5 Red Sox Predictions for the 2014 Winter Meetings Action

The winter meetings action traditionally provides the best hot stove buzz of the offseason. This year, baseball fans will turn their attention out west, as it will all go down in San Diego for the first time in three decades. The twists and turns as general managers meet with agents over fish tacos and discuss possible trades while sipping Mai Tai's is MLB's holiday gift to fans. 

The 2014 meetings are a big one for Red Sox GM Ben Cherington, who has trade chips at his disposal in the minors and at positions of excess (mainly outfield).

With a desperate need for starting pitchers and pressure to contend immediately, Boston should be among the most active clubs while in California. Expect them to pursue every possible lead as their 25-man roster finally starts to take shape, meaning plenty of interesting tidbits trickling out from December 7-11.

Without further ado, five predictions for the wave of developments to come.

The Red Sox Will Trade for Jeff Samardzija

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

The latest big name starter to be tied to the Red Sox is longtime Cub, and more recently an Athletics rental, Jeff Samardzija. The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo (h/t B/R's Joseph Zucker) reports the Sox are among "numerous teams" trying to obtain the 2014 All-Star, and Billy Beane continually shows he's never afraid to pull the trigger on a trade. 

The A's are a vastly different club than the team that was at one time considered World Series favorites last season. They dealt Yoenis Cespedes to Boston for the departing Jon Lester, All-Star third baseman Josh Donaldson was just shipped to Toronto and starting pitcher Jason Hammel is expected to leave in free agency.

As division foe Seattle spends big to make the leap to contender and with reigning division champ Los Angeles expected to return stronger than ever, it makes sense for Oakland to continue maneuvering for future seasons rather than immediate 2015 success. That makes Samardzija, who is set to be a free agent after this upcoming year, a prime trade chip to dangle.

John Farrell's rotation needs are well-documented, and Samardzija would serve as a strong No. 2 starter for the Red Sox in the near future.

The fireballer has always been able to miss bats (career 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings), but his improved command was the catalyst behind his best-ever season in 2014. Samardzija walked just 43 batters in a career-high 219.2 innings pitched this past year, posting a 1.8 walks per nine innings rate after averaging 3.8 free passes per nine innings over his first six MLB seasons, per Baseball-Reference.com.

His ground-ball rate has also shown steady improvement throughout his career (50.2 percent last season, 23rd-best in the majors, according to Fangraphs), further lending to the line of thinking that the soon-to-be 30-year-old can succeed in hitter-friendly Fenway Park. 

Beane is a skillful dealer and won't send Samardzija eastbound without fetching a pretty return, especially with multiple teams in the hunt. But if recent Red Sox history has proven one thing, it's that heralded prospects can often times look much better on paper when theorizing their potential ceilings.

What's Jackie Bradley Jr.'s trade value now that he's compiled 164 major league games with a paltry .196 batting average? Which prospect-needy teams are licking their lips at the idea of a deal centered around Allen Webster now that he has a 6.25 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 89.1 MLB innings to his name? Boston's third- and fourth-ranked prospects entering last season would now be ancillary pieces in any major deal. 

Therefore, I expect GM Cherington to sweeten the pot enough to entice Oakland to part with the long-haired, former Notre Dame wide-receiver-turned-starting-pitcher.

The A's could use a young shortstop after trading Addison Russell to acquire Samardzija, so Cherington could pair fielding savant Deven Marrero with one or two of the Matt Barnes-Brian Johnson-Eduardo Rodriguez pitching trio to get a deal done (give or take some cash considerations). 

Boston Will Enter the Max Scherzer Sweepstakes

Jim Mone/Associated Press

I maintain the belief that Jon Lester will re-sign with the Red Sox, but the homegrown All-Star is doing his due diligence with the suitors who have come knocking. As Lester takes his time perusing the free-agency scene, the reported price tag continues to climb.

Once thought the left-handed pitcher's services could be obtained for $20 million per season, CSN Chicago's David Kaplan reports the Cubs offered $135 million or more, while CBS Sports' Jon Heyman says Boston is willing to "go to $130 million, at the least" (h/t B/R's Mike Chiari). 

As we enter the realm of $22.5 million annually, the separation between what Lester will cost and the money Max Scherzer will demand keeps shrinking. While Lester dawdles over his options, it will be only natural for the big-spending Red Sox to check in on the 2013 AL Cy Young Award winner. 

