Is It Too Early for Chicago Bulls to Plan for a Derrick Rose-Less Future?
Chicago Bulls star point guard Derrick Rose has dealt with injuries the past three postseasons. While it's starting to get better, should the Bulls start planning for the worst?
What started off as an illustrious career—becoming the youngest MVP in NBA history—quickly took a sour turn. Rose was hit with consecutive season-ending injuries, putting a stop to Chicago's championship aspirations for three years.
Rose had this to say regarding concerns about his health earlier this October, per Jack McCarthy of USA Today:
"I'm going to have to answer this question for the rest of my career. I can sit here and say a million times that I'll be fine. But I think the only way to answer all the critics and everyone asking about me is to actually be on the court and actually be playing.
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It's been a rocky start to Rose's return. The 26-year-old point guard has been hit with a couple of nagging ankle and hamstring injuries, forcing him to miss eight contests so far, not including two games in which he started but couldn't finish.
When Rose has played, though, there have been mixed results.
He has scored 20 or more points in four games, shooting 50 percent on two of those nights. However, he's looked sluggish and very passive on several occasions. Rose was pulled from the Denver Nuggets matchup on Nov. 25 after halftime because "The way the game was going, the way we were going, I just felt at that point I wanted to go a different way," said head coach Tom Thibodeau.
Rose has strung together a few games and looks a little better every night. He has become extremely perimeter-oriented, though, as three-pointers make up 44 percent of his attempts this year. He's shown only small flashes of his former self.
Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times likened Rose's game to that of a stone skipping across water: "A few splash plays, a ripple and then a quiet sink to the bottom."
However planning for a future without Rose isn't contingent on his level of play. He's bound to get better with time; after all, he has two years of rust to shake off.
It may seem early to look toward a future without Rose. He's only 26 and barely entering his prime, but it seems that no matter what, he can't stay healthy. Even if it was just bad luck, the damage to Rose's lower body has been significant.
If he misses a fourth consecutive playoff run, can Chicago afford to keep waiting for him?
Postseason Purgatory
The Bulls have proven year in and year out that they can still compete without Rose.
They earned the No. 4 seed in the 2014 postseason, but without their star scorer and playmaker, they've never advanced past the second round, winning just one series against the Brooklyn Nets in 2013.
Chicago is boasting a more complete team this time around, though. Pau Gasol is playing at an All-Star level as is four-year swingman Jimmy Butler, who is looking at a possible max extension this upcoming summer.
With Joakim Noah anchoring the defense and Taj Gibson, Nikola Mirotic and Aaron Brooks coming off the bench, the Bulls would still have enough firepower to stay competitive and possibly make a deeper run than before even if Rose is not there.
Without the former MVP, though, a team like the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Toronto Raptors or the Washington Wizards becomes much tougher to overcome.
Rose is confident he'll be able to stay healthy and that his game will come to him, but he reminds everyone that it will come in time:
"When it comes to basketball, I listen to myself. I have a lot of confidence in myself and my talent. I know where I'm going to be in a couple of weeks. I know where I'm going to be at the end. It's just that y'all are going to be surprised to see me there. It's just going to take time.
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It's certainly encouraging to see him so confident, but the problem is injuries are unpredictable.
Sure, there's probably an equal chance that Rose is healthy as there is to him getting hurt again, but there's no denying the previous damage to his lower extremities.
Rose plays fast and aggressive—it's what separates him from the crop of guards around the NBA. But he's been unable to show that this season due to his the early setbacks. This season's hamstring injury was in a non-contact situation, just like his ACL and meniscus tear.
That's really the biggest fear, that another freak misstep could put a stop to what seems like Chicago's most promising season during the Rose-Thibodeau era. Injuries have already ended Rose's season twice; if it happens again, the Bulls will have to start looking for an alternative.
Planning for the Future
There are two different ways the Bulls could address a future without Rose. The first option is trading him for draft picks, although that could prove to be somewhat difficult if he is, in fact, coming off another injury.
The three-time All-Star has two years left on his deal (not including the 2014-15 season) worth just over $41.4 million, per Spotrac.com. By no means is that an easy contract to unload, especially with teams being a lot more cap-conscious. But considering Rose's age and remaining potential, rebuilding teams could take a chance on the former MVP in order to solidify their backcourt.
Chicago could then try to draft the best point guard available while using a veteran guard (i.e. Brooks) as a fill-in while the prospect adjusts himself to the NBA in his first couple of years.
This does, however, have the potential to close the championship window as Noah and Gibson go into their 30s. Younger players like Mirotic, Butler and Doug McDermott would make up a bulk of the new core, and Chicago could be back in the championship hunt within two or three years if all five are still intact along with the new point guard.
The Bulls could also elect a win-now solution, which would include trading Rose for an established point guard. The one player that comes to mind is Rajon Rondo as his future with the Boston Celtics is still up in the air.
Celtics general manager Danny Ainge remains adamant and doesn't seem like he will trade Rondo any time soon according to league executives, per B/R’s own Howard Beck. Beck continues: "many of those same executives believe that Ainge has to trade Rondo, to avoid losing him for nothing next summer."
A max deal for Rondo would be worth upwards of $20 million in average yearly salary, which is what Rose currently earns. With Marcus Smart waiting in the wings, maybe the Celtics' brass decides to part ways with its All-Star point guard in exchange for a younger option.
Rose's price tag could drive Boston away, but Chicago can sweeten the deal with draft picks and perhaps another young player to give Boston more depth (McDermott, for example).
Rondo is nowhere near the scorer Rose is, but the former's court vision is second to none, and the manner in which he creates for others and opens up the floor is something Rose—along with many other point guards—can't do.
While a Rose-less future is a hypothetical scenario, it isn't too far from the realm of reality. If Rose suffers a third major injury, Chicago cannot afford to lose another year waiting for the possibility that Rose can return to superstardom while the rest of the team ages.
Everyone involved—from players, to fans, to the front office—is hoping Rose can make it through the rest of 2014-15 unscathed. Maybe then, Rose could be back on the path to glory and pick up where he left off in 2012.
Fingers are crossed throughout the Windy City.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com.
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