Complete Offseason Guide, Predictions for the Pittsburgh Pirates
Sadly, the 13th month on the calendar—Buctober—came to an end before it ever really had a chance to begin.
San Francisco Giants ace Madison Bumgarner had little trouble mowing down the Pittsburgh Pirates as they hosted their second consecutive NL Wild Card Game at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, bringing to an end another exciting but disappointing season of baseball in the Steel City.
That disappointment could last throughout the winter, as a number of key pieces of the roster could potentially depart via free agency, leaving the Pirates scrambling to find suitable replacements. Then again, things could work out in the team's favor, and fans could wind up pleasantly surprised with the results.
One thing is for sure: Changes are in store as the team looks to regroup and build upon its success of the past two seasons to position itself for a deeper playoff run in 2015 and beyond.
Let's take a look at what some of those changes could be as Pittsburgh begins its offseason far earlier than the team hoped it would.
Payroll Breakdown
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Despite operating with the highest payroll in franchise history and enjoying a boost in attendance for the fifth consecutive season (h/t ESPN), don't expect the Pirates to be breaking triple digits with their payroll anytime soon.
"We spend what we make," general manager Neal Huntington told Ron Cook of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. "Unfortunately, the attendance increase has not kept pace with the salary increases. It doesn't have as big an impact when you're talking multimillion dollars over multiple years. We need to allocate every dollar that we have and allocate it well. We love that our fans think with their hearts, but we have to continue to make logical, rational decisions."
The good news for the Pirates is that the dead weight of Wandy Rodriguez's contract—$7.5 million in 2014—comes off the team's books. That should give the club a bit more wiggle room to work with.
But with only four players signed for just over $23 million in 2015, the team is going to have to be frugal if it plans on staying close to its 2014 Opening Day payroll of $71 million as it fills out the roster.
Arbitration-Eligible Players
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Two of Pittsburgh's most valuable players not named Andrew McCutchen, along with its closer and some key members of the bullpen, are among the 11 who are due raises this coming winter.
On the table below, projected salaries are loosely based on what the player listed for comparison received, either as a one-year deal or through the arbitration process, at similar points in their careers. You can find the exact figures for those players by clicking on the links included.
| Pedro Alvarez | 3B | $4,250,000 | $5,200,000 | David Freese |
| John Axford | RP | $4,500,000 | Non-Tender Candidate | N/A |
| Ike Davis | 1B | $3,500,000 | Non-Tender Candidate | N/A |
| Jeanmar Gomez | RP | $514,500 | $875,000 | Al Alburquerque |
| Josh Harrison | UTIL | $513,000 | $2,750,000 | Martin Prado |
| Mark Melancon | RP | $2,595,000 | $3,750,000 | Drew Storen |
| Gaby Sanchez | 1B | $2,300,000 | $3,100,000 | Ike Davis |
| Travis Snider | 1B/OF | $1,200,000 | $2,300,000 | Logan Morrison |
| Chris Stewart | C | $1,000,000 | $2,000,000 | Ryan Hanigan |
| Neil Walker | 2B | $5,750,000 | $9,000,000 | Ian Desmond |
| Tony Watson | RP | $518,500 | $1,450,000 | Jake McGee |
| Vance Worley | SP | $527,500 | $1,500,000 | Brett Cecil |
| Totals | $22,918,500 | $26,725,000 |
Ideally, the Pirates would be able to work out team-friendly, long-term deals with Josh Harrison, Mark Melancon and the perennially underrated Neil Walker as they did with McCutchen before the 2012 season began.
That might be wishful thinking, however, as all three are coming off the best seasons of their respective careers and will look to cash in on their recent success.
Retaining the underwhelming first-base tandem of Ike Davis and Gaby Sanchez makes little sense for a team that, as Huntington recently told Cook, has "continuing challenges" at the position.
But the club figures to retain at least one half of that platoon if for no other reason than to provide insurance in case it can't find a suitable replacement over the winter. Sanchez is the cheaper option of the two.
Across the diamond, the team plans on bringing Alvarez back in 2015 despite a disappointing 2014 campaign. "It's hard to walk away from a guy who tied for the league lead in home runs [in 2013]," Huntington told Cook. "We still think Pedro's got a bright future. We've just got to work hard to get him back on track."
