How Miami Heat's 2012-13 Schedule Impacts Championship Odds

The NBA officially released its 2012-13 schedule on July 26, revealing that defending champion Miami Heat would open the season on October 30 against the Boston Celtics.

That matchup will pit the two teams responsible for a classic seven-game series in the Eastern Conference Finals this past season, as well as mark Ray Allen's opening night on the opposite side of this rivalry.

But the Heat have far more important things to worry about than one opening night contest. The team is laser-focused on repeating as champions, making the 82-game regular season nothing but a tune-up for Miami.

So how does the Heat regular season schedule impact their championship odds? Read through for a breakdown of the team's schedule.

The Opening Night Rematch vs. Boston

Miami begins their reign as NBA champions against the new-look Boston Celtics at home on October 30.

This game will mark new Heat guard Ray Allen's first game against the franchise where he spent the past five seasons and spurned this offseason in free agency.

While it would have been easy for the Celtics to pack up shop from the Big Three era and start rebuilding, the Celtics will come back reloaded and possibly better than last season's squad.

In Allen's place are six new players, including shooting guards Jason Terry and Courtney Lee. With incumbent Avery Bradley likely taking over starting duties, that gives the Celtics the best stable of shooting guards in the league. And considering Bradley and Lee's defensive prowess, the Celtics could negate Allen's presence altogether.

But given that this is only an opening-night contest, this matchup will simply serve as a barometer for Miami to gauge the toughness of their in-conference defense.

The Tough Opening 10 Games

Boston won't be Miami's only early season challenge as the Heat plays seven of their first 10 games against 2012 playoff teams.

Five of those seven games will be on the road, including a November 2 showdown in Madison Square Garden against the New York Knicks.

The Heat will also get an early season look at the Memphis Grizzlies and Los Angeles Clippers, two teams that hope to make a deep run in the Western Conference.

Memphis lost star sixth man O.J. Mayo to the Dallas Mavericks this offseason, but still boasts one of the most complete and deep teams in the NBA.

The Clippers' Blake Griffin should be fully recovered from a torn meniscus by the team's November 14 matchup in L.A. The team has made a concerted effort to bolster their bench this offseason.

If Miami can walk out of these 10 games at either 7-3 or 8-2, the NBA world could be in for a regular season drubbing.

The Christmas Day Rematch vs. Oklahoma City

All the tough games in the first two months of the season will simply serve as foreplay for Miami's Christmas Day NBA Finals rematch against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Christmas has become the NBA's equal to the NFL's Thanksgiving, so waiting for the teams' first matchup was no coincidence.

With all four members of Oklahoma City's core in London for the Summer Olympics, next season's Thunder should come back far more ready than last year's bunch.

Christmas Day will show where both teams are both physically and mentally a third of the way through the season. In the Hype Game's very short history, one of the two participants usually comes into this game struggling, so it will be interesting to see if both teams are at peak performance come December.

The 5-Game February Test

After Miami's Christmas Day matchup with the Thunder, their schedule gets a little breezy until a difficult five-game stretch from February 8 through 20.

That stretch begins with both Los Angeles teams visiting the American Airlines Arena, continues with another home matchup with the Portland Trail Blazers on February 12, and culminates with two road trysts with Oklahoma City and the Atlanta Hawks.

Those five games will lead into and stretch past the NBA All-Star break, giving the Heat consistent tests before the NBA trade deadline. If Miami struggles through these five games, they could try to bring in a cheap secondary piece for the stretch run.

But if Miami wins all five contests or loses just once, they will likely head into the stretch run with massive levels of confidence.

The Breezy Final 20 Games

The reason for Miami to be confident, if the team is successful in the aforementioned five-game stretch, is that the last quarter of their season is a cakewalk.

Of the Heat's final 20 games, only 10 come against last season's playoff teams.

And of those 10 playoff contests, most come against weakened versions of their 2011-12 counterparts.

By late March, the Bulls will have folded their season or just have welcomed Derrick Rose to the lineup when they play Miami. Barring some massive mental catastrophe, Orlando will assuredly rid themselves of Dwight Howard by that point. And the Sixers are just plain worse.

That constitutes six of the 10 games Miami plays against playoff teams in their last 20 games, leaving only four opponents—Boston twice, San Antonio, and New York— with any chance of an extended playoff run.

So even if the Heat fail in all of their early season tests, there will probably be no hotter team in the NBA come the 2013 playoffs. And for Miami, these 20 games could be the difference between a repeat and a massive letdown.