NBA Playoffs 2012: Breaking Down the Conference Finals

We are down to just four teams remaining as we enter the NBA conference finals, but the drama of the upcoming slate of games extends beyond a shot to play for the title.

The dichotomy in style can be seen in the matchups in both the East and the West. With stars setting the tone for all four teams, each conference finals features a battle of the methodical old guard and the half-court offense against greener teams defined by their penchant for pushing the pace on offense.

In the Western Conference, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and the Oklahoma City Thunder are looking to run against the veteran San Antonio Spurs, led by the veteran example of Tim Duncan and Tony Parker.

Over in the Eastern Conference, the Big Three and Rajon Rondo are looking to exact vengeance for the Boston Celtics against LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and the Miami Heat team that ousted the Celtics in the 2011 Eastern Conference finals.

With four great teams succeeding in very different ways, what factors will determine who moves on to the NBA Finals?

Team Experience

In San Antonio, Tim Duncan is the heart and soul of yet another iteration of the consistently competitive Spurs. Since being selected with the first overall pick in the 1997 NBA draft, Duncan has played on into the postseason in each of his 15 seasons to date.

With Duncan setting the tone in the post, Tony Parker continues to man the point for the Spurs, as he has for the past 11 years. Both Duncan and Parker are averaging over 19 points per game through the first two rounds of the playoffs as the Spurs swept the Utah Jazz and the Los Angeles Clippers.

Factor in 10-year vet Manu Ginobili contributing 11.3 points per game as the Spurs' sixth man, and San Antonio has a tried and true formula for success that is still potent today.

While the Spurs have been a model of greatness for over a decade, the Oklahoma City Thunder are just getting started. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have been in the league for just nine years combined, and they have yet to advance to the NBA Finals in their careers.

Along with bench scorer James Harden, fresh off his 2012 Sixth Man of the Year award, the Thunder have three young guns who can put up points. On the defensive side of the ball, Serge Ibaka has been a force in the paint, leading the league in blocks en route to making the NBA All-Defensive First Team.

With none of these rising Thunder stars older than 23, Oklahoma City is solidifying its team identity with each game.

The Miami Heat, however, have not found themselves as a team quite yet. LeBron James and Dwyane Wade have both been in the league since 2003, but are only in their second season playing together since they and Chris Bosh teamed up in Miami.

So while the two Heat swingmen do lead the way with their stifling defense and ability to score at will, the team's fate begins and ends with them. When one of the Miami's superstars has an off night, as Wade did in Game 3 of the conference semifinals against the Indiana Pacers, the Heat go cold.

If the Celtics can limit James and Wade on offense, it will be interesting to see if the Heat can figure out a backup plan.

One saving grace for a Heat group lacking much experience together is that it has beaten this Boston Celtics team before. The veteran engine of this Boston squad is the same as it has been since 2008. Paul Pierce is the No. 1 scoring option, Kevin Garnett bullies people in the post, Ray Allen is a deadly threat from three-point range and the younger Rajon Rondo is a catalyst at both ends of the floor.

This Celtics team does show its age, as Allen has recently found himself coming off the bench. But while Boston may have dropped to fourth in the East this season, this is still a group that has won before and will lean on that experience.

Pace of the Game

Miami will try to counter the Celtic vets by running them into the ground. James and Wade are two of the best players ever, and when they are out in space in transition they are essentially impossible to stop.

While the Heat are comfortable letting their playmakers create in the half court, pushing the pace is right in Miami's wheelhouse and puts the pressure on Boston to keep up, and Adi Joseph of USA Today is doubtful they can do that.

While the Celtics do have some ability to run with the Heat—Rondo is capable of playing uptempo basketball with just about anyone in the league—they would much prefer to play it slow.

In two of Boston's three regular-season victories against Miami, the Celtics prevailed by holding the Heat to 72 points or fewer. The third win is a serious outlier, as Boston shot 60 percent from the field en route to 115 points.

If the Big Three and Rondo want another shot at a title before their window of opportunity closes, they will have to make sure the scores do not hit triple digits.

It is a testament to the adaptability of the Spurs that they are able to play uptempo with the best of them. Under Gregg Popovich's offensive system, the Spurs have primarily scored off of motion screens in the half court that have lent San Antonio the reputation of a being boring offensive team, unrightfully so according to ESPN's Kevin Arnovitz.

But with players like Parker, Ginobili, Gary Neal and Danny Green who can effectively run the floor in transition, the Spurs can hold their own in a fast-paced game as well.

This is fortunate for Duncan and Company, as the Thunder will definitely make the Spurs run to keep up. Led by the lightning-quick Westbrook, the Oklahoma City scorers are one of the most athletic groups in the league, and they use this to their advantage at every opportunity.

Durant and Westbrook are equally lethal in isolation, but like their superstar counterparts in Miami, the Oklahoma City tandem will get out in space to try to get their elder opponent away from its strong suit in their slow rhythm.

Supporting Cast

While the Spurs follow their star veterans' lead, they will only go as far as the unsung heroes on the team take them. It might not seem like sound logic to match up a rookie against one of the most potent scorers in the league, but Kawhi Leonard has earned the opportunity with his hard-nosed play on defense.

