Should the Eagles Be Concerned About Nick Foles?
One year after he put together one of the most astonishing statistical seasons in NFL history, Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Nick Foles has been nothing more than mediocre during the first five weeks of the 2014 NFL regular season.
We aren't dealing with a full-blown quarterback emergency just yet, mainly because the Eagles are 4-1—tied for the best record in the NFL—as well as the fact Foles hasn't received a lot of support from an offense that has been crushed by injuries.
But there's no denying that Foles' production has dropped off in dramatic fashion, and not just in terms of sheer numbers.
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As you can see, his rate-based stats have plummeted:
| 2013 | 64.0 (8) | 27-2 (1) | 9.1 (1) | 119.2 (1) |
| 2014 | 59.1 (26) | 8-5 (22) | 6.8 (21) | 82.5 (23) |
As have his key advanced stats:
| 2013 | 74.2 (6) | 68.1 (5) | 45.5 (13) | 1011 (5) | 35.6 (2) |
| 2014 | 66.3 (27) | 57.7 (20) | 31.0 (23) | 141 (19) | -0.4 (22) |
Those first three rankings are among either 27 or 28 qualifying quarterbacks. In the first case, it's 27. In other words, Pro Football Focus views Foles as the least accurate quarterback in the league thus far in 2014.
For explanations on DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) and DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average)—which essentially measure a player's efficiency in comparison to a replacement or the average—Football Outsiders provides a full explanation here. This year's DYAR and DVOA rankings are among 34 pivots; last year's were among 45.
Based on that DVOA metric, Foles and Colin Kaepernick have been the most average quarterbacks in the NFL this season.
Foles was never supposed to sustain the out-of-this-world numbers he put up in 2013. That touchdown-to-interception ratio set a new NFL record, that passer rating was the third-highest in NFL history and that yards-per-attempt average led the league by a wide margin.
Defenses have more tape on him now. I get it. For the first time in his three-year career, he was a Week 1 starter.
And the offensive line is a mess, which has factored in. Left guard Evan Mathis and center Jason Kelce—both of whom were ranked No. 1 in the league at their respective positions by Pro Football Focus (subscription required) last season—are out indefinitely, while stud tackles Jason Peters and Lane Johnson have both missed time for disciplinary reasons.
As a result, reigning rushing champion LeSean McCoy has joined the pro football witness protection program. He's averaging just 2.9 yards per carry, which ranks 43rd among 46 qualifying backs, and one year after being the only offense in football to average more than 5.0 yards per rushing attempt, the Eagles have plummeted to 23rd in football at 3.8.
| 2013 | 47.0 (6) | 160.4 (1) | 5.1 (1) | 20 (1) |
| 2014 | 38.4 (24) | 98.6 (23) | 3.8 (23) | 3 (14) |
But here's the thing: While the lack of balance has definitely hurt, it's not as though the pressure has been insurmountable. In fact, according to PFF, Foles was under pressure more often last season than he has been early this year. And he's been sacked just once in the last four weeks.
The difference is how the 25-year-old has performed while under duress:
| 2013 | 34.3 | 47.9 (13) | 68.1 (5) |
| 2014 | 33.0 | 45.2 (15) | 57.7 (20) |
It should also be noted that four of Foles' five interceptions this season have come on plays in which he wasn't under pressure. Look at these pockets:
The lone pick under pressure had more to do with Foles holding onto the ball too long than anything else. That image on his third pick, against San Francisco, was taken 3.9 seconds after the snap. You hold on that long, you don't stand much of a chance.
A full two seconds earlier, this was Foles' pocket:
And he had options:
Again, even looking past the numbers and taking pressure and support (or lack thereof) into account, Foles has been off his game more often than not, causing me to wonder whether he's the long-term answer for this organization. Let's further review the tape.
His mechanics are a mess
Thing is, Foles is pretty slow. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are probably slower, but watch their feet in the pocket compared to Foles. We aren't talking straight-line speed or explosiveness—the man quite simply doesn't move his feet fast enough when dropping back and navigating the pocket, and opposing defenses are well aware.
Here's how Eagles head coach Chip Kelly broke it down during his press conference on Monday, via comments distributed by the team:
"I think sometimes when that happens, there’s a rush and he’s trying to slide to the right or slide to the left and not setting his feet when he slides, in terms of staying on top of it and staying in a good platform to throw the ball. That’s one of the things that you look at with some of the movement stuff within the pocket where he’s got to be a little bit firmer with his feet.
[...]
Sometimes guys are coming that you didn’t expect—there’s a 3-technique that beats the guard, so he’s got to slide-step. Usually, you kind of understand that when there’s a blitz coming and you know where the unblocked guy is coming from, but sometimes when you think it's going to be solid, but you feel a little bit of pressure and you’re stepping to your right or to your left, you just need to do a little better job of getting your feet set before you throw the football.
"
Kelly did add he believes that problem is fixable, but you can see bad habits as they set in. The last starting quarterback in this city, Michael Vick, is well aware of how hard it can be to kick said habits. And it's not as though Foles merely has to correct one issue.
