2012 NBA Mock Draft: Predicting Each Lottery Pick's NBA Destiny?

There are four things you have to keep in mind when viewing this mock draft.

First, the draft order was the result of the NBA Lottery Mock Draft machine on ESPN with records on 4/3/2012. The NBA Lottery never pans out according to the odds, so this is the most realistic way to conduct a mock draft at this point.

Second, the picks are what I would do if I were the GM for each of these teams. It is absolutely not a prediction of what each current NBA GM will do. Many of them are idiots, and that is why I am using my years of successful analysis to predict the NBA destiny of each of the lottery picks in this year's draft based on the current and/or former player(s) they are most similar to if they reach their full potential.

Third, the 2012 NBA Draft is possibly the most overrated collection of talent I have ever seen. The 2011 NBA Draft was one of the most talent-light drafts I can remember. As a result, the 2012 NBA Draft has been mentally inflated in comparison by many out there.

Finally, you need to familiarize yourself with my belief in the "Tier System of NBA Drafting" to understand why I make the picks that I do. You can find my explanation for that here (see slides 8-13); http://bleacherreport.com/articles/723079-cleveland-cavs-2011-offseason-strategy12-draft-pick-trade-exception-scenarios.

1. Golden State Warriors

The Golden State Warriors select PF Anthony Davis from Kentucky.

I think the best player comparison is taking the best aspects of Marcus Camby and Keon Clark and combining them into one player. Marcus Camby was drafted second overall back when he was drafted, while Keon Clark went 13th overall when he was drafted. Camby was named the NBA Defensive Player of the Year once, made the All-Defensive First Team twice, made the All-Defensive Second Team twice and led the NBA in blocks four times.

Please consider that Camby never made a single All-Star team. Just like Anthony Davis, Camby played for John Callipari in college (UMass). Both have really slight frames that are not compatible with bulking up. Both have very limited offensive skills.

People touting Anthony Davis as a franchise savior are delusional in my opinion. He will be a very nice player for a long time barring injury. However, he will never be the best player on a championship team in the NBA. At best he could be the third best player on a championship team. Ideally he would be paired up with an elite true PG and a dynamic wingman. I think he could squeeze out an All-Star selection unlike Camby because he has the athleticism of Keon Clark, which makes him a slightly better prospect in the long term.

So why am I taking Anthony Davis when I am less than enamored with him? There are no Tier 2 players in this draft, and he fills a position of need. Golden State does not have a young athletic PF with promise to complement David Lee after trading away Ekpe Udoh to the Milwaukee Bucks. If someone comes calling with a good offer for his draft rights (feel free to leave proposals in the comments section), I would deal his rights in a heartbeat.

2. Washington Wizards (Soon to Be Bullets?)

The Washington Wizards select SG Jeremy Lamb from Connecticut.

I think the best player comparison is Rip Hamilton. Hamilton was drafted seventh overall back when he was drafted. He has made three All-Star teams and won one NBA Championship.

Both Hamilton and Lamb went to UConn and won an NCAA Championship while there. They both have a nice shooting stroke, were/are above average defenders but are not elite rebounders or passers for the SG position.

Lamb could be the third best player on a championship team. Ideally he would be paired up with an elite true PG and a dominant big man.

The Wizards need a SG to pair up with John Wall in the backcourt. I would not throw a fit if Bradley Beal were the selection here instead of Lamb. I only give Lamb the slight edge due to his more prototypical size.

3. Detroit Pistons

The Detroit Pistons select C Andre Drummond from Connecticut.

I think the best player comparison is Moses Malone. Please know this. That comparison only holds true if Drummond eliminates all of the questions about his motor, desire and continues to develop his low post game. Those are three big "ifs." Moses Malone is a Hall of Famer, so there is no need to list his accolades.

Both Drummond and Moses were man childs physically. Moses went straight from high school to the ABA back in the day.

Drummond could be the centerpiece of a championship team. Even if he never lives up to his enormous potential, he should stick in the league for years based on his size and athleticism alone. Just look at Kwame Brown.

Drafting Drummond allows the Pistons to put Greg Monroe at PF where he belongs. I know Monroe is listed as a C, but he is a PF playing out of position. If Drummond pans out, the pairing of him and Monroe could be awesome.

