Despite Mounting Injuries, OKC Thunder Still a Firm Championship Contender
The Oklahoma City Thunder are still an NBA championship contender.
Yes, injuries have left the roster with only eight healthy players. Yes, Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant, the team's two best players, are among the walking wounded. Yes, the team is already off to a 1-2 start in a deep Western Conference.
While all of that may be cause for concern, it's still way too early to write off a team with so much talent. The next four to six weeks will be a tough test that will ultimately make the Thunder better. During that span, they'll be playing without Durant, Westbrook, Anthony Morrow and rookie Mitch McGary.
Even with a depleted roster, the Thunder have shown incredible moxie. They hung with the Portland Trail Blazers in the season opener and were ahead after three quarters before running out of steam in the fourth. The next night, they fought hard against a good Los Angeles Clippers team before losing by three.
"It's unfortunate the way it is right now, but we have to figure out how to get better from all of our experiences," head coach Scott Brooks said, per The Associated Press, via ESPN.com. "Good teams and good players bounce back from adversity, and our guys understand that."
While winning a title is the ultimate goal, the Thunder's focus needs to be on getting healthy and making the playoffs. There's 79 games left. There's no need to panic yet.
Injuries Create Opportunity
The silver lining to losing key players to injury is that it opens the door for others to step up in their absence. The Thunder have seen prospects accelerate their development by logging meaningful minutes that they wouldn't otherwise have.
At different points in the last two years, Reggie Jackson has used Westbrook's knee troubles to raise his standing with the team. He averaged 13.9 points during the 2012-13 playoffs and 13.1 points last season, playing mostly in relief of Westbrook.
Now, he's a vital part of the team's bench and one of the few players on the roster who can take over offensively.
This year, with the Thunder becoming the NBA's All-Infirmary team, the guy poised to break out is forward Perry Jones. After an awful season debut (three points, 1-of-9 shooting), Jones has led the Thunder in scoring in each of his last two games.
He scored a career-high 32 points against the Los Angeles Clippers and followed that up by going for 23 in a 102-91 win over the Denver Nuggets.
"It was a good feeling, especially looking at the bench and how wild they were getting," Jones said, per AP, via NewsOK.com. "We're just sticking together. Running offense the way you're supposed to run it."
After averaging 3.5 points per game during his first two seasons, Jones has raised that number to 19.3 points per contest this year. Adding to his versatility as a scorer, the 6'11", 235-pound big man from Baylor is shooting 37.5 percent from three.
Per 100 possessions, Jones' 2014-15 numbers translate to 26.4 points and 6.4 rebounds.
Jones isn't the only one who's contributing on offense, either. The Thunder got rare offensive production from center Kendrick Perkins in the win over Denver. The big fella scored 17 points, his best output since Feb. 8, 2013, against the Phoenix Suns.
"Felt good," Perkins said, per Anthony Slater of The Oklahoman. "Kinda brought me back to my high school days a little bit. Caught a rhythm."
The importance of Jones' emergence and Perkins turning back the clock is twofold. First, it's a sign of a team playing as a sum of all its parts as opposed to two stars and a pack of role players. To use a music reference, the Thunder went from being The Supremes to becoming the Wu-Tang Clan.
Rather than defenses game-planning for Durant or Westbrook, opponents must now be mindful of the entire roster. Any of the team's eight healthy players can be "the guy," as evidenced by Perkins' big night.
"It was a team effort. Everybody chipped in," Brooks said of the win over Denver, per Darnell Mayberry of The Oklahoman. "When you have eight guys, it’s a band of brothers just rallying for one another and trying to figure it out."
