Odds Anthony Davis Carries Hornets to NBA Playoffs and Wins Rookie of the Year

Elgin Baylor. Lew Alcindor/Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. David Robinson. Chris Webber. Tim Duncan. Derrick Rose.

What do these six men have in common, other than distinction as world-class basketball players and NBA superstars in their respective hay days?

They're also the only six players in league history to be named Rookie of the Year and lead their teams to the playoffs in the same season.

Like any presumptive No. 1 pick worth his salt, Anthony Davis will look to join this rather exclusive club once he's officially introduced as the cornerstone of the future for the New Orleans Hornets at the 2012 NBA Draft on Thursday.

That'll be no easy task, considering both Davis' historical odds of pulling off such a double and the dubious state in which the Hornets currently find themselves.

Consider, first, that 63 different players have hoisted the Eddie Gottlieb Trophy, which is awarded to the top rookie every year. The honor was split on three occasions—between Dave Cowens and Geoff Petrie in 1971, Jason Kidd and Grant Hill in 1995 and Elton Brand and Steve Francis in 2000.

On 19 occasions the Gottlieb Trophy gone to the No. 1 overall pick, including each of the last two seasons and three of the last four. From a numbers standpoint, that gives Davis roughly a 30.2 percent chance of being the next ROY, just ahead of whichever young star is whisked off the board right behind him at No. 2 (23.8 percent, 15 out of 63).

Doing so in this particular draft class may be particularly difficult, though. Davis may be the most tantalizing prospect in this year's draft, but he's far from the only noteworthy talent. Florida's Bradley Beal, Kansas' Thomas Robinson, North Carolina's Harrison Barnes, Duke's Austin Rivers and Kentucky teammate Michael Kidd-Gilchrist are just some of the potentially-high-impact prospects in a particularly deep crop of rookies-to-be.

Davis might not even be the most NBA-ready of his peers. He's tall (6'11) and he's long (almost freakishly so, with a 7'6 wingspan), but at 222 pounds, he's still rail-thin, without the sort of lower-body strength needed to compete with grown men on a nightly basis in the NBA. In that respect, Davis might actually rank behind some of his fellow 2012 draftees, most notably Thomas Robinson.

That being said, Davis should and likely will have every opportunity to take the honor for himself with the Hornets. They've already cleared out a gaping hole in their front court for him to fill, with Chris Kaman and Carl Landry headed for free agency, and Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza officially members of the Washington Wizards. Even if New Orleans uses the No. 10 pick on another big man, that still leaves Davis with only three competitors at present, along with Gustavo Ayon and Jason Smith, for playing time up front.

The likely return of Eric Gordon won't affect that, though it cut down on Davis' touches on the offensive end.

Even so, there should be plenty of possessions to divvy up between those two (and whoever else winds up in New Orleans) to suspect that Davis averages double-figures in scoring and, perhaps, as many as, say, 15 points per game. If he can also rip down 10 or more rebounds per game, he'll have an even stronger case, given that 27 Rookies of the Year have posted double-doubles in their initial NBA seasons. Five more put up double-digit scoring numbers with at least nine rebounds per game, and five more pulled it off with eight.

Now, if Davis' shot-blocking skills translate to the pros as well as the Hornets hope, he could find himself even closer to the Holy Grail of the rookie scale. Seven ROYS (Robinson, Duncan, Webber, Shaquille O'Neal, Patrick Ewing, Pau Gasol and Ralph Sampson) have blocked two or more shots per game at the outset.

Assuming, then, that Davis registers season-long stats of 15 points, between eight and 10 rebounds, and north of two blocks, he'll be well on his way to sewing up that Rookie of the Year statue, unibrow and all.

And if his freshman numbers at UK (14.3 points, 10.0 rebounds, 4.7 blocks) are any indication, he should be able to do just that. He won't be able to dominate the opposition quite like he did in college, but the games will be longer, the opportunities for shots and rebounds will be greater and Davis figures to be significantly better as a player, if only because he'll be more mature and more comfortable in his rapidly-expanded frame.

Let's put the odds of Davis winning the ROY, then, at 30 percent—high enough that he's the clear favorite, but low enough to leave plenty of room for competition.

As for taking the Hornets to the playoffs...well, that's another story entirely. The Western Conference playoff picture was already remarkably crowded this past season, with the Houston Rockets and the Phoenix Suns finishing two and three games, respectively, behind the eighth-seeded Utah Jazz, who were a surprise entrant to begin with.

The top seven teams in the West figure to return to the postseason in 2013, albeit in a different order, and the Jazz certainly have enough talent to join them.

The Hornets, meanwhile, would have to climb out of the basement of the West and past seven teams in the standings just to nab the final playoff spot in their own conference. Surely, New Orleans will be better off this year, with Davis, a healthy EJ and whoever else GM Dell Demps tags to be on the team.

But will they be better than, say, the Minnesota Timberwolves? They were on a roll before Ricky Rubio tore his ACL and should find their stride once the Spaniard rejoins Kevin Love in the starting lineup.

Probably not, then.

How about the Rockets? They're reportedly on the prowl for Orlando Magic superstar center Dwight Howard, who probably eats kids like Davis for breakfast.

Probably not them, either.

Realistically speaking, the Hornets would be fortunate to finish among the top 12 teams in the Western Conference, with the Kings, the Warriors and the Suns (if they lose Steve Nash) tumbling into the cellar.

That's not to say that New Orleans is necessarily doomed to be left out of the NBA's Big Dance. By all accounts, Monty Williams is a fantastic coach who will get the most out of his players. And Demps should have the flexibility to stack the roster with plenty of quality parts for Williams to meld into an exciting team.

But, there will inevitably be growing pains, both in Davis' bones and on the floor. More importantly, circumstances beyond the Hornets' control (i.e. the depth of the West) will make it particularly difficult for them to leapfrog their way into the playoff picture. So, unless Davis and Gordon emerge as a young superstar tandem from Day 1, New Orleans' season seems all but destined to last "just" 82 games.

It would be somewhat generous, then to suggest that the Hornets have a 20 percent chance of making the playoffs in Year 1 of the Anthony Davis Era, though it's not exactly an unfair measure overall when considering that more than half of the teams in the West will, in fact, crack the postseason in 2013, as is the case every year.

If we simply multiply (in standard statistical fashion) Davis' chances of being the Rookie of the Year (30 percent) and the Hornets' chances of reaching the playoffs, we find that Davis has a six percent chance of etching his name alongside those six with which we began. That's a shade below the 9.5 percent historical odds, but given the depth of this draft class, Davis' particular skills, the Hornets' prospects for success and the steep competition in the West, suggesting that Davis will have a tougher time rounding up this particular double than the "average" No. 1 pick still seems reasonable.

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