Buffalo Bills: Is This Team Close to Being a Contender in 2012?

The Buffalo Bills have the longest postseason drought in the NFL.  They haven't made the playoffs since 1999.

That was before smartphones, before Facebook, before Myspace, even before Friendster!  The last time the Bills made the playoffs, napster was about to become the cool new program that let high school and college kids download music for free. 

People still used home phones because not everyone carried a cell phone around with them, and if you wanted to get directions to go somewhere, you had to print directions off of mapquest rather than getting turn-by-turn instructions from your GPS. 

Yes, it's been quite a while since the Bills have continued to compete after the regular season ended.  Could this be the year that the Bills finally put an end to that drought? 

After a scorching hot start to the 2011 season that saw the Bills defeat the Patriots and get off to a 5-2 start, the Bills cooled off late in the season.  Many Bills fans wonder if we should expect to see the Bills play like they did to start the season, or the depressing collapse of the final nine games. 

Let's take a look, shall we? 

Improvements on the D-Line

Buffalo finished the season with 29 sacks, which tied them for 27th in the league. Tampa Bay finished dead last with only 23, while the league leaders (Minnesota and Philly) registered 50 sacks. 

The Bills gave opposing QB's more time to sit back in a comfortable pocket, waiting for a receiver to get open, than any team I can remember watching. This was obviously an issue that every Bills fan knew needed to be addressed. 

The only bright spot on the line was rookie defensive tackle Marcell Dareus. Although he was the only real threat to pressure the QB, and faced constant double-teams, he still managed to register 5.5 sacks. 

Kyle Williams was placed on IR for the season last year to have a bone spur removed from his heel. The bone spur had been there since college but had gotten steadily worse and was beginning to tear his Achilles tendon. During the 2010 season, Kyle Williams' campaign was very similar to Dareus' 2011, registering 5.5 sacks while facing constant double-teams.

Buddy Nix also decided that the Bills needed pressure coming off the edge, so he went out and signed the most coveted pass-rusher in free agency. 

Mario Williams is a beast who gives defensive coordinators nightmares! He has been the most important piece of the Houston Texans defense since being selected first overall in the 2006 draft, but he became cost-prohibitive after the Texans installed Wade Phillips' 3-4 defense that was able to generate pressure on the QB in Mario's absence. 

Not satisfied with adding one edge rusher, Nix also went out and signed Mark Anderson from rival New England Patriots. Anderson registered 10 sacks last season, although he didn't receive substantial playing time until the second half of the season after Andre Carter was injured. 

All four of these projected starters have shown the ability to dominate with little to no help around them. With all four of these guys on the defensive line, it will be hard to constantly double-team any one man, which should give each of them opportunities to win their one-on-one matchups and get to the opposing QB. 

Depth is always a concern when you're dealing with a team that has an injury history like the Bills, but luckily, these four guys aren't the only capable starters. 

Shawne Merriman still has a chance to transform back into "Lights Out,"—one of the most feared pass-rushers in the NFL. Chris Kelsay is a solid starter and team leader, and young guys like Torrell Troup and Alex Carrington have the potential to step up and give offensive coordinators nightmares. 

Linebackers

After the failed experiment to transition to a 3-4 defense, the Bills will head back to a base 4-3—the specialty of new defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt. Wannstedt has had mixed results as a head coach, but nobody can question the fact that he knows how to put a solid defense on the field. 

The talent on Buffalo's defensive line will force blockers to focus extra attention on them and allow the linebackers to get an unimpeded path to rack up tackles. 

Kelvin Sheppard is projected to be our starting MLB. Two years ago, he was the vocal and emotional leader of LSU's highly touted defense. Last year as a rookie, he quickly took starting duties away from veteran Andra Davis and looked very capable as an ILB. Expect him to improve on an impressive rookie performance.

On the weak side, veteran Nick Barnett will be starting. Barnett was cut by Green Bay due to a history of injuries. He was quickly snagged up by Buffalo and posted an impressive 130 tackles, three sacks and three interceptions in 16 injury-free games. 

Our strong-side LB is currently Kirk Morrison. Although he hasn't made headlines over the past few seasons, he was a tackling machine in Oakland's 4-3 defense. After joining the team late last season, expect him to play better after having a full offseason to familiarize himself with the new defense. 

