Boston Red Sox's Guide to the Free-Agent Hitting Market
The Red Sox, in theory, don't have much to do on the hitting front this offseason.
Their outfield is set, as are three key positions in the infield. The only positions in flux are catcher and third base. While the catcher's spot is likely to be occupied by Christian Vazquez, the club does need a backup catcher, and it's entirely possible the Red Sox look for someone to split time with Vazquez more evenly.
The team will also likely explore the backup infield market, even as Jemile Weeks impressed in a late-season audition after a waiver trade with the Baltimore Orioles.
But what if that's not all the Red Sox do on offense?
For one, just because the team has solutions in the outfield doesn't mean Boston shouldn't pursue upgrades therein. And as The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo reports (h/t CBS Boston's Gresh and Zolak radio show), it has been rumored that the Red Sox could deal outfielder Yoenis Cespedes mere months after acquiring him in exchange for ace pitcher Jon Lester.
This list holds six targets the Red Sox should be focused on this offseason. The first such target is an outfielder, but he's one who would fit in perfectly with the team. While signing him would cause even more of an outfield logjam, the Red Sox would absolutely find a way to fit in the possible newcomer.
Target: Nelson Cruz, Left Fielder
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Fresh off his first 40-home run season, Nelson Cruz is the pre-eminent power threat on the market.
A year after seeing his market significantly impacted by a qualifying offer the Texas Rangers tagged to him, Cruz should have no problem securing a lucrative deal after proving he could deploy his power outside of the friendly confines of Globe Life Park, where the Rangers play.
Cruz has a bit of a link to the Red Sox, as David Ortiz appealed to both the Red Sox and Cruz in an attempt to recruit the left fielder to Boston last offseason, according to Ryan Hannable of WEEI.com (h/t NESN's Ricky Doyle). Red Sox chairman Tom Werner admitted that perhaps the team should have listened to Ortiz, telling The Boston Globe's Peter Abraham it was a mistake not to try to sign Cruz.
As general manager Ben Cherington noted in an interview with the Dennis and Callahan Show (h/t Doyle), however, part of the hesitation in signing Cruz was the fact Boston would've had to give up its first-round pick for the honor of inking Cruz. That's no longer a consideration after Boston's season gave the team one of the first 10 selections in the 2015 amateur draft.
These selections are protected, meaning Boston can sign a player with a qualifying offer attached to him and only give up a second-round pick. Combine that with a desire to improve the team immediately, and adding Cruz would inject some serious power into the Boston lineup.
While the Dominican is challenged defensively, any long-term contract Cruz signed would come with the expectation he moves to designated hitter once Ortiz retires.
Yes, signing Cruz creates even more of an outfield logjam. But isn't that a nice problem to have? And wouldn't you rather have Cruz over almost anyone else in that outfield?
Target: Pablo Sandoval, Third Baseman
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The Red Sox have a few internal options to man third base: Will Middlebrooks, Brock Holt and Garin Cecchini.
Middlebrooks hasn't proven capable of holding down a starting spot in two seasons, Holt fell apart after the All-Star break and is best used in a utility role and Cecchini still has questions about defense at the hot corner and likely isn't ready for full-time duty.
The Red Sox could go one of two directions here: go big on a third baseman or sign a stopgap and hope that Middlebrooks, Holt or Cecchini emerge down the road.
If they go big, Sandoval is the clear bat on the market. While there are questions surrounding Sandoval's ability to keep the weight off, at this time, he is considered a solid defender, being named by ESPN as July's Defensive Player of the Month. A long-term deal could always see Sandoval shift to first base or DH.
There's no question Sandoval's bat would slide in nicely in the middle of the order, particularly as a switch-hitter.
Sandoval is also fairly young for the free-agent market these days, as he only turned 28 in August. That means a long-term deal for Sandoval carries a lot less risk than long-term deals for older players.
While Sandoval doesn't have much plate discipline, the Red Sox don't shy away from adding these types of players if they prove an ability to make contact and can deliver power. With a career batting average of .295, he fills that ability to make contact. He also rarely strikes out, never topping more than 85 in any of his seven seasons.
Low-strikeout players are quickly becoming a valued commodity in the game due to strikeouts spiraling out of control for hitters and the fact that the Kansas City Royals made the World Series with an offense geared toward making contact and avoiding strikeouts.
Target: Ben Zobrist, Utilityman
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Don't get your hopes up.
The Tampa Bay Rays hold an extremely affordable $7.5 million option on Zobrist's services, making him a virtual lock to return to Tampa next season. However, if the Rays shockingly turn down the option, Zobrist would instantly become a highly valued asset in free agency.
Not only does Zobrist have a history of delivering power (although that has slipped the past two years), but he also offers extraordinary value in his ability to draw pitches and take walks, and he would fit right in with Boston's offensive philosophy.
In addition, his strikeouts have declined in each of the past four seasons, and he struck out just 84 times this past year. As mentioned in the prior slide, the ability to make contact is rising in value.
Zobrist could be a nice compromise between Sandoval—who will command a pricey contract—and going small at third base. The 33-year-old could man the hot corner and move all over the diamond. In 2014 alone, Zobrist saw time at second base, shortstop, left field, right field and center field. He's also appeared at third base and first base in the past.
The ability to move Zobrist around offers extraordinary value, as he could effectively serve as the starting third baseman, the backup infielder and the backup outfielder.
One caveat is that out of all the positions he's appeared in, he has the least experience at third base, appearing in just four career games.
