Jets vs. Packers: Breaking Down New York's Game Plan
As relieved as Rex Ryan's New York Jets are to get out of Week 1 with a victory, a greater challenge is coming in Week 2.
Ryan's squad is coming off a sloppy yet convincing win over the feeble Oakland Raiders. Despite their 11 penalties, there is plenty of reason to be optimistic about the Jets' win. Geno Smith continued to show signs of improvement, and the maligned secondary gave up just 152 yards through the air.
The Green Bay Packers, however, are a totally different animal. Coming off a bruising loss to the defending champion Seattle Seahawks, Aaron Rodgers and Co. are salivating to play against a defense that is not loaded with star power at seemingly every position like Seattle is.
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Odds are that a game played against Aaron Rodgers will be a losing affair, but the Jets have several matchup advantages that they can exploit to pull off the upset. Here is a game plan the Jets should follow to put together their second straight win of the season.
Let the Defensive Front Work
Last week, the Jets were very aggressive in their approach to stopping a rookie quarterback. An inexperienced rookie like Derek Carr is going to react to a jailbreak blitz much differently than a Super Bowl-winning veteran like Aaron Rodgers.
If Rex Ryan tries to mimic his game plan from last week and come after Aaron Rodgers with everything he has hidden in his sweater vest, an elite, veteran player like Rodgers is going to burn him every time.
As thin as the Jets are in the back end, the front seven of their defense is twice as dense. The Jets have invested a lot of high picks along defensive line over the years—including first-rounders on Muhammad Wilkerson, Quinton Coples and Sheldon Richardson in consecutive years—and need to see a return on their investment.
Rex Ryan is one of, if not the best, blitz artists in the game, but the Jets' defense is no longer built from the secondary in as it was in Ryan's earlier days as head coach. The Jets will need to save as many bodies to help in coverage, leaning on their heavy matchup advantages up front against a Packers offensive line that has already sustained significant injuries.
Right tackle Bryan Bulaga is back to practicing as he recovers from an MCL tear, but there is no way he will enter the game in optimal form, according to Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:
Based on Derek Sherrod's lackluster performance in Bulaga's place against the Seattle Seahawks last week (giving up two sacks and two hurries, according to Pro Football Focus), the Packers are biting their nails on news of Bulaga's status.
The Packers' offensive line issues don't stop with Bulaga. Even the usually stout T.J. Lang is coming off a poor game, grading out poorly in the running game by Pro Football Focus.
Assuming Bulaga does play, the Jets need to test his ability against the top pass-rushers on the Jets until he proves he can hold off the likes of Wilkerson, Richardson, Coples and edge-rusher Jason Babin. MCL injuries limit the amount of pressure one can put on the knee, limiting Bulaga's movement, which makes a speed rusher like Babin particularly effective in this situation.
Use the Tight Ends
One of the best feats of general manager John Idzik's offense has been how he has managed to turn what was one of the weakest parts of the Jets roster, tight end, into somewhat of a strength.
When healthy, Jeff Cumberland has proven the ability to generate timely big plays. Meanwhile, rookie second-round pick Jace Amaro filled in nicely in the preseason by leading the team in receiving.
The Packers present a particularly fertile atmosphere for these two young pass-catching tight ends to have big afternoons, starting with the fact that the Packers' linebackers are not strong in coverage.
| Morgan Burnett | 3 | 3 | 58 | 158.3 |
| A.J. Hawk | 3 | 3 | 14 | 86.1 |
| Brad Jones | 2 | 2 | 23 | 114.6 |
Meanwhile, the cornerback positions have been much more effective in coverage, limiting the amount of opportunities the Jets will have to involve Eric Decker and Jeremy Kerley into the game.
| Tramon Williams | 5 | 3 | 16 | 65.4 |
| Sam Shields | 4 | 2 | 38 | 122.9 |
If the Jets can get these two tight ends to get involved early in the game, it could draw enough attention from safeties Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Micah Hyde to the point where they have to leave their cornerbacks on islands, cuing Geno Smith to start taking his outside shots.
How does one get both tight ends involved early in the game? Easy—save some time by playing them both at once, just as they did on this five-yard reception to Jace Amaro.
The more tight ends are in the game, the greater the chance of the Jets drawing coverage from an inferior linebacker. If offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg is consistent with his tight end dosage, a big play from either player is bound to occur at some point.
Place Antonio Allen on Jordy Nelson
Antonio Allen has only been playing cornerback for several weeks now, and it may seem like a suicidal tactic to have him cover the Packers' top receiver. For the Jets, however, using the former safety to cover the 6'3" receiver is their best option.
After allowing just one catch against A.J. Green in his cornerback debut during the preseason, Allen has flashed the ability to cover bigger, more powerful receivers—a skill he gained last year when blanketing the likes of Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski.
Allen, however, has yet to face a quarterback of Rodgers' caliber outside of his natural safety position—he will soon learn the frustration involved in defending Rodgers' signature, indefensible back-shoulder fades.
Still, while Allen is by far the Jets' best option to defend a big, physical receiver like Nelson, he is far from the ideal solution to shutting down Green Bay's best receiver.
Assuming Ryan calls a responsible game from a defensive standpoint, Allen should get plenty of safety help to deal with the deadly combination of Nelson and Rodgers. As long as Allen can hold his own and prevent Nelson from having a breakout game, the Jets will be able to focus their resources on stopping the rest of the dynamic Packer offense.
Obviously, the Jets are at a clear disadvantage in this game because of the difference in quarterback play. While improving, Smith has a long way to go before he resembles Rodgers in the slightest. The Jets are going to have to win this game elsewhere on the field.
The good news for the Jets is that outside of the gap in quarterback play, the two rosters are very comparable in terms of overall talent level. If the Jets maximize the advantages they have on both sides of the ball, they stand a more than reasonable chance to get to an unlikely 2-0 mark.
Advanced statistics provided by ProFootballFocus.com (subscription required).
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