Scherzer turned down a six-year, $144 million extension from the Tigers back in March, according to FOX Sports' Jon Morosi. While Detroit remains in the hunt, the Scott Boras client is unlikely to leave money on the table, so you can all but rule out a hometown discount. Though all 30 MLB teams can safely be labeled admirers, with a starting price north of $24 million a year, the list of potential wooers quickly dwindles.

When you eliminate teams in the beginning stages of rebuilding mode (Phillies, Rangers), those who already have an absurd payroll and are flush with huge starting pitching salaries (Dodgers) along with the club that has their own massive internal contracts to address on the horizon (Nationals), you're left with six most likely landing spots: Tigers, Angels, Giants, Cubs, Yankees and Red Sox. 

Of our refined group of escorts, reports say the Yankees aren't in on this year's top-end free agents. Then again, they're the Yankees with their seemingly endless payroll to go along with a history of swooping in under the radar.

The Tigers are clearly interested and willing, the Giants have money to burn after losing Pablo Sandoval, the Angels could focus this offseason's spending spree on a much-needed starting pitcher for a change and the Cubs are looking to make a splash with their Lester pursuit. So a bump up to Scherzer isn't unfathomable. 

Which brings us back to Boston. Taking a peep at Scherzer is inevitable, but if GM Ben Cherington loses out on Lester to the Giants or Cubs, it could be more than just a benign flirtation. Would a Red Sox club that has gone all-in on 2015 but remain in dire need of an ace be willing to go to six years, $160 million for the flame-throwing RHP? It's not out of the question. 

Shane Victorino and Allen Craig Will Be Dealt

USA TODAY Sports

A bolder man would predict a Yoenis Cespedes trade, but the longer I look at John Farrell's comments about the enigmatic Cuban, the more I think he'll be starting in right field come opening day. If a Cespedes-centric deal could land a Cole Hamels, Jordan Zimmerman or Johnny Cueto, then I would still pull the trigger as long as certain untouchable prospects weren't included (Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Blake Swihart).

But I think re-signing Jon Lester and pairing him with Jeff Samardzija is more the approach the front office is going to take to address the starting pitching concerns, at least at the onset. 

Rusney Castillo's cup of coffee in the big leagues last year wasn't enough to convince me he's ready to be a productive player for 162 games (not exactly an encouraging sentence for an OF who will turn 28 in the middle of the 2015 season and isn't even four months into his $72.5 million deal).

Cespedes is a known entity who could stretch the Boston lineup to be legitimately eight-people deep. Castillo will still get opportunities to play given that Mike Napoli and David Ortiz will have built-in rest days, and Hanley Ramirez is bound to miss 30 games or so with some variety of ailments.

If Castillo proves himself a reliable, everyday player the way Betts did last season, a Cespedes trade for a starting pitcher will still be available prior to the July deadline. 

As for Shane Victorino, he's "all systems go" after undergoing season-ending back surgery in August and says there are no plans for him to take it slow in spring training. Despite being limited to 30 games in 2014, the Flyin' Hawaiian was vocal about what he thinks his role should be next season, per WEEI's Rob Bradford:

"

If you think there’s somebody better in right, be my guest. Obviously health will dictate that. But if I’m healthy if there’s a better outfielder in right field then show me and go out there and do it. I’m not saying that in a cocky or arrogant way. It’s just how confident I am to know I should be the starting right fielder.

"

At a freshly turned 34 years old and entering the final season of his three-year deal, it appears more likely that Victorino's the starting RF for a another club in 2015. Betts' emergence coupled with the Castillo and Hanely Ramirez contracts show where Boston's management stands on their OF.

Though Victorino should be commended for his strong inaugural Red Sox season and clutch Game 6 home run that clinched the AL Pennant over the Tigers, his age and recent injury history make him the player to shop. He won't yield anything special, but as an immediate starter for another team, he could be shipped off for a decent pitching prospect.

He could also be paired with someone from the Red Sox farm system to get a No. 3 starter or a more promising youngster. 

Meanwhile, Allen Craig seemed to be unmovable after a horrendous season that was once again largely interrupted by injuries. Then the Miami Herald's Clarke Spencer reported the former Cardinal was on the Marlins' first basemen trade radar, making Red Sox fans everywhere scream "deal!" in unison before even hearing an offer.

