Predicting Philadelphia Eagles' Biggest Roster Moves This Offseason
The Philadelphia Eagles' devastating 27-24 loss to the Washington Redskins put things into perspective for the team and its fans; this roster just isn't good enough to consider itself a playoff team, and the Dallas Cowboys' thrashing of the Indianapolis Colts sealed Philly's fate.
Chip Kelly isn't going anywhere, but there are some important roster moves for this organization to make. Which key free agents should be re-signed and which top players need long-term contract extensions? And who should the Eagles target in the 2015 NFL draft?
Save for the 2011 "Dream Team" spending splurge, general manager Howie Roseman has proven to be a master of the salary cap. He’s negotiated team-friendly contracts on a consistent basis and the 2015 Eagles project to be at least $5-10 million under the expected salary cap, per Overthecap.com.
There’s room for the Eagles to re-sign some veterans and also rid themselves of expensive contracts. The draft will be crucial as well. Watch for the Eagles to remain cautiously aggressive. It’s unlikely the team signs a Darrelle Revis or Devin McCourty, but Roseman and Kelly could make a splash.
1. Jeremy Maclin Gets Re-Signed to Five-Year Deal
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Jeremy Maclin responded in a huge way this season following the offseason release of three-time Pro Bowler DeSean Jackson, and a case could be made for him as the club's 2014 MVP.
Just one year removed from a torn ACL that sidelined him for all of '13, Maclin is on pace to beat Jackson's career-best numbers. With one game still to play, Maclin is at 82 receptions for 1,269 yards and 10 touchdowns. He’s seventh among wide receivers in yards and tied for seventh in touchdowns.
Maclin did all this with two quarterbacks and very little help opposite him (Riley Cooper ranks 66th among receivers with 536 yards). The Philadelphia Eagles inexplicably released Jackson this past offseason, and they can’t possibly let another Pro Bowl receiver go.
That will give Maclin leverage in contract negotiations, but then again, it took a contract year and the Chip Kelly offense to bring out the best numbers in Maclin. A deal similar to what the Eagles gave Jackson before 2012 is reasonable—five years, $50-55 million.
2. Fletcher Cox and Mychal Kendricks Sign Contract Extensions
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The Philadelphia Eagles' 2012 draft class is looking like one of the better ones of any team in recent years, highlighted by their top two picks.
First-round pick Fletcher Cox took that next step, elevating his performance to the point that he's now in the conversation among the most dominant defensive linemen in the NFL. Cox has excelled as a 4-3 defensive tackle and 3-4 defensive end; this year, he was a one-man wrecking crew, particularly down the stretch.
Cox rates as Pro Football Focus' third-best overall 3-4 end, trailing just J.J. Watt and Sheldon Richardson. Cox's rookie contract doesn't expire until after 2015, but he's been very deserving of a long-term extension a while. Look for Cox to earn in the neighborhood of what the Cardinals' Calais Campbell got; a five-year, $55 million deal.
Likewise, second-round inside linebacker Mychal Kendricks fashioned by far his finest season as well. Kendricks has improved noticeably in all three NFL seasons, and his most impressive achievement in 2014 was reducing his missed tackles; after whiffing on 21 percent of his tackle attempts in ’13 (per PFF), Kendricks lowered that number to 13 percent this season.
Kendricks has terrific sideline speed. He can cover tight ends, stop the run and even rush the passer. A contract similar to what his teammate DeMeco Ryans has is reasonable; that’s a six-year deal worth at least $46 million.
3. Brandon Graham Walks in Free Agency/Trent Cole's Contract Is Restructured
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The Philadelphia Eagles have an interesting dilemma to make at the outside linebacker position. Connor Barwin will return on the one side, following a Pro Bowl-caliber campaign. Opposite him, the team will likely have to decide between veteran Trent Cole and impending free agent, Brandon Graham.
Cole is due to make $11.6 million, per Spotrac.com. Graham has been the No. 1 rated pass-rusher among 3-4 outside linebackers in terms of Pro Football Focus's pass-rushing productivity percentage statistic. That means Graham is due for a big payday, and it's extremely unlikely the Eagles can afford to bring both back.
Everson Griffen of the Minnesota Vikings got a five-year, $42.5 million deal last offseason, and Graham should command about that figure. He's underachieved in terms of his first-round draft status, but he's still performed as a situational pass-rusher, and there's evidence to suggest he can excel as a full-time player.
