Tim Tebow: Game-by-Game Predictions for Jets' Backup QB

In perhaps the most surprising transaction of the offseason, New York Jets general manager Mike Tannenbaum traded a fourth-round draft choice for former Denver Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow. As with anything involving Tebow, the move sparked an intense, passionate debate on whether he was brought in as a stunt to garner media attention, or to be a contributing member of the roster.

Although Tebow will undoubtedly bring a new dimension to a Jets offense that was stagnant for most of 2011, there are a few things to account for while predicting the impact that he will have this upcoming season.

First, it's important to remember that the Jets have significantly more invested in Mark Sanchez than they do in Tebow. In the 2009 NFL draft, the Jets traded up to select Sanchez with the fifth overall pick. In both of his first two seasons, Sanchez led Gang Green to the AFC Championship Game, where the team narrowly lost both times.

While some say Sanchez regressed in 2011, he had his best statistical season of his young career. Furthermore, he did so with the worst offensive line that he has ever played with.

In short, not only has Sanchez proven he can be successful in the NFL, he is still developing as a quarterback. As long as the Jets believe Sanchez has not hit his ceiling, the team's No. 1 priority will be helping him fulfill his potential, not developing Tebow into a starter.

Second, barring an injury to Sanchez, Tebow is a backup quarterback. He will be used in a limited number of specialized offensive plays, most likely in short-yardage situations and possibly near the goal line. While we may see a respectable number of rushing touchdowns from him, his skill set, along with the limited amount of action he is expected to see, will surely limit his statistical production in 2012.

Without further ado, here are my game-by-game predictions for Tebow during the upcoming season.

Week 1: Jets vs. Buffalo Bills

From a Jets perspective, the first game will be more about getting Mark Sanchez familiar with new offensive coordinator Tony Sparano's offense than it will be about integrating Tim Tebow into game situations. While we will almost definitely see Tebow in some limited action, don't expect it to be significant.

Furthermore, with the addition of Mario Williams, the Buffalo Bills defense will be improved in 2012. With such an impressive front seven, look for the Jets to use a variety of play-action passes to slow down the pass rush. 

Mark Sanchez has thrived on play-action passes throughout his career, and his superior arm strength and accuracy make him a better option than Tebow in those situations. However, if the Jets get into a goal-line situation, they more than likely may try to get Tebow into the game. A rushing touchdown in the first game would go a long way not only for his confidence, but to substantiate the team's decision to acquire him.

Prediction:

Passing: 1-3, 7 Yards, 0 TD, 0 INT

Rushing: 4 Attempts, 17 Yards, 1 TD

Week 2: Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers

Although the Pittsburgh Steelers notoriously possess one of the most formidable defenses in the NFL, Tim Tebow threw for 316 yards and two touchdowns while leading the Broncos to an improbable 29-23 victory during the wild-card round of the playoffs last season. He has proven his ability to have success against them. 

While we will still see Mark Sanchez take a vast majority of the snaps, Tebow's previous history against the Steelers could merit some increased playing time.

That being said, as we saw last season, Pittsburgh will not hesitate to stack the box with eight players while Tebow is in the game. They will make it extremely difficult for him to gain much yardage on the ground. If Tebow is to have any success in Week 2, it will most likely come through the air.

Prediction:

Passing: 4-8, 26 Yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, sacked once

Rushing: 4 Attempts, 10.5 yards, 0 TD

Week 3: Jets at Miami Dolphins

Although the Miami Dolphins started out winless through their first seven contests last season, they finished their final nine games with a respectable 6-3 record, including a Week 17 victory over the Jets. The Dolphins improved defensive effort was a significant factor in their late-season success.

The strength of the Dolphins defense lies with their front-seven. With their transition to a 4-3 scheme in 2012, former nose tackle Paul Soliai will shift to defensive tackle with Randy Starks, who is one of the most powerful interior defensive linemen in the NFL.

With Karlos Dansby and Kevin Burnett highlighting the linebacker core, the Dolphins defense will be a formidable matchup for any team. However, there is uncertainty in the secondary, which is where the Jets will most likely attack.

Because Miami's defensive strengths are up front, the Jets will most likely attempt to win this game through the air. For any quarterback to be successful through the air, a consistent rhythm must be established. Using Tim Tebow in any significant capacity could seriously inhibit Mark Sanchez' ability to get into the flow of the game.

Furthermore, Tebow had a lackluster performance against Miami in 2011. He completed less than 50 percent of his passes, while being sacked six times. The Broncos ultimately won the game, but it was more in spite of Tebow rather than because of him.

