What Is Ricky Rubio Worth on His Next NBA Contract?
The inexact science of NBA talent evaluation becomes even more tricky when it comes to the fascinating and frustrating Ricky Rubio.
Rarely does the focus on the Minnesota Timberwolves point guard tighten to the point of dissecting the type of player he is. His examinations move the lens over to what he could be—or perhaps could have been—or, most often, what he clearly is not.
Given that the Wolves have from now until October 31 to ink him to a contract extension or risk him venturing out into the uncertain world of restricted free agency next offseason, those intangible measures will have tangible ramifications on the franchise and its future.
Guess right on Rubio's ceiling, and the Wolves will have either found a badly needed centerpiece or have avoided a crippling overpay. Guess wrong, and the team could once again see one of its stars shining elsewhere or, worse yet, wind up saddled by a debilitating albatross contract.
At the moment, Minnesota is trying to traverse the tightrope between the two extremes. The Wolves are hopeful of finding a future that includes Rubio, just not at a rate that could crush the organization if the floor general never really pans out.
With the way these negotiations have reportedly transpired, that is far easier said than done. Sporting News' Sean Deveney explained:
"Rubio has been after a five-year contract with the Timberwolves, and though he’d like that deal to be a max, there is no doubt Minnesota won’t go that high. In fact, while it has been reported that the two sides are far apart on a number, you can get a sense of just how far — league sources told Sporting News that the Timberwolves’ best offer thus far has been four years in the range of $48 million.
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That isn't a gap between the two sides, it's a canyon.
Yet, it's understandable for a player as polarizing as Rubio.
The basketball world has not been able to separate the legend of Rubio from the player it has seen over the past three seasons. Of course, once comparisons to Hall of Famer "Pistol" Pete Maravich are made, those aren't exactly easy to forget.
Especially when the player at the center of that buzz holds a forgettable three-year scoring average of 10.1 points and a frightening 36.8 field-goal percentage. (For the record, Maravich averaged 24.2 points on 44.1 percent shooting over his 10-year NBA career.)
Rubio isn't Maravich, or Steve Nash, or Magic Johnson or any of the other comparisons you may have heard. In fact, Rubio has fallen so woefully short of reaching those lofty expectations, it has warped his perception around the league.
That's our problem, not his, yet it continues to follow him at each step of his NBA journey.
"Maybe that's the entire problem: with Ricky Rubio, the fantasy has always been more fun," wrote Sports Illustrated's Jeremy Woo.
However, when Rubio's representatives ask for max money, they aren't begging the Wolves to pay for that fantasy. They are requesting what they feel their client is worth, and the numbers aren't nearly as egregious as they seem on the surface.
For starters, Rubio is a visionary passer. To fully appreciate his talent in that regard, one must understand that being a great passer means more than simply generating the most assists.
Not that Rubio is hurting in that category, though. He dropped 704 dimes last season, second only to Washington Wizards point guard John Wall (717). In addition, Rubio tossed out another 2.0 secondary (or "hockey") assists and another 1.4 free-throw assists, per NBA.com's SportVU player tracking data.
Again, though, numbers only tell part of the story. Setting up a scorer is one thing, but creating a scoring chance that wouldn't otherwise exist is quite another. With his vision, creativity and high basketball IQ, he is completely capable of doing the latter.
Rubio plays several steps ahead of the defense and never loses sight of his targets. There are, at most, a handful of NBA players who can make such a claim.
He's also a pesky defender and a top-shelf rebounder at his position. Since Rubio's arrival in 2011, only Los Angeles Clippers point god Chris Paul has a higher steals average (2.4 to 2.3). And, had Rubio played enough games to qualify, he would have ranked among the league's top five rebounding point guards in each of his three seasons.
His stat sheets are simply stuffed like few others.
"Rubio was one of two players in the NBA to average at least 9 points, 8 assists, 4 rebounds, and 2 steals in the 2013-14 season," CBS Sports' Zach Harper observed. "Chris Paul was the other."
