Ranking the Top 5 Candidates for Every Major NBA Award Entering 2014-15 Season
The NBA may be the most predictable of the major American professional sports leagues, but that doesn't mean there's a crystal ball that can lend complete clarity to basketball's awards picture before the season tips off Tuesday evening.
Who knows how LeBron James will fit in with the new-look Cleveland Cavaliers? Which stars, other than Kevin Durant, will miss significant time due to injury? Which teams will win enough to thrust their coaches into the limelight? Which rookies will transition most seamlessly into the world's best basketball league?
Realistically, all we can hope to do is make educated guesses that don't look silly in hindsight.
Let's have a look, then, at five of the top candidates for each of the Association's six biggest awards: Rookie of the Year, Most Improved Player, Sixth Man of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, Coach of the Year and Most Valuable Player.
Here are some of the criteria that yours truly considered when cobbling together candidates for each award:
- Rookie of the Year: basic stats projections (i.e. points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers, field-goal percentage), expected role, NBA readiness
- Most Improved Player: change in role from previous seasons, individual room for improvement, age (younger players tend to improve faster than older ones do)
- Sixth Man of the Year: general production, size and importance of role on a team, team performance on vs. off, team bench production
- Defensive Player of the Year: basic defensive stats projections (i.e. rebounds, steals, blocks), size and importance of role on a team's defense, expected team performance on defense
- Coach of the Year: expected change in team record from previous season(s), how team responds to adversity (i.e. injuries, losing streaks, off-court distractions), creativity, recent success
- Most Valuable Player: basic stats projections, advanced stats projections (i.e. net rating, win shares, usage rate, turnover rate, PER), expected change in team record from previous season(s), expected team performance on vs. off
Rookie of the Year
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5. Bojan Bogdanovic, SF, Brooklyn Nets
Bogdanovic didn't have himself a particularly strong preseason (35.0 percent shooting from the floor, 22.7 percent from three), but that isn't likely to keep the 25-year-old Croatian from being the first rookie in 15 years to start on opening night for the Nets.
“He’s progressing," head coach Lionel Hollins told the New York Post's Brian Lewis. "It’s still a process, but I like what he’s done and I’m sure he’ll be a better shooter as we go along. He’s been a good shooter in Europe. But he’s a really good basketball player. I just want him to go out and be aggressive and make whatever play is there to make."
4. Elfrid Payton, PG, Orlando Magic
Payton already projects as a plus defender and will have to shoulder a ton of on-ball responsibility for the Magic until Victor Oladipo returns from the facial fracture he suffered during the preseason.
Fortunately for Payton, he'll begin his pro career just across the river from his hometown of Gretna, Louisiana, when Orlando goes toe-to-toe with the New Orleans Pelicans on Tuesday. "It's everything you ever dreamed of, if this was your dream," Payton told Gannett Louisiana's Tim Buckley.
3. Andrew Wiggins, SG/SF, Minnesota Timberwolves
According to Minnesota Timberwolves head coach/front-office guru Flip Saunders, via the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Charles F. Gardner, Wiggins is already "tired" from an emotionally exhausting summer, during which he spent more than a month in limbo as a ghost member of the Cleveland Cavaliers. The T-Wolves' underwhelming on-court prospects won't help matters any, but so long as Wiggins catches his fair share of Ricky Rubio lobs, he should be in the ROY running.
2. Nerlens Noel, PF, Philadelphia 76ers
The last time a highly touted prospect missed what should've been his rookie season with a knee injury, that player (Blake Griffin) became just the third unanimous Rookie of the Year in NBA history. While Noel can't so much as sniff Griffin's level, his place as a centerpiece on a fast-paced, sad-sack Sixers squad should afford him the statistical leeway he'll need to garner serious award consideration.
1. Jabari Parker, SF, Milwaukee Bucks
If the Bucks improve dramatically on last season's 15-win total, Parker will probably be one of the key catalysts therein. He already has the body and the skill set to succeed in the NBA, and he should lead all rookies in scoring, if his 15.1 points per game in the preseason were any indication.
Most Improved Player of the Year
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5. Anthony Bennett, PF, Minnesota Timberwolves
A summer move into a new role on a new team in a new city should do wonders for Bennett, whose disastrous rookie season became a symbol of all that was wrong with the LeBron-less Cleveland Cavaliers. So, too, should Bennett's healthier, trimmer frame, from which he dropped 20 pounds over the summer, per the Minneapolis Star Tribune's Kent Youngblood.