He's also developing a nasty habit of throwing the ball off of his back foot.
In the first quarter against St. Louis, Foles has a chance to slide right with an unblocked rusher about to bust into the pocket:
But instead he throws off his back foot toward a well-covered receiver:
Later, he had to see where the pressure was coming from here:
And yet he stepped right into it, rather than sliding horizontally:
That resulted in a sloppy pass that was almost intercepted, and it became a common sight throughout the game, just as it has all season. Another example from the third quarter:
Looking at these types of plays, it's no wonder Foles already has eight turnovers, doubling his total from all of last season.
Yes, four of those came as a result of questionable decisions and/or bad passes, rather than his footwork, but keep in mind that he's also lost three fumbles, two of which occurred when he was less than smooth navigating the pocket against Jacksonville. The third took place when he couldn't execute a simple slide on a scramble against the Rams.
It's not as though Foles' mechanics were significantly more polished last season. It's just that you fail to notice those little things when everything is going right. And again, it was a long offseason—defenses have had a chance to catch up and pinpoint ways to exploit his weaknesses.
What's clear is that Foles doesn't have the pocket presence we see from elite quarterbacks like Manning, Brady and Drew Brees, or even similarly-experienced peers like Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck. Considering that he was drafted much lower than all of those quarterbacks except the anomaly that is Brady, that probably shouldn't come as a surprise.
It's not as though he's insanely accurate or has a cannon for an arm, either, so Foles has a natural disadvantage in the competitive world of NFL quarterbacking. Without a ton of support and great coaching, he's liable to struggle.
That's exactly what's happened thus far this season.
He's making poor decisions
All of this ties together. What you do with your feet is somewhat reflexive, based mainly on training and muscle memory. But when Foles steps into the rush rather than slide away from it, he's making the epitome of a bad decision.
I won't beat that dead horse, except to say that, flukes and blown coverages notwithstanding, there isn't a quarterback in the world who can succeed while delivering passes on even a semi-consistent basis in this way:
The guy took a lot of heat last season for holding onto the ball too long. Generally, he's still been doing that—after taking a league-high 2.88 seconds to throw last year, per PFF, he still ranks fifth among 27 qualifying quarterbacks with an average of 2.72 seconds this season—but you can also tell he's been overcorrecting.
Foles is forcing far too many throws into traffic, which is especially dangerous when your feet aren't set and you can barely plant, let alone step into it.
He had no business going to Riley Cooper here in the end zone against San Francisco:
Ditto with Jeremy Maclin on that interception against St. Louis. At no point did the receiver even appear to be remotely open:
I know he's had a lot of interior pressure to deal with, but again, it hasn't been substantially greater than it was last season. It just feels that way because Foles is no longer pulling rabbits out of his helmet.
He's missing open receivers
I mentioned that league-worst accuracy percentage. That's a stat which accounts for dropped passes, throwaways, spiked balls, batted passes and passes on which the quarterback was hit while throwing, and yet Foles still ranks behind guys like Geno Smith, EJ Manuel and Jake Locker.
NFL quarterbacks can't completely miss wide-open receivers in the red zone the way Foles did with Jordan Matthews Sunday against St. Louis, especially considering there was no pressure:
Same deal on this near-pick wide of an extremely open Brent Celek against Washington:
In Foles' defense, he's gone deep on 20.7 percent of his passes this season, which according to PFF is the second-highest rate among the league's qualifying quarterbacks. But you've still gotta hit on some of those. Which leads me to my next point.
He's missing too many deep balls
According to PFF, on passes that traveled 20 yards or more against the 49ers in Week 4, Foles was 1-for-13. He went deep a little less often last season, but he completed a solid 45 percent of those throws. He also had 14 deep touchdowns and only one pick.
This year, that completion percentage has dropped to 26 and he already has four interceptions when throwing deep.
It's enough to make you wonder if DeSean Jackson's absence is hurting more than many expected. The Pro Bowl receiver, who was cut in the offseason, has been ably replaced by Jeremy Maclin, who spent the 2013 campaign on injured reserve with a torn ACL. But the Eagles had zero drops on 55 Foles deep balls last year, and they already have two on 42 this season.
Jackson led the NFL last year with 16 deep receptions, according to PFF, eight of which resulted in touchdowns. For whatever reason, No. 2 receiver Riley Cooper hasn't been himself—he's one of three receivers leaguewide with more than one drop on deep passes—which has made things tougher on Foles.
Maclin can't do everything.
Then again, there's no excuse for missing open receivers in these spots:
In each play above, there was no pressure.
What's scary is that it's possible Kelly is losing faith in Foles' ability to make big plays with his arm. After averaging 9.8 deep attempts during the first four weeks of the season and going just 1-for-13 against San Francisco, Foles was only able to throw three passes of 20-plus yards Sunday against St. Louis.
