Ranking the San Francisco Giants' Most Ideal 1st-Round Matchups
The San Francisco Giants have righted the ship and after a horrendous June and July, are once again playing good baseball. Home cooking has also been good for the Giants of late, as they have won 10 straight games at AT&T Park.
The Giants offense has come on strong after the All-Star break. Since that time, the Giants lead the National League in runs scored and batting average, at .280.
The Giants currently have a record of 82-65 and trail the Los Angeles Dodgers by one game in the NL West. With five games left to be played against the Dodgers, anything can happen.
Although manager Bruce Bochy also has his team leading the race for the top wild-card spot, the Giants would strongly prefer winning the division and not having to play the one-game wild-card contest.
If the Giants continue to play well and make the playoffs, there are several different scenarios as to who their first-round opponent might be. Much of the uncertainty revolves around whether the Giants win the NL West or are a wild-card team.
Let's take a closer look at all of the potential opponents the Giants could play in that first round. We will rank them in order of preference.
Player stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
Team stats courtesy of ESPN.go.com.
No. 1: Atlanta Braves
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The Atlanta Braves are the first choice. The Braves and Giants have met six times this season, with the Giants winning five of those games.
If the Giants play the Braves in the one-game wild card contest, Atlanta would ideally start Julio Teheran. He has had a very good year for Atlanta, but has only one postseason outing.
In that outing, Teheran started and pitched against the Dodgers. He allowed six earned runs in 2.2 innings and was charged with the loss.
The Braves do have some offensive punch with Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman and Evan Gattis. However, the Braves rank 14th in the 15 team National League in runs scored.
If the Giants were to win the NL West and finish with the best record in baseball and the Braves won their wild-card game, the two clubs would meet in the NLDS.
A big advantage the Giants have in that five-game series is with the depth of their starting pitching. With Madison Bumgarner, Tim Hudson and either Jake Peavy, Ryan Vogelsong or Yusmeiro Petit throwing, the edge is with San Francisco.
After Teheran, Atlanta would likely counter with Ervin Santana and either Aaron Harang, Mike Minor or Alex Wood.
One thing the Giants must avoid is trailing going into the ninth inning. Braves closer Craig Kimbrel is one of the best in the game. In 57 innings, he has allowed only 28 hits and 25 walks, while striking out 88. His ERA is 1.74, with a WHIP of 0.930.
Whether its a one-game wild-card situation or a five-game series, I believe it would be to the Giants' best advantage to play the Braves.
No. 2: Milwaukee Brewers
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The Milwaukee Brewers are a very dangerous team, with a high-powered offense. The Brewers lineup has power stacked from top to bottom with hitters like Carlos Gomez, Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez, Jonathan Lucroy and Khris Davis.
In the National League, the Brewers trail only Colorado and the Cubs in home runs. They will likely end the year with four players hitting more than 20 home runs, Davis, Gomez, Braun and Mark Reynolds. Moreover, Ramirez and Lucroy are two of the best hitters at their respective positions in the league.
In a one-game series, the Brewers would ideally start their ace, Wily Peralta. He is having a breakout season and leads the Brewers with a 16-10 record. In 177.2 innings of work, Peralta has allowed 183 hits and 56 walks, while striking out 134. His ERA is 3.75 and he has a WHIP of 1.345.
If Peralta is not available for a single-game playoff, the Brewers have other solid options with Yovani Gallardo, Kyle Lohse and Matt Garza. These four pitchers would also likely throw if the two teams met in a five-game series.
Playing in Milwaukee is also not an easy task. Miller Park is a live yard and the Brewers hit very well there.
The Giants do have an edge in the bullpen, and Brewers closer Francisco Rodriguez is not infallible. In 65 innings, Rodriguez has an ERA of 3.18, which is high for a closer.
No. 3: Pittsburgh Pirates
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If the season ended today, the Giants would play the Pirates in a one-game wild-card battle. Pittsburgh currently holds the second spot in the wild-card race and would travel to San Francisco.
During the regular season, the Pirates won four of six games against the Giants. However, in a one-game playoff, the Giants would ideally start their ace, Madison Bumgarner.
The decision on the starter for the Pirates is not as clear. Francisco Liriano or Gerrit Cole would most likely get the nod. With the Giants' tendency to have more trouble against left-handed pitching, it makes sense that Liriano would get the nod.
Liriano has a record of 5-10, but he has pitched better than his record would indicate. In 145.1 innings, Liriano has allowed 119 hits and 67 walks, while striking out 161. His ERA is 3.53 to go along with a WHIP of 1.281.
While it is more likely that the Giants would play the Pirates in the one-game match, there is a chance that they could meet in the NLDS. The Giants would need to win their division and finish with the best record in the NL and Pittsburgh would need to win its wild-card game for this scenario to occur.
In a five-game series, the Giants' starting pitching gives them a big edge. With Bumgarner, Tim Hudson, Jake Peavy and either Ryan Vogelsong or Yusmeiro Petit facing Liriano, Cole, Vance Worley and Edinson Volquez, the Giants would have to like their chances.
Offensively, the Pirates are led by Andrew McCutchen, who is having an MVP-caliber year. He is batting .311, with an OBP of .402 and OPS of .941. McCutchen has 23 home runs, 75 RBI and has stolen 17 bases.
Other Pirates having strong years include Josh Harrison, Neil Walker, Starling Marte and Russell Martin. The Pirates are actually third in total runs scored in the NL. By comparison, the Giants are fifth.