Our linebackers are the one defensive group that I'm most concerned about—not because I don't think we have capable starters, but because I don't think we have enough depth if someone gets hurt. 

The LB position has suffered numerous injuries for the Bills in years past, and I still have nightmares of Keith Ellison trying to play LB in the NFL while tipping the scales around 220 pounds. I expect the Bills to add at least two LB's in the draft—one in the early rounds and one in the middle or late rounds.

Secondary

As I mentioned earlier, our defensive line could get no pressure on opposing QB's and gave them all day to find an open receiver, making our secondary look much worse than it actually was. 

Despite the lack of pressure on the QB, our defense still managed to rack up 20 INT's good for sixth in the NFL. Expect that number to improve this season when opposing QB's have to start rushing their passes.

As a rookie, Jairus Byrd battled through nagging groin injuries to post a league-leading nine interceptions in limited action. Since then, he has spent less time playing to his strength as a center fielder but has looked much better as a tackler and in run support. I expect Wannstedt to play to his strengths this season and let him roam freely to pick off passes from opposing QB's. 

George Wilson started off the 2011 season looking like a potential Pro Bowler until getting injured. When the former wide receiver was healthy, our entire defensive unit looked much better. 

He's the vocal, veteran leadership that helps keep all members of our secondary on the same page. We have retained backup Bryan Scott, who is a capable starter, but his value is more in his versatility as a hybrid safety/linebacker in nickel sets. 

Our cornerback contingent could be a boom-or-bust group. Terrence McGee and Drayton Florence are getting older, and it's hard to count on both of them to stay healthy for a full season. 

Rookie Aaron Williams from Texas is a large, physical corner, who looked more than capable of starting in the NFL. He should be one of our starters and a reliable pass defender this season.

Justin Rogers appears to have been one of Buddy Nix's great draft steals last year. Picked up as a seventh-round pick out of Richmond, he gradually climbed up the depth chart to overtake Leodis McKelvin and looked solid as a rookie, especially against Denver when he picked off Tim Tebow. 

Leodis McKelvin is the biggest boom-or-bust member of our secondary. The former first-round pick has not lived up to draft-day expectations. Although most Bills fans have already written him off, I'm optimistic about him. 

His first few seasons, he could run in a straight line with the best of them but got faked out of his shoes every time a receiver ran a double move. Seriously, it was like watching a dog take off in a full sprint when you pretend to throw a tennis ball and then eventually turns around thinking "where is it?"

Last season, he managed to stick to receivers like glue but couldn't quite find the ball when it was in the air. QB's would throw the ball in his direction no matter how tight he was to his receiver, and the receiver would always manage to make the catch. 

After several games of being picked on like most Steelers opponents pick on William Gay, Chan Gailey took him off defense and demoted him to special teams duties. As soon as that happened, it seemed like a fire was lit under his butt. 

As a gunner, he was lighting returners up and making tackles all over the field. As a return man, he was lethal. It was the type of reaction that Gailey was hoping for but never received, when he benched Maybin a year earlier. 

I think that McKelvin's pride was hurt after being benched, and he will spend the offseason training hard to make sure it never happens again. I think he'll finally turn into the player we were hoping for when we drafted him in the first round. 

O-Line

The Buffalo Bills allowed 23 sacks last season, the fewest in the NFL. Despite numerous injuries, new members and repeated shuffling, this group of cast-offs and misfits kept their QB upright and opened lanes for our running backs. 

The only time our O-line really struggled was after Eric Wood tore his ACL in Week 11 against the Cowboys and was placed on the IR. Andy Levitre started out the season looking like a Pro Bowl left guard and filled in admirably at left tackle when needed. 

When he tried to man the center position, however, he struggled with shotgun snaps and showed that he didn't quite have the unlimited versatility that Gailey and Bills fans were hoping for. 

Luckily, the offense soon realized that Kraig Urbik was a capable backup at center. The Bills now have a better feeling for who can do what on the O-line, and the young group has had another season to gel. 