Whether or not he's a viable third baseman is a question better left to the experts inside Boston's front office. However, if there is any belief there that he can man the position—even on a part-time basis, receiving playing time elsewhere to make up for it—his switch-hitting abilities, propensity to take a walk and avoidance of strikeouts all make him an excellent fit for the Red Sox offense.
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Target: Chase Headley, Third Base
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Let's say that Pablo Sandoval ends up signing elsewhere and Ben Zobrist returns to the Rays on the club option. Where does that leave the Red Sox?
Chase Headley would be the next best fit for a squad that is looking for someone who can bat left-handed and fill in at third base. The switch-hitting Headley would fit in with Boston's pursuit of a left-handed hitter, as Jason Mastrodonato of MassLive.com writes.
Yes, Headley's days of being a relevant hitter, such as when he finished fifth in MVP voting back in 2012, are likely gone. But that doesn't mean he's finished as a hitter. On the contrary, Headley still draws walks quite well and showed a rebound with his contact skills once he escaped San Diego's Petco Park by hitting .262 with the New York Yankees (along with a .371 OBP and .398 slugging percentage).
That grinding ability of Headley's has value. Coupled with strong defense, Headley makes all the sense in the world as a perfect short-term option at third base who would still leave the door open for Middlebrooks, Holt or Cecchini to make a statement. Given his struggles offensively the past couple of years, Headley should be easily signable on a one- or two-year deal.
Target: Geovany Soto, Catcher
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One position the Red Sox could seek to upgrade on offense that no one is really discussing is the catcher's spot.
Yes, Christian Vazquez's defense and ability to gun out would-be base stealers already lands him among being one of the best defensive catchers—if not the best defensive catcher—in Red Sox history.
But are fans ready to see Vazquez hit on a full-time basis? Hitting has never been his strong suit, which he proved by slashing .240/.308/.309 over 201 plate appearances with the club in 2014.
Finding a part-time player to share time with Vazquez makes sense, and Geovany Soto just happens to be a free agent who would slide in nicely with Vazquez in a timeshare.
Injured for much of the 2014 season, he deserves a mulligan for his Vazquez-like .250/.302/.363 line across 87 plate appearances. More telling is his 10-year average of hitting .248/.334/.436, which is a strong offensive profile at catcher.
Soto, who will start the 2015 season at 32 years old, will be looking to rebuild his value and could be amenable to a one-year deal, which would allow him to tutor Vazquez for a season and not stand in the way of touted prospect Blake Swihart's ascension to the major leagues at some point in 2015.
As the Red Sox look to return to the playoffs, wouldn't the services of the 2008 NL Rookie of the Year help?
Target: Mike Aviles, Utiityman
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Even if the Red Sox bring in a third baseman and put Brock Holt on the bench, the team will still need a backup infielder.
Could that result in Mike Aviles' return to Boston?
The Cleveland Indians hold a $3.5 million club option on Aviles, and it's anyone's guess whether it is exercised due to Cleveland's financial constraints and a poor season from Aviles, who posted his worst OPS of his seven-year career outside of his sophomore campaign when he only played in 36 games.
As a superutility player for the Indians, Aviles appeared at six positions for Cleveland this past season—all three outfield positions plus second base, third base and shortstop. Aviles' clear ability to play shortstop is what would prove attractive to Boston, as right now, the team's depth at shortstop is rather poor.
While Jemile Weeks impressed late in the season in backup duty, his prowess at shortstop is not considered to be strong. Holt is also not considered a strong defender at short, which could open the door for Aviles to return to Boston, where he spent part of 2011 and all of 2012 as the starting shortstop.
Given his advancing age (he will turn 34 in spring training) and his poor offensive season likely making him available as a strict backup, he offers pop off the bench. That pop and ability to play defense at shortstop outweighs Aviles' weaknesses in plate discipline (where he combined over the past two seasons to walk just 13 times in 768 plate appearances).
Remember, we're talking about a backup infielder here, one who would play less than Holt. Of all the potential options to fill such a role, Aviles offers the most promise because of his power, ability to play multiple positions and an existing familiarity with Boston.
Target: Tyler Colvin, Outfielder
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Another outfielder, you ask?
The idea behind pursuing Tyler Colvin isn't to replace any starting outfielder or even to earn a spot on the 25-man roster.
Even with an outfield logjam, it's important for the Red Sox to build solid outfield depth that can step in as a bench player or, if disaster strikes, as a starting outfielder. Signing Tyler Colvin to a minor league contract and giving him an opportunity to compete for a spot on the 25-man roster in spring training makes all sorts of sense.
Why?
As you may have noticed, power is in short supply all over baseball, and while there are lots of questions surrounding Colvin, power isn't one of them after slugging .531 over 452 plate appearances for the Colorado Rockies in 2012.
He has plenty of issues making contact, as his .239 career batting average indicates, but it's not too late for Colvin to suddenly figure things out again, like he did once upon a time. That's because he's just 29 years old, and baseball won't give up on players with the power potential Colvin has.
That's why Steve Pearce continued to get opportunities every year for the Pittsburgh Pirates and Orioles, finally delivering in 2014 with a breakout campaign for Baltimore at age 31.
Safeguarding against worst-case scenarios is never a bad idea. Having Colvin in Boston's back pocket will ensure the Red Sox have an answer for any injuries. And who knows? Maybe Colvin is the next Pearce.
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