San Francisco 49ers: Week 8 Offers Little Help in the Playoff Race

The San Francisco 49ers still control their own playoff fate, but Week 8 in the NFL did them very few favors.  Most of the NFC’s playoff contenders won their matchups on Sunday, and matchups between two contenders almost uniformly went against the 49ers’ way.

It was so close to being a perfect week in the division too.  The St. Louis Rams were dispatched early by the Kansas City Chiefs, but that left the two biggest rivals in the divisions pulling out last-second victories.

The Seattle Seahawks looked sluggish and sloppy for three-and-a-half quarters against the Carolina Panthers, but they kept hanging in there.  The Panthers repeatedly settled for field goals when they could have had touchdowns, scoring only six points on three trips to the red zone.

Chuck Burton/Associated Press

That kept the Seahawks alive long enough for Russell Wilson to remember he was Russell Wilson.  Wilson drove the Seahawks 80 yards on nine plays to score the one and only touchdown of the game, and the defense clamped down to give Seattle the 13-9 win.

Then, the current division-leading Arizona Cardinals took on the 5-1 Philadelphia Eagles, and they had a showstopper in the desert.  The two NFC leaders slugged it out in a primarily defensive slugfest.  The Cardinals stuffed the Eagles on 3rd-and-inches right at the goal line to force Philadelphia to settle for a field goal with about two minutes left in the game.  Then, with a 75-yard pass from Carson Palmer to John Brown and a defensive stop of their own, the Cardinals struck to win 24-20 and go to 6-1.

A play or two goes differently, and the NFC West would have gone 0-3, with the 49ers gaining a half-game against all of their rivals.  Instead, the Seahawks caught up to the 49ers while the Cardinals moved a full two games ahead, while still holding the head-to-head tiebreaker.

It puts 49ers fans in an awkward situation next week—for once, they’ll have to get fully on to the Dallas Cowboys bandwagon, as the Cardinals roll into JerryWorld for a matchup with Tony Romo and his one-loss gang.  The 49ers will need the Cardinals to drop at least one and most likely two more games before their Week 17 clash to have a chance of catching them for the division—and that’s if the 49ers don’t stumble on their upcoming road trip.

As for the Seahawks, a three-game losing streak would have been great for quashing their hopes for a repeat, but the last-second win might re-ignite the dormant champions.  The Seahawks get a cushy two-game homestand against the Oakland Raiders and New York Giants over the next two weeks.  I’m not convinced that, in the long run, it won’t be Seattle taking home the NFC West crown.  A loss for either or both of those squads would seriously have aided San Francisco’s cause.

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

At least the Arizona win had a bit of a silver lining to it, as it means the Philadelphia Eagles dropped a game.  The two NFC wild cards will almost assuredly come from the six teams in second and third place in the NFC West, East and North, so any loss by that crew will help the 49ers.  The 49ers also would love for the Eagles to be one of the teams they battle for the wild card, as they’ve clinched the tiebreaker over Philadelphia thanks to the 26-21 win back in Week 4.

The 49ers also did see the Chicago Bears get ground into a fine powder by the New England Patriots, which helps, but they were falling behind in the race anyway.  The other two top NFC North teams are a bigger threat to San Francisco’s playoff hopes, and that ended up as a mixed bag.

By the time most 49ers fans were waking up, the Detroit Lions and Atlanta Falcons were wrapping up their showdown in London in a bizarre fashion.  After the Falcons took a 21-0 lead in the first half, the Lions chipped their way back into it, setting up a game-winning field goal.  They missed their first attempt at it, but a false start nullified that, giving Detroit a second try, which they converted for a bizarre win.  Rather than be a half-game ahead of the 49ers in the wild-card race, then, they moved a full 1.5 games up.

Bill Haber/Associated Press

The Lions are no longer competitors in the wild-card race at the moment, however.  On Sunday Night Football, the Green Bay Packers had a chance to keep their hat in as one of the top teams in the NFC.  However, a slight tweak to Aaron Rodgers slowed their offense down, and the New Orleans Saints got a much-needed win.  That moves the Packers into the sixth seed at the moment and the Lions into sole possession of the NFC North.  That was certainly unexpected.

To sum up, the 49ers’ odds of winning either wild-card slot have improved, thanks to losses by the Eagles and Bears.  However, the wins by the Seahawks and Cardinals in the NFC West have lowered the 49ers' odds of making the playoffs overall, as they lost a half-game on the cream of the division.

Oddly enough, the 49ers' odds of home-field advantage actually improved some.  The only two remaining one-loss teams in the NFL are the Cardinals and the Cowboys.  The 49ers already have the tiebreaker over Dallas and could re-gain their tiebreaker over Arizona thanks to their Week 17 matchup.  They also have the tiebreaker over one of the two two-loss teams, Philadelphia.  While the top seed is still a bit of a pipe dream for the 4-3 49ers, it got a little more realistic this week.

All this scoreboard watching, however, is a bit moot at this point.  Come this time next week, the 49ers either will or will not still be in control of their own playoff destiny, and it all comes down to whether or not they beat the St. Louis Rams. 

There is no scenario that has the 49ers in control of their fate in the division next week, even if the Cowboys beat the Cardinals and the Oakland Raiders somehow upset the Seahawks.  Nor is there a scenario by which the 49ers even move into control over the No. 5 seed, thanks to the superior records in Green Bay and Detroit.

Scott Kane/Associated Press

No, it’s a very simple scenario for the 49ers next week.  Complete the season sweep against the Rams, and the 49ers set up for their two-game trip to New Orleans and New York in control of their own playoff fate.  Drop the game at home, and the 49ers will find themselves in need of help from other teams to even make the playoffs.

The bye week is over, and it’s time to stop scoreboard watching for the moment.  The 49ers don’t need help to ensure a playoff run; as long as they take care of their own business, they’ll be alright.  It’s time to get back to work for the second half of the season, and try to make a deep playoff run.

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers.  Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.