Predictions:

Passing: 1-3, 5 Yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, sacked once

Rushing: 3 Attempts, 11 yards, 1 TD

Week 4: Jets vs. San Francisco 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers have more talent on both sides of the ball than the Jets. To go even further, it would be fair to say that the Jets are merely just a watered-down version of the 49ers.

Both teams employ run-first, pass-second offenses that rely heavily upon stellar defensive play to stay competitive with the league's elite, pass-heavy teams. However, on paper, the 49ers outmatch the Jets at almost every position.

Last season, the 49ers boasted the NFL's top defense against the run, allowing a mere 77.2 rushing yards per game for an average of 3.5 yards per carry. The Jets ranked 22nd in rushing, while averaging only 3.8 yards per carry.

With both teams returning the vast majority of their players from last season, the Jets are not talented enough to run the ball on the 49ers, nor are they built to win any game by relying solely on the pass. If things don't go well early for Gang Green, look for Tim Tebow to see a significant number of snaps. His option-style offense could catch the 49ers off guard, which may be the Jets only chance to hang with one of the NFC's elite.

Prediction:

Passing: 10- 20, 96 Yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, sacked twice

Rushing: 10 Attempts, 37 yards, 0 TD

Week 5: Jets vs. Houston Texans

Similar to the 49ers, the Houston Texans improved vastly on the defensive side of the ball in 2012. Despite the loss of Mario Williams, the Texans remain stacked up front with J.J. Watt, Antonio Smith, Connor Barwin, and Brian Cushing highlighting the front seven. Furthermore, Houston was ranked third in pass defense and fourth in rush defense last season.

For the Jets to attain success against the Texans defense, they are going to have to rely on play-action passes. If the Jets defense can keep the game close and the offense can obtain some sort of balance, this game could become a dogfight. 

However, this could be a contest in which if the Jets offense sputters during the first half, so we could see Tim Tebow come on late. While he's not more talented than Sanchez, Tebow allows the Jets to change their offensive game plan when it becomes ineffective. Therefore, Tebow is more likely to see his most significant playing time in games such as this, when the Jets are severely outmatched (at least on paper) and need a spark on offense.

Predictions:

Passing: 8-15, 63 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT, sacked once

Rushing: 5 Attempts, 17 Yards, 0 TD

Week 6: Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts

Although I've predicted an increased role for Tim Tebow the past two games, remember that Mark Sanchez is still the Jets starting quarterback. The Jets offense is built around Sanchez, and he gives the team the best chance to win week in and week out.

With the Indianapolis Colts going through a massive rebuilding phase, the Jets will more than likely stick with Sanchez for the vast majority of this game. The Colts represent the perfect game for the Jets to let Sanchez loose and have some success through the air. After a predictably two tough games against the 49ers and Texans, "The Sanchize" will more than likely be in need of a confidence boost.

Don't look for Tebow to have a big impact. If the Jets are going to have any chance of advancing through the playoffs, Sanchez must be playing his best football. He will not be able to do that if the team is constantly taking him out of games.

It's more than likely that Tebow reverts back into a complementary role for this contest. However, Tony Sparano will probably use him around the goal line just to keep him somewhat involved and confident as well.

Predictions:

Passing: 0-2, 0 Yards, 0 TD, 0 INT

Rushing: 4 Attempts, 15 Yards, 1 TD

Week 7: Jets at New England Patriots

Tim Tebow has some significant experience playing the Patriots in Foxboro. Last season, the Denver Broncos took two trips to New England, including in the AFC Divisional Game. However, they lost handedly on both occasions.

In fact, in the playoffs, Tim Tebow proved to be completely ineffective against a statistically weak Patriots defense. When it counted most, Tebow came up short, posting a completion percentage of just 34, while averaging just above five yards per completion. Coincidentally, that was the last game Tebow played for Denver.

For the Jets to beat the Patriots on their home turf, it will be imperative for Mark Sanchez to be effective through the air. If the Jets defense can keep the game close, Sanchez will have opportunities to win the game for Gang Green against a weak defense.

With Tebow having twice proven incapable of playing well against New England, look for Sanchez to play the entire game. The Jets did not give him a raise in the offseason to bench him on the road against their biggest divisional rival.

Predictions:

Passing: 0-0, 0 Yards, 0 TD, 0 INT

Rushing: 0 Attempts, 0 Yards, 0 TD

Week 8: Jets vs. Miami Dolphins

Although uncertainty in the Miami defensive backfield would suggest that Mark Sanchez gets the call to put the ball in the air for the majority of the game, the Jets may try to shake things up the second time around against their divisional rival.