4. Jimmy Butler, SG, Chicago Bulls
Butler's status for Chicago's season opener against the New York Knicks remains in doubt on account of a thumb injury suffered during the preseason.
Prior to that, though, Butler looked like he was coming into his own. The fourth-year swingman averaged 15.8 points during his six exhibition appearances, with a 29-point explosion and a game-winning shot against the Atlanta Hawks to boot. Butler won't have to be a star next to Derrick Rose, but if he can be a credible complement to the former MVP, Jimmy Buckets should find himself in the mix for some hardware of his own.
3. Klay Thompson, SG, Golden State Warriors
The pressure's on Thompson to perform at an All-Star level this season. Golden State's affinity for Thompson played a pivotal part in Kevin Love not coming to the Bay Area. And now that the Warriors are resisting Thompson's demands for a max extension, according to Yahoo Sports' Marc J. Spears, the Washington State product will have to earn his money this season.
Not that he should have any trouble with that. Thompson stands to benefit handsomely from Steve Kerr's emphasis on ball movement. He certainly did during two of the Dubs' final three preseason games, with 29 points against Miami and 35 more at the Nuggets' expense.
2. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, Charlotte Hornets
Kidd-Gilchrist already ranks among the NBA's best perimeter defenders, with an All-Defensive nod soon to follow. Thanks in large part to Hornets assistant coach Mark Price's guidance, MKG might now have an actual jump shot (as opposed to his former crooked concoction of flying limbs) around which to fashion a passable offensive approach. As Grantland's Danny Chau wrote:
"The Hornets are much better with him on the court than when he’s off it. There’s an entire ecosystem within Kidd-Gilchrist’s game, one based on effort, tenacity, and sharp instincts. All it needs is some space to breathe. It’s early, but it looks like there might be signs of life here.
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1. Anthony Davis, PF, New Orleans Pelicans
As for MKG's former Kentucky teammate, Davis is already well on his way to cementing his place among the league's elite. Davis' actually finished third in MIP voting last year, when he averaged 20.8 points, 10.0 rebounds and a league-best 2.8 blocks as a first-time All-Star. Another leap into the superstar stratosphere could be enough to earn the Pelicans power forward his first major piece of NBA hardware.
Sixth Man of the Year
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5. Isaiah Thomas, PG, Phoenix Suns
There may not be a more prototypical sixth man in the NBA today than Thomas. Like so many players of his ilk, Thomas is a scoring point guard who'd probably be a shoe-in to start somewhere if not for his diminutive stature and the defensive struggles it implies.
With the Suns, Thomas will be the key to unlocking three-guard lineups, alongside Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic, that could take the league by storm.
4. Reggie Jackson, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder
An unfortunate twisted right ankle suffered during practice Monday could keep Jackson sidelined for the start of the season, per The Oklahoman's Darnell Mayberry. And if there was any justice in the basketball world, Jackson would be starting for the Thunder.
But Scott Brooks seems inclined to slot Andre Roberson into Thabo Sefolosha's old spot and move Jackson back to the bench, despite his strong play during the postseason last spring. Assuming that's the case, look for Jackson to come back with a vengeance—especially with restricted free agency on the horizon.
3. Jamal Crawford, SG, Los Angeles Clippers
Crawford could be on the outs for L.A.'s season opener as well, though the Clippers took precautions with their scoring sixth man and his vague injuries.
Crawford can still fill it up with the best of them, but at the age of 34 and with his body already out of whack (however slightly), he may have a tough time maintaining his previous pace over a long, grueling campaign.
2. Tristan Thompson, PF, Cleveland Cavaliers
Chances are, there will a come a time this season when Anderson Varejao gets hurt and Thompson has to take his place at center for the Cavs. Until then, Thompson should settle in as Cleveland's first man off the bench.
The Cavs won't likely ask Thompson to do much beyond setting solid picks, catching and finishing near the hoop, grabbing rebounds and defending his position. But that role could be vital to Cleveland's success. It just so happens to mirror that of another strong Sixth Man candidate in the Central Division...
1. Taj Gibson, PF, Chicago Bulls
Gibson has practically written the book on how to contend for Sixth Man honors as a big in this day and age: defend, rebound, do the dirty work and score around the rim. He did that (and more) for the Bulls last season, when he averaged 13.0 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.1 assists and 1.4 blocks and finished a close second to Crawford at the ballot box.