After all, Griffen was a part-time player in 2013 behind Jared Allen and Brian Robison; when Allen departed for Chicago, Griffen took over this year and racked up 12.0 sacks—so far—as a regular.
The problem is the Eagles can't yet count on 2014 first-round pick Marcus Smith, especially after what was essentially a redshirt rookie year. If they re-work Cole’s deal to bring him back for several more years at a lower cap hit, it’s a win-win for both sides. A three-year extension worth about $20-22 million would be substantial.
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4. DeMeco Ryans/Todd Herremans Get Released
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DeMeco Ryans was a good player in his three seasons in Philadelphia, and he was the defensive captain. The problem is that he ended 2014 on injured reserve. When he did play, he had no sacks, no forced fumbles and just one interception in eight games.
Ryans’ contract allows the Eagles to move on easily; he has a $6.9 million cap hit for 2015 with no dead money should the team release him, per OverTheCap. Considering how much the coaching staff liked Travis Long and Najee Goode in preseason, one of them may be the odds-on favorite to start next to Mychal Kendricks at inside linebacker.
Veteran guard Todd Herremans is the Eagles’ longest-tenured offensive player. He’s been a versatile lineman during his 10 years, starting at every position on the line but center. Herremans has now missed significant time in three of the past six years; most recently, he suffered an ankle injury in 2012 and then tore his biceps this year.
Herremans is due to make $5.2 million in 2015 and the team can save $2.8 million by releasing him, according to OverTheCap. Allen Barbre was extended for three years this past offseason, and Andrew Gardner filled in well down the stretch this season. There doesn’t seem to be reason to pay Herremans that much money, especially considering the Eagles have almost $30 million devoted to their five offensive line starters in 2015.
5. Sign Byron Maxwell in Free Agency
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It’s no secret that the Philadelphia Eagles need help at cornerback. Bradley Fletcher has been torched week in week out; with one game still to go, he’s already set a single-season Pro Football Focus record for receiving yards allowed (1,072), and he’s been beat for nine touchdowns. Fortunately, Fletcher is a free agent this offseason, which should make the farewell easy enough for the Eagles.
Darrelle Revis is likely to hit free agency again, considering he has a $25 million cap hit with the 2015 New England Patriots, per Spotrac. The problem with signing Revis is that the Eagles would need to break the bank. They tried that several years ago with Nnamdi Asomugha and it backfired miserably; it’s also not this organization’s style to pay too much for one free agent.
Chip Kelly and Howie Roseman like tall, long corners (similar to Fletcher), and Seattle’s Byron Maxwell fits that description. Maxwell is a fourth-year player hitting free agency, and it will be difficult to envision the Seahawks re-signing him considering they’re paying top money to Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas, and they will have to commit $20 million per year to Russell Wilson.
Maxwell has six interceptions the last two years, and he’s allowed just one touchdown in coverage, per PFF. Pairing him opposite Cary Williams would give the Eagles a respectable 1-2 cornerback tandem.
6. Bradley Fletcher and Nate Allen Won’t Get Re-Signed
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Not too many Philadelphia Eagles fans will kick up much of a fuss for these two defensive backs leaving; Bradley Fletcher is probably still getting beat for touchdowns somewhere and Nate Allen is just a mediocre safety who has spent five years with the team.
Fletcher will be lucky to get any kind of a deal in free agency; he was exposed all season and will have to settle for a nickel or dime role somewhere. There’s no reason for the Eagles to consider bringing him back.
Allen has had his moments, but he’s best suited as a third safety. The argument for bringing him back would be that he knows the defense; the argument for letting him leave would be what he’s done on the field. Allen has given up five touchdowns in pass coverage, and he rates 72nd among 86 safeties in passer rating allowed, per PFF.
7. Mark Sanchez Walks in Free Agency; Chip Kelly Picks His QB in the First Round
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Mark Sanchez isn’t the main culprit for the demise of the 2014 Philadelphia Eagles, but his propensity for turnovers won’t earn him a new contract with the team.
Nick Foles will be back as the Week 1 starter, barring something unexpected (like a Robert Griffin III trade). But Chip Kelly will need to pick his franchise quarterback and start developing him. Will that be Marcus Mariota? That’s highly unlikely, given that the Eagles will likely pick around the 20th spot and Mariota could go first overall.
It’s too early before the draft to project what exactly will happen; will the Eagles mortgage their future for Mariota, a la the Washington Redskins with RGIII? Will they pick Jameis Winston? Will they go with a developmental player like Brett Hundley? It’s year three of the Kelly regime, so the team has to get its guy. Expect it to happen.
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