Assuming Gang Green has success moving the ball down the field with Sanchez in the Week 3 matchup, the Dolphins will undoubtedly prepare for that in the week leading up to the rematch.

By putting Tim Tebow on the field early and often, Miami will scramble to adjust its game plan. If it works, then maybe the Jets let Tebow play. But at the very least, the Jets will be able to keep the Dolphins guessing for the duration of the game. 

That being said, look for Sanchez to still carry the load. But don't rule out a few more Tebow sightings than usual.

Predictions:

Passing: 5-8, 41Yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, sacked once

Rushing: 8 Attempts, 34 Yards, 0 TD

Week 10: Jets at Seattle Seahawks

In 2011, the Seattle Seahawks defense ranked 11th against the pass and 15th against the run. While the Seahawks defensive talent is far from overwhelming, the Jets are not going to be able to win this game with any one aspect of their offense. Rather, it is going to take a well balanced effort to consistently move the ball down the field.

Once again, Mark Sanchez will get the call to carry the reigns for the overwhelming majority of the game.

To further justify this claim, it's important to realize that CenturyLink Field is perhaps the loudest stadium in the NFL. Most opposing offenses are forced to run many plays on a silent count, which requires a serious amount of trust and continuity between the quarterback and the offensive line. It would be extremely difficult to execute an effective offense in this particular venue if the Jets decide to play two different quarterbacks at separate times throughout the contest.

The balanced Seattle defense, along with playing in the NFL's loudest stadium, will make it extremely unlikely that Tebow sees any significant playing time. If anything, there may be a few plays run out of the Wildcat formation just to keep the Seahawks honest.

Predictions:

Passing: 0-1, 0 Yards, 0 TD, 0 INT

Rushing: 3 Attempts, 10 Yards, 0 TD, 

Week 11: Jets at St. Louis Rams

Statistically, the Rams had one of the worst defenses last season, and there is no reason to believe that is going to change any time soon. While it would seem logical that allowing Tim Tebow to get some playing time against a bottom-dwelling team would be beneficial, the reality is that the Jets need Mark Sanchez playing his best football down the final stretch of the season.

Although Tebow brings an added dimension to the Jets offense, it wont be necessary for a Jets victory against St Louis. Look for the Jets to let Sanchez loose and once again give him a confidence boost. There's a good chance he's going to need it considering Gang Green's opponent in Week 12.

Predictions:

Passing: 0-0, 0 Yards, 0 TD, 0 INT

Rushing: 3 Attempts, 11 Yards, 0 TD

Week 12: Jets vs. Patriots

The Jets home game against the Patriots is almost always considered a must win if Gang Green has any chance to win the AFC East. In 2011, the Patriots defense gave up an average of almost 294 yards per game in the air, which was the second-highest total in the league. 

The Jets are more than capable of winning this game, but to do so it's going to take long, consistent drives that eat up significant chunks of time.

However, this must be done while still attacking the Patriots' weak air defense. There must be a meticulous balancing act that will require a series of rushing plays, followed by short play-action passes over the middle of the field. Not only does this put Mark Sanchez in a position to succeed, it keeps the ball out of Tom Brady's hands.

However, Tim Tebow is also effective in these packages as well. After being benched for the entirety of the team's Week 7 matchup, look for the Jets to throw Tebow out there for some limited action. His presence could catch the Patriots off guard and allow for a few cheap big gains.

Predictions:

Passing: 3-5, 33 Yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, sacked once

Rushing: 4 Attempts, 26 Yards, 1 TD

Week 13: Jets vs. Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals ranked in the bottom half of the league in both rushing and pass defense in 2011. The Jets should be able to run the ball effectively at home against the Cardinals, which could very well include a few plays for Tim Tebow out of Wildcat formations.

Tebow is more athletic than any other NFL quarterback, save Michael Vick of the Philadelphia Eagles. Against a subpar rush defense, Tebow should be able to have a relatively productive day.

Look for Tony Sparano to utilize him for about 12 plays, mostly on option plays out of the Wildcat.

Predictions:

Passing: 1-2, 8 Yards, 0 TD, 0 INT

Rushing: 10 Attempts, 52 Yards, 0 TD

Week 14: Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 14 starts the easiest portion of the Jets 2012 schedule. With Gang Green slated to take on four consecutive teams that failed to make the playoffs in 2011, look for offensive coordinator Tony Sparano to solidify Tim Tebow's role within the offense. 

It's imperative to keep Tebow involved to keep the Jets' offense from going stagnant, while still allowing Mark Sanchez to develop a consistent rhythm and overall feel for the game. Ideally, this would mean Tebow seeing anywhere between seven and 12 snaps spread throughout the course of the game.