The 2013 All Star is a strong rebound candidate given his track record of success at the plate (.312 batting average from 2011-2013), but with the logjam in the OF and Mike Napoli entrenched at first base, he's obviously expendable. Boston should flip him for whatever return he'll muster, hopefully a middling starting pitcher prospect.

Some acquisitions are merely short-term assets meant to be turned over, and given Boston's roster construction, Craig falls squarely in that category. 

Clay Buchholz Will Be Actively Shopped

Gerald Herbert/Associated Press

It may seem odd to think Boston would look to deal their starting pitcher with the longest track record of success given their desire to bolster the rotation. Then again, the two-time All-Star RHP has exceeded 170 innings pitched just three times in eight seasons, and that includes an abysmal 2014 campaign where he posted an ERA of 5.34 and a WHIP of 1.386.

His fragility and perceived lack of toughness have become increasingly sore subjects for Red Sox fans, reaching a high-water mark in 2013 when the nearly un-hittable Buchholz (1.74 ERA) couldn't get back on the field due to neck and shoulder soreness. When Buchholz did finally return, it was with clearly diminished stuff, and he was relegated to being a short-inning fourth starter in the playoffs who topped out at 89 mph. 

So when the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo reports there are interested teams who were impressed with how Buchholz pitched down the stretch last season, now would seem to be the perfect time to pull the trigger on a trade. The 30-year-old starting pitcher is set to make $12 million this upcoming season, with $13 million and $13.5 million team options for 2016 and 2017, per Baseball Reference. 

The advanced statistics say Buchholz was unlucky to have such crooked numbers last year (4.01 FIP, 4.04 xFIP, according to Fangraphs) but they also reveal how flukey that marvelous though shortened 2013 campaign was (career-best HR-to-fly-ball ratio at 4.5 percent, an unsustainable 83.7 percent strand rate and a .254 BABIP). 

The Red Sox shouldn't just give Buchholz away, as he's worth a dice roll in 2015 if he can't generate a respectable return. However, if Boston can turn him into a pair of prospects they could then use to entice other teams in trade offers for more reliable starting pitchers, then it's an avenue they should venture down. 

Dumping Buchholz as his contract enters the player-friendly portion of the deal adds extra appeal, but a change of scenery could really do him some good. With all the ill will built up in Boston, the scrutiny awaits Buchholz after every bad start or whisper of a possible injury. He could transition to the National League and leave the designated hitter behind or at the very least move to a pitcher-friendly ballpark that could help improve his production.

If either of those things were to happen, Buchholz could resurrect his career the way Phil Hughes did with Minnesota in 2013 once he escaped the AL East. 

Boston Will Pursue Andrew Cashner and Kris Medlen

USA TODAY Sports

As Boston leaves no stone unturned in its search for viable starting pitchers, a pair of names it'll get tied to during the winter meetings are Padres' Andrew Cashner and former Brave Kris Medlen. 

Cashner is under contract for two more seasons, making it appear a year before San Diego would likely shop him. However, after a Tommy John scare in 2014, I see the Padres being more aggressive with the 28-year-old power arm to make sure they capitalize on his value.

The extra year of team control for a trade partner would likely increase San Diego's return, and the Red Sox's stable of prospects gives the Pads options to add to the all-important farm system for their small market club.

TCU product Cashner's posted a 2.87 ERA over 298.1 innings pitched the past two seasons. His ground-ball percentage has been great throughout his career (50.9 percent, according to Fangraphs), and he hasn't been victimized by the long ball (33 HR allowed in 409.2 innings, though, playing half your starts in Petco Park helps).

His strikeout rate is underwhelming, but the advanced statistics reflect favorably on his recent success not being a fluke (FIP marks of 3.09 and 3.35 the past two years, per Fangraphs). A package constructed of a pitching prospect or two not named Henry Owens and third base prospect Garin Cecchini (now blocked by Pablo Sandoval) could be enough to get a deal done. 

As for Medlen, Atlanta decided not to tender the 29-year-old a contract before the Dec. 2 deadline after discussing a two-year deal with him, according to MLB.com's Mark Bowman. The RHP missed all of last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery during spring training, but that could allow the Red Sox to get him on a team-friendly contract.

The once-prized prospect sports a 2.75 ERA over 445 innings pitched since 2010, making a two- or three-year, incentive-laden deal a good gamble. Boston could bring Medlen along slowly with a midseason target date, not rushing his recovery and giving him a full 16 months since his procedure to make sure his arm is right.