The only question remains at left tackle, where every "analyst" with access to a mock draft thinks that Demetress Bell leaving Buffalo is going to result in constant pressure on Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Bell spent half of last season being injured, giving Chris Hairston plenty of playing time as a rookie. In most of his starts, he looked great, giving up very few sacks. Buddy Nix stated at the Bills recent draft luncheon that he feels the Bills can win with Hairston starting at left tackle.   

I completely agree with him. I expect the Bills to add some extra depth at the tackle position, but I think that they already have the starting lineup on their team.

Wide Receivers

Stevie Johnson just became the first Bills receiver to post back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. My greatest fear leading up to this offseason was that the Bills were going to let him leave via free agency. 

I've watched the Bills let Jabari Greer, Antoine Winfield, London Fletcher and Pat Williams leave the team via free agency over the past decade, so why not let Stevie walk, too? 

Nix has been stating since he arrived that you build a team through the draft, develop talent and retain your own guys. Luckily, this wasn't just lip service, and he managed to keep Stevie in Buffalo, so that Fitz will have his No. 1 target returning this season. 

David Nelson, the oversized, undrafted free agent from Florida has been a pleasant surprise by developing into a reliable slot receiver and a large body that's very difficult for CB's to defend. 

Unfortunately, the Bills don't have a proven deep threat who can take the top off a defense and force the opposing defensive coordinator to game plan against a receiver that isn't named Stevie Johnson. 

The Bills do have some talented receivers who might turn into studs. My personal favorite is Marcus Easley. Bills fans have become enamored by Notre Dame receiver Michael Floyd after he went to the combine and was measured at 6'3'', 220 lbs and ran a 4.47 40-yard dash. 

Apparently, most of them forgot that a few years ago, Easley was measured at 6'3", 210 lbs and ran a 4.46 40-yard dash. The man has made plays in preseason practices and in the one preseason game that he's been a part of.

However, due to a knee injury as a rookie and an officially undisclosed medical condition this past season that's since been resolved, he hasn't yet had a chance to prove himself.  Don't be surprised if he blows up this season like Stevie did a couple years ago. 

If Easley can't quite shake the injury bug, the coaching staff is high on Donald Jones.  Jones, like Nelson, was an undrafted free agent two years ago and is also a member of Buffalo's goon squad. He has showed some ability during his limited action and has a chance to improve in year No. 3. 

Look for the Bills to add competition to the No. 2 receiver spot across from Stevie in the upcoming draft somewhere in Rounds 2-4. 

Running Backs

The Bills have arguably the most talented backfield in the NFL.

Fred Jackson led all NFL running backs with 5.5 yards per carry, while Spiller finished just behind him at 5.4. They are also both very effective receivers coming out of the backfield, and Freddy is viewed as one of the best blockers at the RB position, while Spiller has improved greatly in this area. 

The knock on Freddy is that he's 31. Very few running backs are productive once they hit 30, and he's not going to keep it up much longer. Although I agree that your time as a successful running back in the NFL is limited, I think he'll have more time than most. 

Most NFL running backs are studs in high school. They carry the load for their team, leading to several Division 1 scholarships. They play three or four years in college, getting hit by large, athletic Division 1 defenders, before entering the NFL.

When Fred Jackson graduated high school, he was a 135-pound backup running back. This resulted in no scholarship offers and forced him to be a walk-on at Division III Coe College.  After college he bounced around the NFL Europe and the Arena Football League, where he played for the Sioux City Bandits. 

His body hasn't received the same type of punishment that most NFL running backs have sustained by the age of 31, which is why I'm confident that he's got one or two very productive years left. 

Like a fine wine, he's getting better with age. Coming into this season, he was a productive starter. Until he broke his leg, he was a consensus first-team Pro Bowler and was the AFC Offensive Player of the month for Pro Football Focus in October. 

I became excited about Spiller's abilities after the Week 2 game against the Raiders, when he managed 63 yards after carrying the ball only four times. His longest run that game was 26 yards, so he didn't just have one long run, every run was productive. 

When Jackson was placed on the IR, Spiller stepped in and picked up where Fred had left off. The first half of the Bills-Titans game was a dual between Spiller and Chris Johnson.  Unfortunately, the Bills fell behind on the scoreboard and stopped feeding the ball to Spiller in the second half.

Spiller still finished the game with 14 carries for 83 yards, even though he had a long TD run called back for a non-existent hold that Corey McIntyre allegedly committed. 