Even on the road, the Jets should take care of business against a Jacksonville team that has no solid option at quarterback. This will be a good opportunity for Tebow to improve in a relatively low-pressure environment.

Predictions:

Passing: 2-5, 24 Yards, 0 TD, 0 INT

Rushing: 5 Attempts, 24 Yards, 1 TD

Week 15: Jets at Tennessee Titans

Although the Tennessee Titans were abysmal against the run in 2011, they were actually slightly above average in pass defense.

While they did not make the playoffs, the Titans still had nine wins last year. In short, they are no pushover, especially because the Jets play them on the road. If Shonn Greene can get going on the ground, Mark Sanchez should have some success throwing the ball over the middle of the field, particularly to Dustin Keller and Santonio Holmes.

Once again, look for Tim Tebow to get around 12 snaps. He should be able to get some open rushing lanes against the Titans' lackluster rush defense. Furthermore, his option schemes could be effective in short bursts if Tennessee still struggles against the run.

Predictions:

Passing: 3-5, 16 Yards, 1 TD, 0 INT

Rushing: 7 Attempts, 34 Yards, 0 TD

Week 16: Jets vs. San Diego Chargers

The San Diego Chargers had an immensely disappointing campaign in 2012. In almost every aspect of the game, the Thunderbolts defense seemed to lack the energy, firepower, consistency and even desire to compete at the highest level.

However, with the addition of rookies Melvin Ingram (OLB) and Kendall Reyes (DT), along with the continued development of Antuan Barnes and Jonas Moulton, the Chargers could see a resurgence on the defensive side of the ball in 2012.

If the Chargers' linebacker core plays up to its capability, the Jets will have some issues running the football. This is when Mark Sanchez will get the green light to start airing it out, which is usually when Gang Green gets into trouble.

Look for Tim Tebow to see a very limited amount of action in this game. If the run game isn't there and the Jets fall behind early, it's going to be difficult to find an opportune time to call a play out of the Wildcat formation.

Predictions:

Passing: 0-2, 0 Yards, 0 TD, 0 INT

Rushing: 3 Attempts, 13.5 Yards, 0 TD

Week 17: Jets vs. Buffalo Bills

With the Jets relatively easy schedule, they should have a playoff spot wrapped up by this point in the season. This Jets team is not as talented as the squads that made it to the AFC title games in 2009 and 2010. Unlike those teams, this group has some serious questions to answer on the offensive line and even quarterback.

However, in 2012, the Jets only play five games against teams that made the playoffs last season. Furthermore, three of those five games are at home. Their path to the postseason was paved the second the schedule was released.

All things considered, Tim Tebow will probably see a majority of the action in this game. With the Jets more than likely electing to rest Mark Sanchez after a series or two, Tebow should have his best statistical game of the season.

Prediction:

Passing: 20-33, 178 Yards, 2 TD, 1 INT

Rushing: 11 Attempts, 49 Yards, 0 TD

Final Stat Predictions for Tim Tebow's 2012 Season

Predicted End of Season Statistics

Passing: 58/112 (51.7 completion percentage), 497 Yards, 4 TD, 3 INT, QB Rating of 64.5

Rushing: 84 Attempts, 362 Yards (4.3 yards per carry), 5 TD

Analysis

Although the numbers do not quite match up to Tim Tebow's 2011 statistics, it's important to remember that he is no longer a starting quarterback. While his skill set may allow his team to enjoy a mild level of success in the short term, it does not allow for consistent competition with the league's elite passing offenses.

Teams that have made deep runs into the playoffs recently, such as the New York Giants, Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots, and New Orleans Saints, all have strong-armed quarterbacks who throw the ball with seemingly pinpoint accuracy down the field to big, athletic wide receivers. Although Mark Sanchez has not proven that he fits that description, he is closer to it than Tebow.

However, that is not to say that Tebow is not a valuable asset. His ability to bring a whole different dynamic to an offense is effective just in itself. No matter what, opposing defenses are going to have to prepare for two completely different styles of play while scouting the Jets. This will help open up the field for an offense that has had issues in the past.

Furthermore, Tebow will likely have the most productive season of any backup quarterback in the NFL. He will have opportunities to prove himself and earn more playing time as warranted.

However, it would be unfair to expect him to replicate the heroic fourth-quarter comebacks that we witnessed in 2011. It would be unfair to expect him to put up comparable statistics to last season. And lastly, it would be unfair to expect him to play anything more than a complementary role within the Jets offense.