Instead, the offense ran a lot of short routes, screens and packaged plays designed to result in quick and easy completions. As I spotlighted above, Foles still found a way to get into plenty of trouble, but it's not a great sign that on Sunday, Kelly had Foles hand the ball off on a 3rd-and-6 at the St. Louis 44-yard line during the fourth quarter.
It's early, but not too early
If this championship-starved organization is going to call somebody its "franchise quarterback" at this stage of the game, he'd better be capable of taking the team to the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl-caliber quarterbacks can't lose the confidence of their head coaches, no matter the circumstances. Maybe that's not the case, but that deep passing rate is at least a clue.
And Super Bowl-caliber quarterbacks can't be brought down this low, no matter the circumstances. They don't go from superhero to John Doe just because the running game isn't having success, or because the offensive line isn't keeping things clean as a whistle.
In 2007, 2008 and 2010, Peyton Manning's line in Indianapolis allowed more pressure than all but a handful of other units, yet Manning was MVP in '08 and a Pro Bowler the other two years. In that 2010 season, Charlie Johnson, who was graded by PFF as the fourth-worst pass-blocking left tackle in the league (min. 12 games), manned Peyton's blind side.
In fact, during his entire 13-year run with the Colts, Manning only ever had two offensive linemen—Jeff Saturday and Tarik Glenn—make the Pro Bowl. Glenn, who was the only strong tackle he ever played with, was gone by 2007.
The only Pro Bowl tackle Brady ever had was Matt Light, but Light isn't around now and he wasn't a Pro Bowler until after New England's glory years.
Charles Brown was an absolute disaster on Drew Brees' left side in 2013, grading out at PFF as the seventh-worst tackle among 77 qualifiers. Yet Brees went over 5,000 yards with a 104.7 passer rating in an All-Pro-caliber season.
And in six seasons, Aaron Rodgers has never worked with an All-Pro lineman.
Between 2006 and 2010, Manning's Colts averaged just 3.73 yards per rushing attempt, ranking second-worst in the NFL over that span. Also in the bottom 10 were Brees' Saints at 4.0. Brady's Patriots were in the middle of the pack at 4.14. Yet one of those guys was an All-Pro every year, they were all perennial Pro Bowlers, they all went deep into the playoffs consistently and Brady and Manning won the MVP a combined three times in that five-year window.
In 2011 when Rodgers won MVP while posting the highest single-season passer rating in NFL history, his offensive line received middle-of-the-pack pass-blocking grades from PFF and his running game averaged just 3.9 yards per carry, ranking 28th.
If people figured that based on last year's ridiculous performance Foles could become the next Super Bowl-caliber quarterback in the mold of a Brady, Brees, Manning or Rodgers, these first five games have to be extremely discouraging. Because with that support system taking only a small step backward, he's been a fish out of water.
As Jeff McLane of The Philadelphia Inquirer points out, it's also possible Foles is hurt. He does have a bruised left shoulder, but he hasn't missed a single game or practice snap.
And again, Super Bowl-caliber quarterbacks play through pain all the time, and they usually do it better than Foles is right now.
We have to stop making excuses for him.
He hasn't had a lot of help on offense, but what's really scary is that Foles has received plenty of assistance elsewhere. The Eagles are 4-1 in spite of him and his offensive peers, and they could have been 5-0 had Foles and Co. been able to put together just a single touchdown drive in San Fran.
I mean, look at what they've done the last two weeks:
| 4 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Total | 22 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
The Eagles have scored seven touchdowns this season on special teams and defense. According to Elias (via PhillyMag.com's Sheil Kapadia) that's the most by any team through five games since 1970. In the last two weeks specifically, the special teams and defense have outscored the offense 35-20.
That is not sustainable.
So sure, Foles is 12-3 as an NFL starter. Problem is, this is a team game and that's a team stat. And you get the sense based on everything above that if Foles and his peers don't get it together quickly, the bottom's about to fall out on the Eagles.
As Marcus Hayes of the Philadelphia Daily News points out, we might have simply spent last season enjoying an extended honeymoon. It's possible our expectations were just too high:
"Last season was a mirage. Last season, he made bad reads, underthrew players, got lucky that passes were not intercepted, and had a deep threat in Jackson who not only was fast but who, thanks to otherworldly body control, also was superb at competing for big-play passes.
"
Should the Eagles panic and give backup Mark Sanchez a start? Of course not. But they certainly should be quietly concerned, as should the fans.
Five weeks is a small sample size, but if this team starts losing games—and at this rate, that'll inevitably begin to happen—more of us will begin to come to terms with the miserable idea that instead of being a Super Bowl-caliber quarterback, Nick Foles might be nothing more than a one-hit wonder.
The good news is the Eagles have survived the rough start on offense, and now Foles has a chance to redeem himself. Barring something unforeseen, this is his team for the 2014 season. He's got 11 games in order to prove that he's the man this franchise needs under center going forward.
The reality is that in this quarterback-dependent era, his rope probably doesn't extend far beyond that.
Brad Gagnon has covered the NFC East for Bleacher Report since 2012.
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