossible. What happened in 2010 was the exception, not the rule. Miami shouldn’t count on hitting another home run.
But if it starts shopping this offseason, it won’t have to. If Miami can poach one of the names this summer and then oversee a modicum of growth in 2015-16, it has a pretty compelling pitch to any free agent: Come join Chris Bosh, Star No. 2 and chase titles in one of the most beautiful cities in the U.S. of A.
This isn’t quixotic. Kawhi Leonard, still two birthdays away from 25, is the reigning MVP of the NBA Finals and a budding star. Scratch that: He’s a star.
Leonard has paced the San Antonio Spurs in wins produced in two of the last three full seasons, according to BoxScore Geeks, and, via Basketball-Reference.com, he led the 2013-14 NBA champs in win shares. And before a torn ligament in his hand sidelined him indefinitely, he was on track for maybe his best season ever. Leonard was averaging 17 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 2.2 steals, all career highs.
Bosh and Leonard would form an intriguing core that Miami—still flush with cash in 2016 even if it pays the full max available to the small forward—could build around.
The Chicago Bulls Jimmy Butler offers a similar opportunity. Butler has exploded in his fourth NBA season. The 6’7” shooting guard is averaging a gaudy 22.2-point, 6.2-rebound, 3.2-assist line, is logging a league-leading 40.1 minutes a night and, per Basketball-Reference.com. is third in the sport with 5.9 win shares. And he’s 25.
Butler, however, does seem a long shot to leave the Windy City. He told the Chicago Sun Times' Joe Cowley that, although he turned down a four-year, $40 million extension this offseason, he has zero intention of skipping town.
“People say I’m chasing money when that’s not it—yeah, get your mic closer—that’s not it, because I’m going to be in Chicago.”
But if he could be persuaded to leave—and the Heat have a strong recent track record of luring stars from the Midwest—he would be a tremendous fit alongside Bosh.
There are also some impressive big men who will be available. DeAndre Jordan is a polarizing player and might not be the caliber of name that could sway a star, but he’s a tremendously underrated performer.
Per Boxscore Geeks, the Los Angeles Clippers center is fourth in the NBA in wins produced this season after finishing third in 2013-14. And with his top-flight rebounding, Jordan would also ameliorate what’s been the major weakness of the Heat for the past several seasons.
He’s not a big name, but he’s a big-time producer. And if he can push Miami back to 45-50-win territory in 2015-16, he could help convince a star to push it over the top.
Though age might be an issue for the Heat, LaMarcus Aldridge, Marc Gasol and even Rajon Rondo are also very attractive pieces who could be had this summer.
There’s a hurdle, though, and a fairly imposing one, to Miami starting to reload a year ahead of schedule: money.
While the Heat have their books positioned so they can spend with abandon in 2016, next summer, as it stands now, the purse strings will have to be held pretty tight. According to HoopsHype.com, Miami is on the hook for $69.5 million in salary next season but only $29.5 the following year.
But that doesn't mean a summer splurge is impossible. Luol Deng and Dwyane Wade have player options for 2015-16 worth approximately $10 million and $16 million, respectively. While Wade seems likely to stick around, Deng is performing at a very high level after a down 2013-14 and, at 29, he could opt out of the final year of his Heat pact to cash in one last time with a multiyear deal.
Meanwhile, Chris Andersen and Danny Granger, who are under contract for a total of $7 million next season, could plausibly retire. Josh McRoberts still has three years and approximately $17 million left on his deal after this season, but if he rights himself during the back end of this season, he could be moved. This would save Miami another $5.5 million in 2015-16.
All of which is to say: Hey, it could happen. A motivated Miami front office could clear enough space to offer a max contract this offseason and then enter the summer of 2016 with a core that’s much closer to title-ready and, consequently, more attractive to whatever stars are ultimately available that summer.
2016 might still be the period that pushes the Heat back over the top, but with shrewd cap management this year and canny salesmanship this summer, Pat Riley could lay the groundwork that makes it all possible.
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