Players with Options and Pittsburgh's Free Agents
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What Pittsburgh's list of pending free agents lacks in quantity it makes up for in quality, with the team's two best starting pitchers, its starting catcher and a veteran infielder all set to hit the open market.
| Clint Barmes | SS | $2,000,000 | |
| Francisco Liriano | SP | $6,000,000 | |
| Russell Martin | C | $9,500,000 | |
| Edinson Volquez | SP | $5,000,000 |
Yes, losing even Clint Barmes, a .224 hitter in three seasons for the Pirates, would represent a blow. After all, Barmes has helped mold Jordy Mercer into the team's starting shortstop.
But it's the potential losses of Francisco Liriano, Russell Martin and Edinson Volquez that could be devastating to the team's future success.
The loss of Martin especially would be a crushing blow. The All-Star catcher has played a major role in the resurgence of Liriano, Volquez and a handful of pitchers who were once considered to be reclamation projects who have turned their careers around in Pittsburgh.
The Pirates don't have an internal option to replace him—Chris Stewart as the team's starting catcher doesn't work for anyone—and there's not another starting-caliber catcher available via free agency unless you believe Geovany Soto can stay healthy enough to catch 100-plus games a year.
While the Pirates plan on making a strong push to keep Martin in the fold, the team has limitations that other catcher-strapped clubs do not. "We're going to stretch. We're going to go beyond our comfort level and hope it's enough," Huntington told Cook.
Pittsburgh's biggest issue is this: It's become so good at taking those reclamation projects and turning them into quality major league players that it simply prices itself out of the market for their services once free agency hits.
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Potential Free-Agent Targets
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Pittsburgh is never going to be considered a major player in free agency, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. You can often get more bang for your buck with lesser-name players than you can the biggest names available.
With an eye toward value and the team's success in turning players around, here are four names that could be on Pittsburgh's radar this winter.
- Corey Hart, 1B/OF: Injuries once again limited the two-time All-Star in 2014, his first (and likely only) season in Seattle as he hit a woeful .203 with only 15 extra-base hits and a .590 OPS in 68 games. He can't play the outfield any longer, but a permanent move to first base could find his health (and production) improve dramatically.
- Colby Lewis, SP: Lewis didn't have a good year with Texas by any stretch of the imagination, pitching to a 5.18 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over 29 starts for the Rangers. But before injuries robbed him of the entire 2013 season, he had a nice three-year stretch (32-29, 3.93 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) and could bounce back under the Pirates' coaching staff.
- Justin Masterson, SP: If you want to talk about reclamation projects, is there another pitcher available who could use a bit of that Pirates magic more than Masterson? It was only two years ago that he was considered one of the better starters in the game. Could be a low-risk, high-reward addition.
- Mark Reynolds, 1B/3B: He doesn't hit for average, but coming off his seventh consecutive season with at least 20 home runs, he'd provide the Pirates with more production at first base than they've had in quite awhile. That he plays above-average defense at both corner infield positions is a bonus.
Potential Trade Targets
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As with many small-market clubs, it's often easier for the Pirates to improve the roster via trades than it is through free agency.
While trading inexpensive youngsters with years of team control ahead of them isn't an ideal scenario, it's sometimes the price that a team must pay if it wants to remain a contender, especially if it knows that its deeper-pocketed competition will be spending to improve their respective clubs.
That said, here are some names we could potentially see the Pirates attached to this winter.
- Francisco Cervelli or J.R. Murphy, C, New York Yankees: If Russell Martin departs via free agency, the Pirates are going to need to do something behind the plate. The Yankees have catching depth from which to deal. While Cervelli is injury-prone, he's solid defensively and can hold his own at the plate. Murphy is younger (23) and a well-rounded catcher, solid at the plate and behind it.
- Edwin Jackson, SP, Chicago Cubs: Chicago would have to pick up nearly all of the $22 million that's left on his deal, which runs through 2016, but the 12-year veteran had been a serviceable starter up until this season, when he pitched to a 6.33 ERA and 1.64 WHIP.
- Mark Trumbo, 1B/OF, Arizona Diamondbacks: Like the aforementioned Corey Hart, Mark Trumbo can't play the outfield and should be either a full-time first baseman or designated hitter. His power is legitimate, and a new regime in Arizona could look to move him this winter.
Unless otherwise noted/linked, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs; all payroll and salary information is courtesy of Cot's Contracts. All player comparisons link to Baseball Prospectus.
Want to talk Pittsburgh's offseason plans or anything baseball related? Hit me up on Twitter: @RickWeinerBR
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