Are the Blue Jays Now a Bigger Threat to the Yankees Than the Red Sox?

For the better part of the past 20 years, the American League East has been dominated by two teams—the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox. One or the other of these bitter rivals has won the division crown 14 of those 20 years. Only recently has another team—the Tampa Bay Rays—managed to capture the title twice in the past four seasons.

In 2012 things may be changing.

The Toronto Blue Jays have subtly rebuilt their team over the past few seasons and have emerged as a legitimate threat within the division. In fact, many of baseball's experts are predicting that Toronto will finish ahead of Boston in the standings when all is said and done in 2012.

The Yankees are the defending champions of the division and now may need to realize that their constant watchful eye on the enemies from Boston perhaps should refocus on the team from across the border.

A closer look at the Red Sox and Blue Jays may provide us with an answer as to who is the real threat to the Bronx Bombers in the division.

Infield

In comparing the Blue Jays to the Red Sox we will first look at the infield, position by position.

Catcher

The Red Sox throw a one-two punch of Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Kelly Shoppach behind the plate. While defensively they are adequate, offensively they are not. 

The Blue Jays counter with JP Arencibia who is not much of an offensive threat either.

EDGE - Tie

First Base

One of Boston's biggest acquisitions of the 2010 offseason was first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, and the 2011 season showed them it was well worth it as he led the league in hits and drove in 117 runs. At 30-years-of-age, he will be a fixture in "Beantown" for years to come.

The Blue Jays' Adam Lind took over first base in 2011 and hit 26 home runs while driving in 87. Over the past three seasons he has averaged 26 home runs and 91 RBI, securing the 28-year-old a spot in the heart of the Toronto lineup.

EDGE - BIG edge to Red Sox

Second Base

Perhaps the Red Sox' best player, Dustin Pedroia mans second base in Boston. He is a former Rookie of the Year and MVP, and is known for his gritty, all-out style of play. With a career .305 batting average and the backing of "Red Sox Nation," the 28-year-old will be a fixture in the lineup for years to come.

Kelly Johnson begins his first full-season with the Blue Jays after joining them in August.  In his short 33-game stint with Toronto, he hit .270, and has averaged 19 home runs over the course of his career. He provides them with a solid second baseman who has above average power.

EDGE - Red Sox

Third Base

Kevin Youkilis' career appears to be on the decline for the Red Sox. The 32-year-old is coming off a disappointing 2011 where he hit a career low .258 over 120 games for Boston. In fact, he hasn't played in more than 130 games since 2008, and hasn't hit more than 20 home runs since 2009. After eight games this season, it would seem that Youkilis has picked up where he left off in 2011, as he currently sits with a .200 average, and rides the pine with a strained groin.

The 22-year-old Brett Lawrie is one of the players that make up the future of the Toronto Blue Jays' franchise. In just 43 games last season, he hit nine home runs and drove in 25 while carrying a .293 batting average. Transpose those numbers over the course of a 162-game season and you have an MVP candidate at the hot corner for the Blue Jays.

EDGE - Blue Jays

Shortstop

The shortstop position has been an Achilles heel for the Boston Red Sox for several years now, and 2012 will be no different. 31-year-old Mike Aviles will play at short for the season and he brings with him mediocre stats. In his five years at the major-league level, Aviles has never played more than 110 games, and has a career .288 batting average. He has some speed (37 stolen bases in five years) and is an average fielder (.973 fielding percentage).

29-year-old Yunel Escobar will be the Blue Jay shortstop for his third season with the club. Like Aviles, he has a career .288 batting average with some speed (21 career stolen bases). His career fielding percentage is .975—nearly identical to his Boston counterpart.

EDGE - Tie

It would appear that Boston and Toronto have nearly equal infields with a slight edge going to the older Red Sox club.

Outfield

A look at the Red Sox and Blue Jays outfields reveals some very special talents on both sides of the coin.

Boston

The Red Sox outfield is anchored by 2011 MVP runner-up Jacoby Ellsbury. The 28-year-old hit .321 with 32 home runs and 105 RBI while swiping 38 bases. It was the breakout season that Red Sox Nation had hoped for from the talented center fielder, as he received an all-star selection, gold glove and silver slugger award. Unfortunately for Ellsbury, 2012 has not started with a continuation of 2011's success, as he suffered a separated shoulder on a play at second base and will be lost for up to six weeks in the early season.

31-year-old Cody Ross enters his ninth season in the major leagues. Having spent time with five different clubs prior to this latest stint with the Red Sox, the left fielder brings a career .261 batting average to the Boston lineup and averages a little more than 11 home runs per season—not exactly top-of-the-line outfield numbers for a position that the Red Sox have come to equate with great hitters (Yastrzemski, Greenwell, Ramirez, etc).

Ryan Sweeney begins his seventh year in major league baseball, and enters 2012 with his third team. The 27-year-old right fielder has shown promise as a hitter (.284 career average), but with little power (14 home runs in six-plus seasons).

Toronto

Jose Bautista enters 2012 coming off back-to-back seasons of leading the American League in home runs (hitting 54 in 2010 and 43 in 2011). Over that time he has driven in 247 runs, and has had a .612 slugging percentage. To say that he has been the heart of the Toronto order would be an understatement, and the Blue Jay right fielder looks to remain at or near the top of the American League in 2012.

Eric Thames mans left field for the Blue Jays. At 25, he has shown some power (hitting 12 home runs in 95 games in 2011) and minimal speed while hitting .262 last season.  Like Boston's Cody Ross, the young Thames isn't going to strike fear into opposing pitchers, but his upside is still being developed.

