Up-and-Down Chicago Bulls Still Have Clear Path to Top of Eastern Conference
The Chicago Bulls have yet to dominate the way many thought they would, but there is still plenty of time—and more than enough talent—for them to emerge as the Eastern Conference's best.
Weighing a combination of past production, present performances and future projections, it's easy to dub this team as an NBA elite. The Bulls are far from playing their best basketball, yet their 15-9 record leaves them only 3.5 games back of the top-seeded Toronto Raptors.
It doesn't take a real creative mind to imagine Chicago closing that gap and leaving all conference contenders behind over the next four months.
Of course, there are no guarantees the Bulls can make such a move. They are not one of the three teams from the East with a top-10 efficiency rating. Their good-not-great plus-3.6 mark checks in at No. 11, behind the Raptors (plus-7.8), the Washington Wizards (plus-5.6) and the Atlanta Hawks (plus-5.0).
Chicago might have one of the league's highest ceilings, but it takes more than a flipped switch to engineer a championship run.
Luckily, the Bulls have more than blind optimism driving their hope for much better days ahead.
Like most things Windy City, it starts with former MVP Derrick Rose.
The 26-year-old, who lost all but 10 games the past two seasons to a pair of serious knee injuries, has slowly started to move away from being a walking medical red flag. Ankle sprains and hamstring sprains shuffled him in and out of the lineup early on, but he has now made 11 consecutive appearances.
He's still carrying some two-plus years of rust on his shoulders, and his stat sheet shows it. Not counting his 10-game appearance in 2013-14, his 42.1 field-goal percentage would be the worst of his career. His 16.8 turnover percentage is another personal worst.
He doesn't produce or even play like his old self. He is spending less time within three feet of the basket than ever before, with only 21.9 percent of his field-goal attempts coming from that range. Conversely, the career 30.9 percent three-point shooter is launching an unconscionable 7.3 triples per 36 minutes.
As K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune (subscription required) observed, Rose cannot continue to force the issue from the perimeter:
"Derek Rose needs to shoot fewer 3-pointers.
It shouldn't matter if defenders are going under screens on Rose. It shouldn't matter if both coach Tom Thibodeau and Rose defend his attempts. It even shouldn't matter if Rose gets hot from that distance...
Rose taking so many 3-pointers is exactly where opposing defenses want him. Six times in his last eight games, Rose has attempted at least seven 3-pointers. He's shooting 25.5 percent at 13-for-51 on those.
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Given the time Rose has already lost to injury, it's understandable if he's a bit hesitant to attack with reckless abandon. And if he could bring his percentage up to where it sat last season (34.0), then suddenly that volume would become much easier to stomach.
Still, it's an issue that needs addressing at some point. Of course, that fact alone is a source of optimism for Chicago.
"It's less these days about injuries and knees than penetration and threes," noted Bulls.com's Sam Smith. "That's a good thing."
"The big thing is playing," coach Tom Thibodeau said, per NBA.com's Sekou Smith. "The more he plays the better he's going to be."
The basketball world has already seen evidence of that. Over his last eight games, Rose has set season highs in points (31), assists (10), rebounds (six) and field-goal percentage (58.3).
This is still the early stage of what could be a long process, but there are signs that things are starting to click. And Rose feels like it will only get better from here.
"You all are going to be surprised by the way that I am playing. Just give me a little minute," he told reporters recently. "I know where I am going to be. I know how good I am, and I'm very confident with my craft and how good I am. Period."
Rose doesn't need to return to his MVP level. This current roster offers far more help than that one had.
Jimmy Butler (20.9 points on 48.4 percent shooting) is among the early leaders for the Most Improved Player award. Pau Gasol's offensive consistency (18.7 points) and defensive commitment (11.9 rebounds, 1.9 blocks) have fit this system like a glove. Nikola Mirotic (14.4 points per 36 minutes) looks like what he is: a rookie by label only. Aaron Brooks (19.9 points per 36) is the latest scoring point guard to thrive under Thibodeau.
Give Rose that type of assistance, and it's scary to think what he can do with it. Even with the rust, he's already made the Bulls 6.9 points per 100 possessions better than their opponents during his 438 minutes. Only five teams have a better net efficiency rating than that.
Rose has been good, but there is ample opportunity for him to make major improvements. And he's far from the only player on this team to have that type of upward mobility.
The Bulls have 24 games under their belt. Only Brooks, Mirotic and sharpshooter Mike Dunleavy have appeared in every one.
Gasol's transition to Chicago was briefly stunted by a strained calf. Uber-valuable reserve Taj Gibson lost six games to a sprained ankle.
Those two have since returned, but two-time All-Star Joakim Noah (ankle, knee) and 2014 lottery pick Doug McDermott (knee) have both been sidelined of late.
With Gibson, Gasol and Mirotic, the Bulls have interior options to substitute for Noah. But there is no real way to replace the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, who also happens to be one of the league's elite passers.
Noah, Johnson reported, expects to return from a four-game absence for Thursday's clash with the New York Knicks. That should give Bulls fans their first glimpse in a while of this team's regular starting lineup, which Bleacher Report's Sean Highkin noted has performed at an elite level during limited time together:
McDermott is a different story, though. The rookie recently underwent arthroscopic knee surgery, which ESPNChicago.com's Nick Friedell reported would keep him out of action for "at least four to six weeks."
That being said, McDermott's loss should be far easier to cover. He was only seeing 11.6 minutes of action a night and had yet to find his shooting rhythm, posting a .423/.231/.500 slash line.
The healthier the Bulls get, the more dangerous they become.
"I think it's only the beginning," Noah said recently, per Smith. "... I still believe that we can get a lot better."
Chicago doesn't need to get a lot better. Modest improvements on both sides of the ball should be enough to push this club into the top tier.
The Bulls have the 11th-rated offense right now. A confident, comfortable Rose and a growing familiarity between this reworked group could help this team reach the level it needs to escape from the East.
Chicago sits ninth in efficiency on the opposite side. The Bulls have a lethal defensive trio with Butler, Thibodeau and a healthy Noah, so there is certainly room for that ranking to improve.
The start of this season hasn't gone according to plan. Rose didn't waltz back on the hardwood and dominate from opening night. The injury imp has attacked nearly every player inside the locker room. The Bulls have stumbled into a few bad-luck losses, notably overtime defeats at the hands of the Cleveland Cavaliers and Dallas Mavericks.
And still Chicago finds itself with a seat at the Eastern Conference's main table, a stone's throw from its most coveted seat. The Raptors, Wizards and Hawks won't willingly cede their positions to the Bulls. The Cavs have more than enough talent to shoot up the standings at some point.
But the Bulls' best might be a higher gear than any of those teams have. While these next four months should be a fight to the finish, Chicago has plenty of reasons to like its chances.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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