Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets: What Are Experts Saying About New York?
Most head coaches, players and NFL experts will tell you to throw away the record books when it comes to divisional games. The New York Jets have won one game all season. The Buffalo Bills are second in the AFC East standings, yet the Jets are heavily favored to win their Week 8 matchup.
The familiarity of playing a team twice every season marginalizes the advantages. The outcome comes down more to player execution and less about schemes—unless you’re the St. Louis Rams outsmarting the Seattle Seahawks on special teams.
The Bills backfield will feature a new duo for the immediate future starting Sunday. Bryce Brown, who filled in briefly for LeSean McCoy with the Philadelphia Eagles in 2012, and Anthony Dixon—a four-year reserve previously with the San Francisco 49ers.
On paper, the collective talent advantage tilts in favor of New York. After three weeks of facing off against the top teams in the AFC, Gang Green should view this division game as a break in the storm. The Jets are starving for another win to keep their season out of the dumpster, while the Bills try to keep pace with the New England Patriots.
Alan Schechter: Percy Harvin Will Return Kicks
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The initial buzz continues to grow about Percy Harvin and his role within the Jets offense. Rex Ryan acknowledged Harvin’s explosiveness but is tempering his expectations for the receiver’s debut. Alan Schechter of The Jet Press shared Ryan’s answer to a Q&A about Harvin’s impact in his first game as a New York Jet.
"Obviously, you don’t have the benefit of training camp or a whole lot of time together, but we will see. Certainly we plan on using him. How much he plays this first week, again we will see. I think it’s safe to say he is going to return kicks, and then we will see what else he can do. And he is going to play, it’s just how much I guess still remains to be seen.
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Ryan, who is typically upbeat and loves to rave about his players, spoke with logic. Without a training camp to get acquainted with the playbook, expect the newly acquired receiver to run basic routes and contribute on special teams.
This is the beauty of a talent like Harvin—he can hurt a defense in multiple phases of the game. In his career, he has five kickoff returns for touchdowns. Even on the most basic checkdown pass into the flat or wide receiver reverse sweep, he’s viable to breakthrough for a big play. The Bills still need to know where Harvin is on each play to prevent being burned by his speed.
Ryan Alfieri: Aboushi Strengthens Offensive Line
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Bleacher Report’s Ryan Alfieri highlighted the satisfactory play at left guard from Oday Aboushi in his first start against the Patriots on Thursday Night Football. Despite a penalty that negated a touchdown, Alfieri noted the second-year player out of Virginia can certainly hold his own.
He made this assessment of Aboushi's first NFL start:
"While he did not exactly put together a report card grade worthy of the kitchen refrigerator, Aboushi made more of an impact in how he was able to handle exotic fronts and blitzes with little help—an area that Winters struggled most in.
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New York’s offensive line has been out of sorts but turned in an overall solid performance in Week 7. Whether or not the addition of Aboushi makes that much of a difference in the trenches remains to be seen. He’ll be tested by defensive tackle Marcell Dareus. Dareus is on pace to outperform last year’s Pro Bowl season as a front-line powerhouse, leading the team with seven sacks.
Aboushi’s second start against Buffalo brings a difficult challenge, but it also serves as a measuring stick for the young guard’s development over the past two years.
Brian Costello: Quinton Coples Back in Starting Lineup
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Gang Green’s defensive front performs so well week to week that Quinton Coples riding the pine last week went virtually unnoticed.
Coples has a grand total of three tackles and one sack in five games this season. Sacks haven’t been his forte, but he has also been unable to track the football. This alone indicates why Ryan decided to bench the former first-round pick from the 2012 draft.
Based on the order in which Coples was drafted, his production doesn’t come close to matching expectations. Aside from a handful of sacks in the previous two seasons, the defensive lineman-turned-linebacker continues to come up small on the field.
To the third-year linebacker’s credit, he took the high road when asked about being benched for the Patriots game per Brian Costello of the New York Post.
"This room is filled with competition,” Coples said. “At the end of the day, your number can be called to step down and see if someone else can beat you out or whatever. You never know. You have to be ready to put your pride to the side and do whatever you can to help the team. They felt he was better at helping the team at that point.
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Jason Babin is the "he" Coples referred to in the quote.
Babin only assisted with one tackle in his starting role, and Coples will return to the starting lineup against Buffalo. The tactic was likely used to push a player who exhibited much potential at the college level but has seemingly lost his way at the professional level.
There’s no doubt the clock is starting to tick on Coples' position within the Jets defense. It’ll be interesting to see how he responds against Buffalo after serving a reserve role.
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Rich Cimini: Jets Don’t Have Cornerbacks to Cover Sammy Watkins
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It was clear the Jets wide receiving corps needed help, and the solution was acquiring Harvin. Gang Green’s pass defense is just as needy, especially after losing Dee Milliner for the season. The signing of Josh Thomas, per Pro Football Talk, doesn’t even put a Band-Aid on the gashes the Jets have endured from quarterbacks surgically picking apart their defense.
Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady were all able to carve up the Jets defense with very little resistance. The three quarterbacks combined for a 9-1 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions.
Rich Cimini of ESPNNewYork.com points to the ongoing struggles of defending the pass without a top-notch cornerback.
"The Jets don't have a true No. 1 corner to match against Watkins. Heck, they don't even have a No. 2 corner. Because of injuries and bad personnel decisions, Ryan is mixing and matching, using Darrin Walls and Phillip Adams as his starters after giving up on Antonio Allen as a corner.
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Sammy Watkins is the dynamic playmaker on the Bills offense that Coach Ryan must negate to avoid falling behind early. He and Kyle Orton concluded last week’s contest with a game-winning touchdown play to beat the Minnesota Vikings in regulation. The rookie wide receiver scored both of Buffalo’s touchdowns, and he continues to build a rapport with his veteran quarterback.
As Cimini also mentioned, Allen’s move to cornerback hasn’t panned out. Furthermore, the lack of talent causes constant personnel changes in an effort to cover the Jets' conspicuous weakness in defending the pass.
Fortunately for New York, the Bills don’t have a prolific tight end similar to the Jets' past three opponents. Game-planning for the week and coverage during the game will focus more so on Watkins than anyone else on the Bills offense.
Bleacher Report Consenseus Pick: New York Jets
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Bleacher Report’s Expert Consensus Picks favor the Jets over Buffalo. The six-game losing streak didn’t discourage expert analysts. However, the absence of Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller from the Bills lineup is perceived as too much to overcome.
Furthermore, Buffalo just struggled to beat the Vikings at home, needing a last-second play to pull out the victory. Though the Jets' record is horrendous, they’ve played above-average teams and were competitive—with the exception of the San Diego Chargers.
Since opening the season against the Oakland Raiders, the Jets roster has been the less talented team in the matchup. This isn’t the case against Buffalo in Week 8. Without Spiller and Jackson providing a bit more than 100 rushing yards per game, the offense becomes one-dimensional. A stagnant offense places too much pressure on the defense to shut out opposing offenses. To Jets fans, that dilemma sounds all too familiar.
Advanced statistics provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com
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