With Colby Rasmus, the Blue Jays have another 25-year-old outfielder whose promise is still being determined. Having come from the St. Louis Cardinals in a July trade, Rasmus will get his chance to prove to Toronto that he can be counted on in the lineup and in center field. With the Cards, Rasmus showed decent power (averaging close to 17 home runs per season) and poor plate discipline (over 100 strikeouts in back-to-back seasons) as he hit for a .259 average.

EDGE - slight advantage to Blue Jays

Starting Rotation

As the old saying goes "pitching wins championships," and both Toronto and Boston wonder if they have enough pitching to carry them past the Yankees in the AL East.

Boston Rotation

Jon Lester - He has won at least 15 games in each of the past four seasons and has a career 3.52 ERA. As an All-Star for the past two seasons, Lester is not only the unquestioned ace on the staff, but also one of the premiere pitchers in baseball.

Josh Beckett - Remember Brett Saberhagen? The Kansas City great seemed to challenge for a Cy Young every other year, and on the "off" years he was a less than desirable pitcher. Josh Beckett appears to be the second-coming of Brett Saberhagen in that sense. The chicken-loving, beer drinking hurler is coming off an All-Star year where he threw for a 2.91 ERA and went 13-7. Since 2001, in "odd" years Beckett's ERA has never been higher than 3.86, and in "even" years his ERA hasn't been lower than 3.79 (having posted 5.01, 4.03 and 5.78 ERAs over the last three "even" seasons). That does not bode well for 2012 and as of this publishing he sits at 1-1 with a 5.68 ERA.

Clay Buchholz - The 27-year-old was 17-7 with a 2.33 ERA in 2010, and the Red Sox are hoping he can give them those numbers again in 2012.

Felix Doubront - The Red Sox are giving a shot to this 24-year-old Venezuelan pitcher.  With a decent fastball and splitter, the southpaw has a high ceiling that Boston hopes he'll reach soon.

Daniel Bard - He is the Red Sox' version of the Yankees' Joba Chamberlain. Is he a starter or a reliever? 2012 opens with Bard as the fifth starter, but, early season failures in the bullpen may result in him being used to close out games. Only time will tell for the 27-year-old who had not started a game at the major league level until this season.

Toronto rotation

Ricky Romero - He is only in his fourth season pitching at the major-league level, but the 27-year-old has already established himself as the ace of the Toronto staff. In each of his first three seasons Romero has won at least 13 games, and has a career 3.59 ERA. He is quickly becoming one of the elite pitchers in the game.

Brandon Morrow - Like Romero, he is another 27-year-old that is continuing to improve from year to year. In 2011, Morrow led the American League in strikeouts per nine innings with a 10.2 rate. Over the past three seasons, practically every statistical category has improved for the Blue Jays pitcher—with the exception being ERA. Toronto hopes that stat will improve in 2012 as the other categories continue along their path.

Henderson Alvarez - This 22-year-old was given his first shot in the big leagues last season as he started 10 games and threw for a very impressive 3.53 ERA. Given that success, and a promising spring in 2012, Alvarez earned a spot in the Blue Jays' rotation. Many within the organization will be watching closely to see if he continues the trend established by Romero and Morrow in becoming a successful starter.

Kyle Drabek - The 24-year-old son of former major-leaguer Doug Drabek has not had a meteoric start to his career in Toronto—bringing a 5.41 ERA into the 2012 campaign.  This spring he impressed the Blue Jays and earned a spot in the starting rotation. Rated as the top pitching prospect in the organization, Drabek's ceiling is high and Toronto hopes he can realize that promise.

For now, Toronto is going with a four-man rotation and there has only been speculation as to who will be the fifth starter when one is needed.

EDGE - Based upon the promise of their young guns, Toronto gets the slight edge in rotation

Bullpen

Boston

The Red Sox bullpen is a collection of other teams' castoffs, with the likes of Alfredo Aceves (Yankees), Mark Melancon (Yankees and Astros) and Vincente Padilla (most recently Rangers and Dodgers) making up the majority of innings before reaching the closer—Andrew Bailey. The only problem is that Bailey is out until at least July after having surgery to repair ligaments in his thumb. 

The lack of a closer forces manager Bobby Valentine to mix and match his pitchers in an attempt to close out games, and early on in 2012 it has cost the Sox, as both Aceves and Melancon blew saves in back-to-back games. The problem will continue to rear its ugly head until their legitimate closer—Bailey—returns, or until they bring Daniel Bard out of the rotation and back into the closer role.

Toronto

With the exception of Casey Janssen, the Blue Jays 'pen is also a collection of former players from other teams around the league, and the majority of innings leading to the closer will go to the likes of Carlos Villanueva (Milwaukee), Darren Oliver (most recently the LA Angels and Texas Rangers), Janssen and Francisco Cordero (most recently from Cincinnati).

The Blue Jays' closer for 2012 is flame-throwing Sergio Santos, who came to Toronto via a trade in December with the White Sox. In 2011 Santos had 30 saves while sporting a 3.53 ERA for Chicago, and Toronto is banking on the 28-year-old improving on those numbers.

EDGE - Toronto

The Edge

After a closer examination of the key components of each team, it is clear that the Toronto Blue Jays show enough talent and promise to be able to overtake the Boston Red Sox in the American League East.

Whether they have done enough, or have enough promise to be able to pass the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees is yet to be seen, but they certainly have set themselves on the right track to be able to do so.

It is now in the hands of manager John Farrell to see that the promise of some of the young players, and the expectations of the established players is met. If he can do so, the Blue Jays will pose a bigger threat to the defending AL East champion Yankees than the Red Sox do.