Journeyman shooting guard Danny Green evolved this season from a guy who had never started any of his 28 NBA games over two seasons to an effective rotation player after filling in for an injured Ginobili. With Boris Diaw and Stephen Jackson coming off the waiver wire and making solid contributions, San Antonio's role players will be their X-factor in taking on the Thunder.

Oklahoma City complements its world-class athletes with bulldog defenders, forcing opponents to counter both finesse and brute strength. Harden might play the most minutes at shooting guard, but Thabo Sefolosha starts the game for the Thunder, with his stifling length keeping his opponent out of rhythm to set the table for Harden to come in and make an impact.

In the paint, Kendrick Perkins and Nick Collison do not provide much of an offensive boost, but they are staunch post defenders who give Ibaka the opportunity to focus on blocking shots.

With the role players committed to locking down on defense, the Thunder scorers have the freedom to focus more on offense.

Unlike the two Western Conference teams, both the Heat and Celtics count their depth as a liability. Mario Chalmers has played well but is inconsistent at the point, and he will have to perform above and beyond his mediocre norm if he is to be the key to the series he claims he will be.

Mike Miller and Shane Battier are good for some veteran savvy and open threes from the corner, but both are growing more creepy with every minute on the court. In the paint, Miami has been relying on the talents of Joel Anthony and Ronny Turiaf—fine veterans good for a handful of minutes, but the fact they have been seeing significant playing time raises red flags.

For the Celtics, all of their depth issues can be summed up in the form of Greg Stiemsma. The 26-year-old rookie started seven games in his entire collegiate career before becoming a feel-good story in Boston this season, banging around in the paint for 14 minutes per game in the NBA.

Though his very modest statistics have actually improved in the postseason, The Boston Herald's Dan Dugan notes the Celtics' post presence off the bench struggled mightily before a 10-point performance in Game 5 against the Philadelphia 76ers.

Boston would find itself in a tough situation if Stiemsma were forced to match up with an elite post player.

Injury Issues

For Boston's sake, the Celtics might not have to face a major post presence in the conference finals due to Chris Bosh's strained abdominal. Suffered in Game 1 of the Heat's series against the Indiana Pacers, Bosh is still considered to be "out indefinitely," though ESPN's Michael Wallace reports Bosh participated in basketball activities on Sunday.

If the third member of Miami's Big Three is able to suit up against the Celtics, it would allow LeBron James to move back into his preferred small forward position and give the Heat the true power forward it has been lacking.

While Bosh might not be the physical defender that Anthony and Turiaf are, his return would be a major step towards the Heat dispatching Boston for a second straight season.

As for the Celtics, their injury woes have a similar impact on the team, but one that was much less expected. Prior to Ray Allen's ankle injury in the regular season, no one expected Avery Bradley to have a major impact on the Celtics. But Bradley flashed his defensive prowess when given the opportunity to start, which he retained when Allen returned to play.

Repeated shoulder injuries finally resulted in surgery last Friday, according to ESPN's Greg Payne. Without Bradley, Allen will face the unenviable task of guarding Dwyane Wade, and the fate of the Celtics may go with Allen's defense.

Out West, both teams take the court with more or less clean bills of health. The Thunder are without backup point guard Eric Maynor, but they have been for all but nine games this season, while no rotation players for the Spurs are currently injured. Conventional wisdom would dictate the older team would be more likely to break down later in the year, but the Spurs have been here before and know how to buck that trend.

There will be no excuses in the Western Conference finals; everything will be decided on the court.

Team Matchups

The Thunder and Spurs will both have to make it a priority to shut down the other team's star on offense. Kawhi Leonard is a capable defender, but he cannot be expected to shut down Durant himself, so the Spurs will have to make sure help defense is ready when Leonard needs it.

The same goes for Tim Duncan on the interior. That is the strength of the Thunder defense, but it is also the weakness of the Thunder offense. Every point the Spurs get in the paint is a point the Thunder are not equipped to match. Stopping Duncan is the easiest way to limit the damage in the post.

In the East, everyone knows what Miami will do. The possibility of Bosh playing is a wild card, but regardless, the offense will go through James and Wade with some corner threes sprinkled in. It is up to Boston to attempt to contain them.

Pierce will find himself matched up with James as usual, but Allen will likely struggle to stay in front of Wade. Don't be surprised if circumstances necessitate Rondo switching on to Wade if Allen is not up to snuff.

On offense for the Celtics, the key will be to maximize possessions. Rondo will have to distribute and Garnett and Brandon Bass will have to clean up on the boards. Given how the Heat can get points in bunches, they will be especially precious to the Celtics.

Heading into the conference finals, we do not know if the veterans will win out or if the new guard will overthrow them. We do not know if frenetic transition play or patience in the half court will prevail.

What we do know is there are four teams remaining, with some of the biggest stars in the league. The stars that rise above and beyond what is expected of them will earn a shot at a championship. Those who fall short will be watching the NBA Finals from their couches.