Pau Gasol's arrival in the Windy City spelled an extension of Gibson's stay as a super sub, for better or worse. Gibson won't likely get the crunch-time run he was used to when Carlos Boozer was last in a Bulls uniform, but that shouldn't keep him from earning serious consideration for this award.
Defensive Player of the Year
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5. LeBron James, SF, Cleveland Cavaliers
According to NBA.com, the Cavs finished the season ranked 17th in defensive efficiency in 2013-14—not great, but certainly an improvement over their abysmal showings from Byron Scott's tenure. If Cleveland slides toward the top 10 in this department, James figures to garner plenty of credit for the improvement. After all, he's the only player of consequence the Cavs added this summer who's both an above-average defender and still young enough to live up to that billing.
(Sorry, Shawn Marion.)
4. DeAndre Jordan, C, Los Angeles Clippers
Jordan came into his own as a defensive force last season, at least as far as stats are concerned. He led the NBA in rebounding and finished third in blocks per game while anchoring a Clippers defense that ranked among the league's 10 best.
L.A. has come to rely heavily—too heavily, perhaps—on Jordan's ability to clean up both the glass and his teammates' messes. Whether the Clippers succeed or fail defensively, the results will ultimately fall on Jordan's shoulders.
3. Serge Ibaka, PF, Oklahoma City Thunder
How can the Thunder survive without their four-time scoring champion? Simple: defend like gangbusters. In fact, OKC's arrival as an elite team (2011-12) coincided with its leap into the top 10 in defensive efficiency, per NBA.com.
All of that began right around the time Ibaka announced himself as an elite defender. The 25-year-old forward led the league in shot-blocking twice in the last three years and already has three All-Defensive first team selections on his resume. He's been in the DPOY conversation three years running, and that streak should continue in force this coming season.
2. Joakim Noah, C, Chicago Bulls
The DPOY award essentially doubled as Noah's MVP trophy last season. His all-around efforts kept the Bulls afloat without Derrick Rose, but it was on the defensive end where he truly shined.
Now that Rose is back and Pau Gasol has replaced Carlos Boozer up front, Noah no longer needs to shoulder such a massive burden for the Bulls to succeed. That could drag him down at the ballot box—or free him up to be even more of a beast on the defensive end.
1. Roy Hibbert, C, Indiana Pacers
If the 2013-14 season had ended at the All-Star break, Hibbert would've been the runaway DPOY winner. Even with his own slide and that of the Pacers on a whole, Hibbert still finished (a distant) second in the voting while leading the league's stingiest defense.
Whatever hope Indy has of extending its playoff streak to five years will depend largely on Hibbert's efforts, not unlike Noah's situation in 2013-14. Should the Pacers remain competitive—with Lance Stephenson gone and Paul George, David West and George Hill all grappling with various injuries—it'll be Hibbert and his defense that lead the way.
Coach of the Year
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5. Quin Snyder, Utah Jazz
The manner in which Jason Kidd extracted himself from the Nets would seem reason enough to think he won't get much support in COY voting, even if the Bucks do bounce back in a big way.
Snyder's record isn't exactly squeaky clean either, though at least his transgressions occurred at the collegiate level rather than in the NBA. In any case, the fact that Snyder is not Tyrone Corbin may be enough to unlock the true talent on the Jazz's roster, particularly on the defensive end. As Grantland's Brett Koremenos wrote:
"The Jazz finished third in defensive efficiency this preseason. Granted, it is only preseason, but it’s still a promising development. It’s a stretch to think Snyder can turn a 30th-ranked defense into an elite unit with Favors as the only strong defender (though Steve Clifford did take Charlotte from last to sixth without much help), but the Jazz should be much improved.
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4. Steve Kerr, Golden State Warriors
Snyder's situation in Salt Lake City isn't entirely unlike Kerr's in the Bay Area. Granted, the Warriors were and are much better off than the Jazz, and Mark Jackson was far better at his job than Corbin ever was at his.
The point is, though, that Kerr could succeed simply by unlocking the immense offensive potential of Golden State's roster. According to RealGM, the Dubs ranked second in offensive efficiency and third in assist percentage during the preseason—not the most reliable numbers given the context, but still far cries from their most recent ranks (12th and 12th, respectively) under Jackson, per NBA.com.
3. David Blatt, Cleveland Cavaliers
Blatt has a lot going for him in this race.
