Dallas Mavericks' Schedule Breakdown and Record Predictions for December
It might not feel like it, but almost one-fifth of the Dallas Mavericks’ season has already passed us by. After a month of play, the Mavs are sitting in the sixth spot in the Western Conference, with a 10-5 record.
Things have been up and down, but that was to be expected. Having so many new faces means an adjustment period for everyone, so seeing bumps in the road isn’t a big deal.
Then again, there are some bright spots.
The offense has been historically good. So far the Mavs are scoring 117.1 points per 100 possessions, a full 1.5 points higher than the 1986-87 “Showtime” Los Angeles Lakers. In other words, there’s a chance this could be the most efficient offense in NBA history.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. We’re not even through November yet, and December features matchups against some of the behemoths of the NBA.
It’s not exactly a trial by fire for the Mavericks, but they need to iron out the kinks if they want to establish themselves as real contenders in the West.
Week 1: 12/1-12/6
1 of 6
Dec. 2: @ Chicago
Dec. 3: @ Milwaukee
Dec. 5: vs. Phoenix
Right off the bat in December, the schedule isn’t favorable for the Mavs. They have to play three games in four nights, all against teams currently in playoff spots. And when your best player is 36 years old, a dense schedule is problematic.
As if that’s not enough, the month starts with a road test as Dallas travels to Chicago to take on the Bulls.
The Bulls suffer from many of the same problems as the Mavericks, though theirs are more prominent. Chicago’s roster also underwent something of an overhaul this summer, and the team is battling inconsistency in the early going.
And of course, there’s the Derrick Rose issue. The former MVP has only played in six of 14 games this season due to injury and is still trying to make his way back after missing the better part of two seasons with knee injuries.
That being said, this is the type of team that gives the Mavs trouble.
Though Dallas may be humming along on offense, the defense isn’t quite as impressive. According to Basketball-Reference.com’s adjusted defensive rating statistic, the Mavericks are allowing 108.2 points per 100 possessions, good for 21st in the league.
And this issue has reared its ugly head quite a bit this year. Normally poor offensive teams like Minnesota, Utah and Indiana have scored well above their season averages against Dallas, leading to tight games or losses.
Chicago has its struggles on offense but also hasn’t had a chance to completely jell yet. Now that Rose is back in the lineup, though who knows for how long, the core is back together.
And that core is 5-1 when Rose plays this year.
Chicago also has a reputation for playing a knockdown, drag-out kind of game, which is something Dallas wants to avoid on the first night of a three-games-in-four-days stretch.
It’s a tough way to start the month.
Predicted Record: 2-1
Week 2: 12/7-12/13
2 of 6
Dec. 7: vs. Milwaukee
Dec. 9: @ Memphis
Dec. 10: vs. New Orleans
Dec. 13: vs. Golden State
After the first week, things don’t exactly slow down for Dallas. The second week features a four-game slate, with a back-to-back sandwiched in the middle.
Not to mention that the Mavs get to play the two best teams going in the Western Conference right now.
The Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors have combined to go 22-4 this season, with the Grizzlies currently sitting atop the conference thanks in large part to their 8-0 home record. They also have the NBA’s third best defense, allowing only 92.4 points per game.
When the Mavericks come to town, something has to give.
Similar to the Bulls, the Grizzlies play a rough brand of basketball. They’re big, play defense, and wear teams down. That’s a style of play that doesn’t suit the Mavericks especially well.
On the other hand, the Grizzlies haven’t played too tough of a schedule thus far. They have played six games against teams that are .500 or better on the year, going 4-2. That seems like a much more reasonable record.
This game is going to come down to strength of personality, or which team can impose its will on the other.
If the Mavs can get into their sets, swing the ball around and be comfortable on the offensive end, they stand a good chance of putting a blemish on the Grizzlies' home record.
And if Memphis can play some bully ball, feed its bigs and keep this game low-scoring, it will probably keep on humming.
Playing the Grizzlies will be a measuring stick for this Dallas team. Memphis’ core has been together for a while now, and if Dallas can control the style of play, that will say a lot for the team's progress.
But considering how many games are packed into the week and the quality of opponents, asking for a win here is a tall order.