Expect both RB's to get a good number of carries, while Tashard Choice and Johnny White will see limited action when one of the top two backs is injured or needs a breather.    

Tight End

Scott Chandler was one of Buddy Nix's great finds after he was cut by the Cowboys during the 2010 season. 

After registering zero career TD's leading up to the 2011 season, he registered two in the opening game and four more throughout the year.  

He's not Rob Gronkowski or Antonio Gates. He's not extremely dangerous, but he is 6'7" and pretty hard to defend against or tackle. Expect him to build off of last season's success after former Bills great Pete Metzelaars was added to the coaching staff to help him improve.

Quarterback

Every Bills fan has heard the story by now, Ryan Fitzpatrick got off to a great start as one of the hottest QB's in the NFL to start the season, broke his ribs on a shot by London Fletcher in the seventh game of the season and then struggled and began throwing picks while trying to play through the pain. 

His performance may have suffered due to the broken ribs, or he may have just been going through a cold streak. Fitz has been known to be a streaky QB throughout his career.  However, I feel that he will improve in the 2012 season. 

David Lee was hired as the QB coach of the Buffalo Bills this season. David Lee was the former QB coach for the Miami Dolphins and is credited with bringing the wildcat to the NFL. 

Most Bills fans are already aware of that and expect to see a larger, more productive role from Brad Smith as a wildcat QB because of that. What many fans don't realize, is that he's also great at helping QB's improve their mechanics. 

Tony Romo came into the league as an undrafted free agent. Although Tony Romo's play has not always been stellar, he's having a much more successful career than most undrafted QB's will ever experience.   

Chad Pennington went to the Dolphins in 2008. He'd suffered several injuries and was known for having up-and-down seasons (sound like anyone we know?). Under David Lee's tutelage, Pennington enjoyed one of his most successful seasons, led the Dolphins to the playoffs and received the "Comeback Player of the Year" award.

The other problem Fitz had was trying to force the ball into tight windows when the Bills were playing from behind. With our improved defense, I don't see that occurring as often next season.

I expect the Bills be able to play with a lead more often so that they are able to feed Freddy and Spiller in the second half to grind out the clock.

Division Rivals

While the Bills are improving, most of the AFC East is getting worse. 

Obviously, the New England Patriots are still the team to beat until someone beats them.  They added a deep threat in Brandon Lloyd and will probably improve their defense in this years upcoming draft. 

The Miami Dolphins are a complete mess. They can't get the head coach or the QB they want, primarily because nobody wants to be anywhere near Stephen Ross. They gave Brandon Marshall a monster contract two years ago and then traded him away for next to nothing. 

They will also be switching to a new defensive scheme and a new offensive scheme, so expect some serious growing pains. 

The New York Jets are probably the most entertaining team in the NFL. Unfortunately, the entertainment comes more from what happens off the field than on it. Mark Sanchez knows how to make the news for his GQ photo shoots, eating hot dogs on the sideline and losing the respect of his own wide receivers. 

Rex Ryan makes headlines with his annual Super Bowl predictions, foot fetish and weight fluctuation that's known to range anywhere from "pretty fat" to "really fat."

As if there weren't enough issues in this locker room, they brought in Tim Tebow—a man who elicits more media attention than any other member of the NFL. Don't get me wrong, I respect the guy as a human being, and I feel bad for how scrutinized his life is, but he's the last thing the NY Jets' locker room needs. 

Sanchez has the most fragile ego of any QB in the NFL. As soon as he starts to struggle (which happens every year), fans will start calling for Tebow. That will cause Sanchez to have hurt feeling and play worse, which will split up the locker room (it is the most poorly managed locker room in the NFL), which will hurt Mark's feeling even more, resulting in a downward spiral. I don't know about you, but I can't wait to see it all play out!   

Final Prediction

I expect the Bills to win 10-12 games during the regular season, place second in the AFC East and earn a wild-card berth. They will split the series against the Patriots 1-1, but the Patriots will have a better regular-season record, winning 13 or 14 games. 

The Bills have a lot more of the pieces for a championship team than most people will give them credit for but need to continue developing their young talent to move forward. They also need to have another successful draft like they did last season, which will result in several players capable of starting this season.