He's a new name in the NBA, albeit one whose credentials as a thinker are impeccable overseas. He's coaching a Cavs squad that hadn't won more than 33 games in any of its previous four season, and he'll be doing so with the likes of LeBron James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving at his disposal.
Moreover, Cleveland has enough holes, particularly on the defensive end, to put Blatt's credentials as a tactician to the test.
Blatt's biggest problem? His stars are far more likely to hog the spotlight for the team's successes than he is to garner so much as a sliver of it.
2. Rick Carlisle, Dallas Mavericks
It's been 12 years since Carlisle was last named Coach of the Year, back when he was with the Detroit Pistons. His chops haven't diminished one bit, as his most recent 49-win season with the Mavs would suggest.
Carlisle should have a field day with Dallas' current roster, which gained faces old (Tyson Chandler, J.J. Barea) and new (Chandler Parsons, Jameer Nelson, Raymond Felton, Al-Farouq Aminu) this offseason. The closer Carlisle can push his Mavs toward the West's crowded upper crust, the better his odds will be of adding a second COY to his collection.
1. Gregg Popovich, San Antonio Spurs
Nobody has ever won back-to-back COYs. Nor has anyone ever taken home more than three in a given career.
Who's to say Gregg Popovich won't be the first on both counts? It's unlikely, sure, but everyone recognizes that Pop is the best in the business. Perhaps being the default choice will be enough to give Pop a head start, with the Spurs' on-court successes pushing him past the finish line.
Most Valuable Player
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5. Kevin Durant, SF, Oklahoma City Thunder
Missing the first chunk of the season due to a foot fracture won't help Durant's MVP prospects any. After all, it's tough to be the most valuable in the league if you're not around to provide said value.
But, if the Thunder struggle without him and turn things around when he gets back, and he's able to stuff stat sheets again like it's nobody's business, Durant could find himself in the thick of the race for another Maurice Podoloff Trophy.
4. Russell Westbrook, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder
On the flip side, if OKC holds steady without Durant—or even performs remarkably well—with Westbrook as the catalyst, it'll be the Thunder's mercurial point guard who gets all the love.
Westbrook is certainly capable of producing like an MVP. During the most recent playoffs, Westbrook averaged 26.7 points, 7.3 rebounds, 8.1 assists and 2.2 steals, albeit while shooting 42.0 percent from the floor and turning the ball over 4.4 times per game.
Don't be surprised if he betters those numbers while Durant is sidelined. As one executive told Bleacher Report's Ric Bucher, "This is his chance to show he can carry a team and that he's the heartbeat of that team. I don't know if that's good or bad, but I'm sure that's how he is looking at it."
3. Dwight Howard, C, Houston Rockets
Hate on Howard all you want, but this could be the year he finally returns to his near-MVP form. He's as healthy as he's been in years, he's comfortable in Houston and he'll be more responsible for the Rockets' success (or failure) now that Chandler Parsons, Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin are gone.
If Howard looks anything like he did during the Rockets' first-round series against the Portland Trail Blazers this past spring (26.0 points, 13.7 rebounds, 2.8 blocks), he'll be too tough to ignore as an MVP candidate.
2. Blake Griffin, PF, Los Angeles Clippers
Griffin checked in third in last season's MVP balloting, behind only Durant and LeBron James. Back then, Griffin was just getting used to playing for Doc Rivers and was still only an occasional (and marginally effective) jump-shooter.
Now, Griffin's launching mid-range shots like he's the second coming of Karl Malone, and Rivers has a greater grasp of how to use his superstar power forward.
The only problem? Griffin plays with Chris Paul, who could siphon off enough MVP votes for himself to hurt Blake's chances.
1. LeBron James, SF, Cleveland Cavaliers
He's back home, playing for a team that struggled mightily in his absence. His old squad (the Miami Heat) is due to take a sizable step back without him, while the Cavs look ready to shoot up the ranks of title contenders. His chief competition (i.e. Durant) could be out of commission until December.
James' biggest impediment to a fifth MVP trophy may well be how his coach decides to allot his minutes. "I don't have a number but I am cognizant of the fact and we are conscious of the fact that, certainly early on 39 minutes a game is a lot," David Blatt said after a recent Cavs practice (via Northeast Ohio Media Group's Joe Vardon). "We gotta keep our wits about us in terms of thinking long term with LeBron."
If the voters keep their wits about them, they should find James to be the game's best once again in 2015.
What do you think of my picks? Tweet me your thoughts!