Predicted Record: 2-2
Week 3: 12/14-12/20
3 of 6
Dec. 16: @ New York
Dec. 17: @ Detroit
Dec. 20: vs. San Antonio
This week isn’t quite a break, but it’s certainly easier than the first two. The New York Knicks and Detroit Pistons are floundering around the bottom of the Eastern Conference, and even though the matchups are back-to-back and on the road, they shouldn’t be too tough.
But of course San Antonio comes to town on December 20, and that’s the real test.
The Spurs haven’t quite been Spurs-like this season. They’re 9-4 but also have a couple of head-scratching losses to teams they normally beat, such as New Orleans and Sacramento. Additionally, they’re playing a bit of a different style.
San Antonio’s adjusted defensive rating has gotten preposterously good, improving by 5.6 points since 2013-14 at 96.93 points allowed per 100 possessions. At the same time, its offensive rating has dropped by 7.04 points since last year, putting the team at 22nd in the league this season.
It’s quite a change for a team that made the basketball world fall in love with its offense as it clobbered the Miami Heat in the Finals last season, but it seems to be working thus far.
The Mavs already played the Spurs on opening night, but that 101-100 loss doesn’t carry a ton of weight moving forward. That was Dallas’ first real game as a team, and it was a sloppy affair. Neither the Mavericks nor the Spurs looked right, and the game was a toss-up at the end.
Now both teams have had some time to jell, and this will be a much better look at two of the top dogs in the West.
Predicted Record: 3-0
Week 4: 12/21-12/27
4 of 6
Dec. 22: vs. Atlanta
Dec. 23: @ Phoenix
Dec. 26: vs. Los Angeles
It's no secret that Dallas' defense isn't great. The Mavs don't rebound particularly well, don't have a go-to perimeter defender and play poor three-point defense.
You know what the Phoenix Suns do well? They take and make threes.
The Suns make 9.3 shots per game from deep, good for sixth in the NBA. They also attempt 26.3 three-pointers, fourth most in the NBA.
And the Mavs? Opponents are shooting 39.4 percent from deep on 25.7 attempts against them.
That seems like a problem.
Phoenix also plays a very different style than Dallas. The Suns run, jack up shots and score. They have the fifth fastest pace in the NBA and score 104.9 points per game.
This will be another strength-of-personality test for the Mavs. Good teams force their opponents to play the style they choose, and if Dallas is going to win this game, it will need to force the Suns to slow it down and play the type of game the Mavericks want to play.
It’s another chance for the Mavs to show how far they've come.
Predicted Record: 3-0
Week 5: 12/28-12/31
5 of 6
Dec. 28: vs. OKC
Dec. 30: vs. Washington
The Oklahoma City Thunder are 3-12 and currently in last place in the Western Conference, which isn’t much of a surprise considering both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have been sidelined with injuries.
But there’s hope.
ESPN.com's Joe Kaiser reported that the star duo of Durant and Westbrook resumed practicing with the team this week. And as if that’s not enough, they might even play this Friday. So things could be turning around very quickly for OKC.
And that means that when the Mavs get them at home on December 28th, the Thunder will probably have both stars back and reacclimated.
So much for an easy win.
The Mavs beat the Thunder two out of three times last season, though things have changed since then. There’s no more Shawn Marion to match up with Durant on the outside, but Dallas has upgraded its rim defense with Tyson Chandler. So the way the team defends the Thunder won’t be the same.
And even while their two stars have been out, the Thunder have been playing lights-out defense. They’re 10th in the NBA with a defensive rating of 104.3, which is better than teams like Chicago and Indiana.
Oklahoma City should be back to full strength by the time it rolls into Dallas, which is a scary thought. The Thunder are one of the best teams in the league when healthy, and since health shouldn’t be an issue, this game will be a tough one for the defensively challenged Mavs.
Predicted Record: 1-1
Recap
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Ultimately, December will be a great test of where the Mavericks are. Optimists say this team should be one of the best in the league, not just the West. Dallas has plenty of opportunities to prove its backers right in the last month of the year.
The first two weeks are rough, as every team Dallas plays is currently at .500 or better. But the month has an easier stretch in the middle for the Mavericks to regain their stride if need be.
Keep in mind that the Mavs are still coming together, as they’ve only played 15 games as a unit. This is far from a finished product. Last season, Dallas didn’t really hit its stride until February, when it went 9-3 and started to beat some marquee teams.
But this iteration of the Mavs is a much more talented one and has looked better from the start. Although December will be a test, it should be one Dallas passes.
Final Predicted Record in December: 11-4
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com.
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