With the supporting cast playing admirably in their new lead roles, the Thunder will become a much deeper team when they return to full strength. With everyone healthy, Oklahoma City will have a 10-man rotation that looks like this:
| Position | Starter | Backup |
| Center | Steven Adams | Kendrick Perkins |
| Power Forward | Serge Ibaka | Nick Collison |
| Small Forward | Kevin Durant | Perry Jones |
| Shooting Guard | Andre Roberson | Jeremy Lamb |
| Point Guard | Russell Westbrook | Reggie Jackson |
Now, Adams is still scratching the surface on his potential, averaging nine points and 6.7 rebounds. Jackson and Lamb have also yet to make their regular-season debuts. Plus, Morrow will factor into this equation, too.
Still, this team could be two-deep at each position by the time the playoffs tip off.
A lack of depth has been a problem for Oklahoma City in the past. It's one of the main reasons it has leaned hard on Durant (league leader in minutes played last season) and Westbrook. This year, the team now has a solid bench that can step in and contribute.
Favorable Scheduling
The next month and a half without the team's Fractured Four (Westbrook, Durant, McGary, Morrow) has been made out to be the end of the world.
To quote Aaron Rodgers, "R-E-L-A-X. Relax."
While it's understandable to be worried about being short-handed for the next few weeks, the Thunder have received a gift from the scheduling gods. In the month of November, Oklahoma City will have six games against teams that made the playoffs last year:
- Nov. 3 at Brooklyn Nets
- Nov. 4 at Toronto Raptors
- Nov. 7 vs. Memphis Grizzlies
- Nov. 16 vs. Houston Rockets
- Nov. 21 vs. Brooklyn Nets
- Nov. 23 vs. Golden State Warriors
Of those six games, only the first two will be played away from Chesapeake Energy Arena. Outside of those six, the rest of the early schedule comes against teams that finished with losing records last year.
Assuming the team will be without the Fractured Four until mid-December, the toughest game they will play in the first two weeks of the month comes Dec. 11 against the Cleveland Cavaliers. If that foursome is back by the Dec. 14 clash with the Phoenix Suns, the Thunder would have went 23 games without them.
Let's say Oklahoma City splits the rest of their November slate, including losing to those six playoff teams. In the first six games of December, I'll give them the nod over the Philadelphia 76ers, Detroit Pistons, Milwaukee Bucks and Minnesota Timberwolves while losing to the Cavs and New Orleans Pelicans.
That's 11-9 over the next 20 games, which means Oklahoma City could be 12-11 by the time everyone possibly comes back. Optimistic? Sure. Possible? Absolutely. At worst, the Thunder are 8-15 with that schedule.
That would give them 59 games to get back into playoff contention. Last season, the Memphis Grizzlies went 10-15 in their first 25 games playing mostly without Marc Gasol and still nabbed the seventh seed.
Barring any setbacks, the Thunder will have just under 60 games of Durant and Westbrook willing the team into the postseason. Given the easy sledding the first two months, the climb won't be as lengthy. If this current group can continue to play like it did against Denver, the team could stay afloat until reinforcements come.
The Thunder may not be one of the top four seeds or have home-court advantage, but they will enter the postseason as one of the toughest outs in the tournament. They will be deeper than they've been in the past, and the two biggest stars won't have a full season's worth of tread on their wheels.
There are plenty of reasons to give up on the Oklahoma City Thunder's championship hopes this season. They are a battered bunch playing in a tough conference. Their best player is dealing with a Jones fracture in his foot. Nothing breeds pessimism quite like uncertainty.
However, even in their recent misfortune, the Thunder should consider themselves lucky. They are taking their lumps early instead of in the playoffs like the past two seasons.
It's a huge undertaking for a team with so many unproven players, but this kind of hardship will help the team grow. Instead of star power, the Thunder will rely on team chemistry and guile.
Eventually, Durant and Westbrook will return. When that happens, the team will more closely resemble a championship contender than a MASH unit. The big difference will be that the supporting cast around the league's best one-two punch will be stronger.
The regular season is 82 games. It's a long ride. There will be plenty of bumps, but the Oklahoma City Thunder will get where they need to go.
All statistics courtesy of BasketballReference.com unless otherwise noted.
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