The Pirates played in this game last year and won it, advancing in the playoffs. They ultimately lost to the Cardinals in the NLDS, but this experience could prove invaluable for a young Pittsburgh squad.
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No. 4: St. Louis Cardinals
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The St. Louis Cardinals would be a formidable opponent whether they played the Giants in a one-game playoff or a five-game series.
The Cardinals' pitching staff can match the Giants'. Adam Wainwright is their ace, and deservedly so. He and San Francisco ace Madison Bumgarner have identical 18-9 records.
Wainwright has thrown 203 innings, allowed 174 hits and 47 walks, while striking out 164. His ERA is a stellar 2.56, as is his WHIP of 1.047.
In addition to Wainwright, the Cardinals can also come at the Giants with Lance Lynn, John Lackey and either Michael Wacha or Shelby Miller. The Cardinals also have a strong bullpen, led by closer Tyler Rosenthal.
The Cardinals received a boost with the return of six-time All-Star catcher Yadier Molina. In addition to Molina, the offense is led by Matt Holliday, Matt Adams, Jhonny Peralta and Matt Carpenter.
This season, the Giants took four of the seven meetings between the two teams.
The last time these two teams met in the playoffs, there were fireworks. The Giants and Cardinals played a hard-fought NLCS in 2012, with the Giants winning four games to three. The battle intensified when Holliday steamrolled Giants second baseman Marco Scutaro on a controversial play.
Scutaro and the Giants got the last laugh, however, as Scutaro hit .500 with an 1.140 OPS and was named the series MVP.
If these two teams meet again, look for another spirited confrontation between two hard-nosed teams.
No. 5: Los Angeles Dodgers
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On the East Coast, the predominant baseball rivalry is the Yankees and the Red Sox. Neither of those teams will make the playoffs.
On the West Coast, the most intense rivalry is between the Giants and Dodgers. This rivalry goes back to the years long before the two clubs moved west. The New York Giants and Brooklyn Dodgers had their battles, and that intensity has moved to California.
In order for the Giants to meet the Dodgers in their first playoff series, they must win the NL West and have the best record in the league. The Dodgers would then need to win the one-game wild-card contest.
If this scenario unfolded, the Dodgers would come to San Francisco for the Giants' first playoff series.
These two teams know each other very well, and that familiarity breeds contempt. On paper, the edge would seem to go to the Dodgers and their $230 million payroll (salary data courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts). However, as we all know, baseball is not played on paper.
The Giants do not fear the Dodgers and will stand toe-to-toe with them. In addition, Giants manager Bruce Bochy can get the best of Don Mattingly. He has done it before and if he does it again, it could mean Mattingly's job.
The Dodgers have three outstanding starting pitchers with Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Hyun-Jin Ryu. If needed, the fourth starter would be either Dan Haren or Roberto Hernandez.
The Giants could have an advantage if they can get into the Los Angeles bullpen early. Closer Kenley Jansen is good, but not automatic. In addition, the pitchers before Jansen could be vulnerable.
Offensively, the Dodgers have the dynamic Yasiel Puig, although he has tailed off recently. The rest of the offense reads like a group of All-Stars. Adrian Gonzalez, Dee Gordon, Hanley Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Carl Crawford, Juan Uribe and Andre Ethier.
However, the San Francisco pitchers know how to pitch the Dodger hitters and have had success in the past. With five more games remaining in the regular season between these two teams, expect to see some fireworks.
If these two squads meet in the postseason, the state of California will be rocking and hopefully, it won't be from an earthquake.
No. 6: Washington Nationals
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Matt Williams, a former star with the Giants is in his first season as the manager of the Washington Nationals. His no-nonsense approach has helped transform this team into one of the best in baseball. The Nationals and Dodgers are currently tied for the best record in the National League.
The way the playoff seeds are mapped out, it would be extremely difficult for the Giants to end up playing Washington in a first-round series or one-game wild-card game.
However, if it somehow did occur, this is a series that would be very tough on the Giants. I will breakdown the matchup in any case, as it is possible these two clubs could meet later in the playoffs.
Washington's starting pitching is excellent from top to bottom. They have five very strong starting pitchers, led by Stephen Strasburg, who leads the league with 223 strikeouts. Strasburg is at a career high in innings pitched, which could ultimately haunt him as he pitches deeper into the postseason.
Behind Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman, Doug Fister, Gio Gonzalez and Tanner Roark are all qualified to start a postseason game. None of the Washington starters has an ERA over 4.00 and three of them, Zimmerman, Fister and Roark, are all below 3.00.
The Nationals bullpen is good, but has at times faltered. Rafael Soriano has been the closer (though Drew Storen has taken over lately) and leads all National League closers with seven blown saves (data courtesy of sportingcharts.com).
Relievers Tyler Clippard, Storen, Matt Thornton and Craig Stammen typically give the Nationals solid work out of the bullpen.
Offensively, the Nationals have speed and power. They are second in the league in runs scored, trailing only Colorado, which plays half its games at Coors Field.
The Washington offense is led by Jayson Werth, Denard Span, Ian Desmond, Bryce Harper and Adam LaRoche. Anthony Rendon has taken over at third base due to the injury to Ryan Zimmerman and is rapidly becoming a star.
If Zimmerman makes it back for the postseason, Rendon will move over to second base.
The Giants have struggled against the Nationals this year, losing five of seven games.
In their five losses, Giants pitchers have allowed 36 runs. If these two teams meet in the playoffs, the Giants pitching must be able to contain the Washington offense a lot more effectively.
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