Los Angeles Lakers Offer Jordan Hill Right Stage for True Breakout Season
Plenty has been made of the Los Angeles Lakers' 2014-15 campaign. From Kobe Bryant's return and Julius Randle's arrival to Steve Nash's swan song and Jeremy Lin's latest career-defining crusade, there are pressing angles galore in Hollywood.
Add Jordan Hill breakout watch to that list.
Unlike the rest of his peers—including Carlos Boozer and Ed Davis—Hill has flown under the radar. He signed his contract—two years, $18 million—and that was pretty much it. There's been no talk about him developing a three-point shot (thankfully), no mention of him becoming a more prominent part of Los Angeles' offense. There hasn't even been chatter about his hair, which is still growing strong.
Focus has lied elsewhere, in Bryant's renewed love for extreme fadeaways, Randle's conditioning, the Lakers' apparent aversion to three-pointers and many other areas. But while there are more important players and developments to follow, the opportunity being granted to Hill is not insignificant. It's actually big.
Breakout big.
Existing Evidence
Head coach Byron Scott has already named Hill as the starting center, according to the Los Angeles Daily News' Mark Medina. That's more than Mike D'Antoni did for Hill last season. Frankly, it's more than any NBA coach has done for him in the last five years.
Last season saw Hill waffle in and out of the Lakers' fluid, ever-changing starting lineup. He played in 72 games and came off the bench in 40 of those. His role on that 27-win dumpster fire was a visual exercise in inconsistency.
Enjoying the continuity of confirmed purpose helps by itself. Perpetual turbulence has plagued Hill's NBA tenure. The only consistent aspect has been confusion.
And his play.
When Hill is on the floor, he's productive. He averaged 9.7 points and 7.4 rebounds on 54.9 percent shooting per game last year, all of which are career highs.
Both the Lakers' offense and defense were worse with him on the floor, but that often happens when rotations resemble musical chairs and the team just isn't good. More important than his lack of profound impact on a team that wasn't built to win was everything else Hill did.
Aside from setting some personal bests, Hill was second on the Lakers in win shares (4.4)—also a career best—behind only Jodie Meeks (4.5). Of all players who appeared in at least 70 games and averaged 20 or more minutes, he ranked third in offensive rebounding percentage (13.8) behind only Samuel Dalembert (14.4) and Andre Drummond (17.5). He also finished seventh in overall rebounding percentage among qualified players.
Perhaps the best part of Hill's rebounding displays was the fact that he earned his keep.
Almost half of his boards (3.4) were contested, which NBA.com defines as a rebound grabbed when an opposing "player was within the vicinity (3.5 feet)" of said play. That was good enough for eighth in contested rebounding percentage (46.4) among all players who averaged at least three per game, putting Hill ahead of notable board-bangers such as Serge Ibaka (43.6), Anthony Davis (44.4), Kenneth Faried (42.1), Blake Griffin (40.8) and...wait for it...keep waiting...just a little longer...Kevin Love (40.1).
Now, that doesn't diminish the performances of players such as Love and Davis, but it's impressive on Hill's part. He had to fight for his rebounds, and he fought well.
"Hill’s happy to do the dirty work though," wrote Hardwood Paroxysm's Kris Fenrich, "and his mostly competent game is appealing among this rag-tag collection of Lakers."
Imagine what he can do with more playing time.
More Minutes, More Numbers
No, we're not backing off the minutes thing. Hill logged just 20.8 ticks per game last season, a number that can only be considered tragically low. No other player who snagged seven rebounds and appeared in at least 50 games averaged fewer than 24.6. Hill was underplayed and underappreciated.
Look at how his playing time varied by month:
Give Hill more minutes and he's going to grab more rebounds. It actually is that simple.
In the 12 games during which he played more than 30 minutes last season, he averaged 11.3 rebounds. This isn't difficult to understand—which is why Scott already has a grasp on Hill's importance:
Averaging a double-double isn't out of the question.
If Hill is going to start, he's going to play starter's minutes. Scott isn't one to experiment unless it's necessary. That much was abundantly clearly during his time in Cleveland, New Jersey and New Orleans.
“I'm going to walk into our locker room the first day of our meeting and say, ‘I want to win a championship,'” Scott declared in September, per Medina. “I don't want us thinking it's fine if we just make the playoffs or think we have no shot at making the playoffs."
Contending for a playoff spot and championship is an ambitious goal for these Lakers. Too ambitious. The word "delusional" is not inappropriate here. The Western Conference is stacked; the Lakers are not.
But that mindset guarantees Scott won't look to tinker with the starting lineup and rotation. It promises more minutes to the players he's preparing to use.
So, Hill.
Picture what Hill could do with 25 minutes, 30 minutes, even 35 minutes. Regular double-doubles are certainly within reach if that's the case.
Only 11 players tallied at least 10 points and 10 rebounds per game last year, an exclusive list that includes Joakim Noah, DeAndre Jordan, Dwight Howard, DeMarcus Cousins, LaMarcus Aldridge, Davis, Drummond and Love.
More playing time could put Hill in their company. If you really think about it, he's already there; he's averaging a double-double per 36 minutes for his career (14.7 points and 11.6 rebounds).
Playing short bursts allows players to boost prorated totals, but Hill has failed to pace himself for a double-double benchmark just once in five years. He's also averaging 15.8 points and 11.1 rebounds when logging at least 30 minutes.
Spending time at center should help, too. He registered a 25.4 player efficiency rating when playing the 5 last year, noticeably higher than the league average (15), per 82games.com.
Really, Hill only needs to play. He's been pulling the weight of an above-average player for years. He just doesn't have the minutes recognition to show for it.
Prepare for Liftoff
This isn't a matter of Hill becoming an offensive or defensive focal point. This isn't about him becoming an All-Star or developing into someone he's clearly not.
Like Silver Screen & Roll's James Lamar emphasizes, it's about him coming into his own:
"This season, Hill doesn't have to become the All-Star his fellow 2009 lottery mates have blossomed into. Players don't draft themselves, and sometimes player-team marriages just aren't meant to be. It's the risk-reward of team building. What matters now, though, is Hill being trusted for who he is, poised for a breakout year for a Lakers team hoping to develop their frontcourt of the future.
"
Hill will still be the same player in many ways. He'll still be hoarding rebounds. He'll still be the guy under the glass tasked with cleaning up misses. He'll still be limited defensively. He won't draw status comparisons to Stephen Curry, Blake Griffin or James Harden, his draft-day peers. The difference will be in the volume. The Lakers will ask him for more of what he already does—an opportunity he's already taking seriously.
Alcohol is no longer one of Hill's dietary staples, according to the Los Angeles Times' Mike Bresnahan. He's taking better care of his body as he tries to make the most of a contract year.
Just the first season of his deal is guaranteed. Los Angeles holds a team option worth $9 million on the second year. With that much coin—or an entire new contract—on the line, Hill has every reason to follow last season's career performance with another one.
A better one.
"I made it a point to myself—it's time to grow up," he said, per Bresnahan. "I wanted to help bring another ring here and I wanted to be a professional about it."
Capturing a championship is out of the question for now.
Equally valuable, though, is what Hill actually has the chance to accomplish in the meantime: making something more of a career that, until now, hasn't opened the door for a breakout year like the one he's fast approaching.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com unless otherwise cited.
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