If Rubio does so many things well, why are the Wolves hesitant to meet his contract request?
A lot of it has to do with the one thing he cannot do: score, which he does neither consistently nor efficiently.
"Rubio was also one of two players to play at least 2,600 minutes last season but shoot 38.1 percent or worse," Harper noted. "Brandon Jennings was the other."
Too often, Rubio's scoring woes are chalked up to the fact that he cannot shoot. That aforementioned unsightly field-goal percentage and an equally uninspiring career 32.3 three-point percentage seems to bolster that claim.
Only, it isn't that simple.
While he has problems shooting the basketball, they aren't the kind that most people think. Last season, he was more accurate on catch-and-shoot threes (35.1 percent) than Lance Stephenson (34.6), Jeff Teague (34.2) and Chris Bosh (34.2), per SportVU.
Granted, those players aren't quite marksmen in their own right, but they aren't scrutinized for their shooting like Rubio is. His field-goal percentage probably contributes to that, but the source of that problem isn't away from the basket—it's right underneath it.
As his 2013-14 shot chart shows below, courtesy of NBA.com, his struggles stemmed from an inability to finish plays around the rim.
That wasn't a new phenomenon, either. Since joining the league, he has converted just 43 percent of his field-goal attempts from within 10 feet of the basket.
That's an issue—a major one considering the type of contract he is after. Big enough, in fact, to keep the Wolves from ever approaching that price.
So, what type of deal should Minnesota feel comfortable with?
As with any economic discussion, there are multiple layers to that question.
Before the Wolves figure out what they want to bid, they have to identify who they could be bidding against. For now, the answer is no one, provided they can get something done before October 31.
Should this stretch over into next season, though, the market could change dramatically. There aren't many teams that figure to be shopping for point guards at that point, but the Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers could both have openings to fill.
Whether that adds to the urgency Minnesota feels depends on how deep the market grows at the position.
It could be well-stocked with players like Rajon Rondo and Jeremy Lin definitely headed there and Goran Dragic (player option for 2015-16) possibly joining them. It could be flooded if guys like Reggie Jackson, Brandon Knight and Kemba Walker don't reach agreements on their own extensions, although they, like Rubio, would be restricted free agents.
That isn't a ton of uncertainty, but it might be enough to push the Wolves toward getting something signed yet this year.
After losing perennial All-Star Kevin Love, Minnesota needs something to build around. And despite an intriguing influx of young talent, there are no guarantees that Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine or Anthony Bennett will ever live up to their potential.
Rubio could be a valuable centerpiece for the franchise. Not only does his skill set lend itself toward elevating the players around him, he also seems genuinely fond of his current digs.
"I'm loyal," he told Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski in September. "I want to give them back what they gave me there: a lot of love."
Considering the challenge of attracting external talent to the Gopher State, the Wolves will want to think twice before risking a valuable player seeking greener pastures elsewhere.
Despite his offensive limitations, Rubio made a tremendous impact on this team last season. The Wolves outscored opponents by 5.3 points per 100 possessions when he played and were outscored by 6.7 points per 100 possessions when he sat. That 12-point net differential was wider than even Love posted during his final year with the team (10.5).
Minnesota needs to pay to keep Rubio around. If he ever finds his scoring touch, he still has the chance to be a really special player.
But it has to back him down from that max-dollar demand. Frankly, it needs to keep that average annual salary of $12 million on the table, because that's as rich as his next contract should be.
That would give him the same yearly money that Ty Lawson and Kyle Lowry are collecting. It would even slot Rubio above Stephen Curry, who got a four-year, $44 million deal from the Golden State Warriors in 2012.
Admittedly, that's better company than Rubio's numbers say he should keep. But the 23-year-old still has time on his side, plus the rate could look infinitely better in light of the league's new TV deal, which Richard Sandomir of The New York Times first reported will be worth $24 billion over its nine-year life.
Keeping Rubio, at the right price, could play a pivotal role in the Timberwolves' future. As tricky as these negotiations can be, that portion of it seems pretty clear.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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