4. Charlotte Bobcats

The Charlotte Bobcats select SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist from Kentucky.

I think the best player comparison is Andre Iguodala. Iguodala was drafted ninth overall back when he was drafted. He has made one All-Star team and been named to one All-Defensive Second Team once as well.

Both MKG and Iguodala are excellent defenders at the SF position, above average scorers, good rebounders and passers but are below average three-point shooters.

MKG could be the third best player on a championship team. Ideally he would be paired up with an elite true PG and a dominant big man.

If I was starting a team from scratch and had the first overall pick in the 2012 NBA Draft, I would take MKG—or trade down for the right package to a team obsessed with Anthony Davis. I think MKG is the safest player in the entire draft, and it is not even close. Charlotte should take him No. 1 overall if they win the NBA lottery. They already have several athletic defensive minded PFs under contract in Tyrus Thomas and Bismack Biyombo (both former lottery picks). Taking Anthony Davis would be asinine for them. I rate both players as Tier 3 players, so you have to take MKG as he plays the position of need on the team.

5. New Orleans Hornets

The New Orleans Hornets select PG Kendall Marshall from North Carolina.

I think the best player comparison is Mark Jackson. Jackson was drafted 18th overall back when he was drafted. He made one All-Star team and currently has the third most assists in the history of the NBA.

Both Marshall and Jackson are average athletes and marginal scorers. However, they both possess the passing gene and have tremendous basketball IQ. Give me that type of PG any day of the week over the athletic score first PG that have begun to pollute the NBA. You do not win championships with that sort of player as the "best" player on the team. You can only win an NBA Championship with the PG as the best player on the team if he is an elite true PG like Magic Johnson or Isiah Thomas.

Marshall could be the third best player on a championship team. Ideally he would be paired up with a dynamic wingman and a dominant big man. His assist totals could be gaudy in the right situation.

The Hornets need a young PG at the helm after trading away Chris Paul to the Los Angeles Clippers.

6. Toronto Raptors

The Toronto Raptors select SF Terrence Jones from Kentucky.

I think the best player comparison is Lamar Odom. Odom was drafted fourth overall back when he was drafted. He has won a Sixth Man of the Year Award and is a two time NBA Champion.

Both players are left-handed, have excellent size, athleticism and handle for the SF position. They defend well and rebound at a high rate.

While Jones is capable of starting at SF and being the third best player on a championship team, he might best be served as one of the best sixth men in the league like Lamar Odom was on those title teams. His versatility to guard PFs for short periods of time adds value coming off the bench. Ideally he would be paired up with an elite true PG and a dominant big man.

If the Toronto Raptors do not draft a SF, their fans should run the GM out of town with torches and pitchforks.

7. Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cleveland Cavaliers select SG Bradley Beal from Florida.

I think the best player comparison is Eric Gordon. Gordon was drafted seventh overall back when he was drafted. He has had a promising career so far that has been interrupted by injuries several times.

Both Beal and Gordon are undersized SGs. They are both capable three-point shooters, defend well and rebound at a decent rate despite being undersized.

Beal could be the third best player on a championship team. Ideally he would be paired up with an elite true PG and a dominant big man.

The Cavs currently have the worst starting SG in the league—Anthony Parker. Passing over one of top SGs would be inexplicable and in tune with what Chris Grant typically does.

8. Portland Trailblazers

The Portland Trailblazers select C Meyers Leonard from Illinois.

I think the best player comparison is Andrew Bogut. Bogut was drafted first overall back when he was drafted. He has been named to one All-NBA Third Team.

Both Leonard and Bogut have ideal size, are above average passers, decent scorers, above average rebounders and possess above average athleticism.

Leonard could be the fourth best player on a championship team. He should be viewed as a great complementary piece.

Portland already has one of the best PF in the NBA with LaMarcus Aldridge. Leonard would be great complement to Aldridge. Blazer fans probably want to curse my name for sending them a C in the lottery. They will hope and pray he does not suffer numerous lower body injuries.

9. Sacramento Kings

The Sacramento Kings select PF Thomas Robinson from Kansas.

I think the best player comparison is a better version of Drew Gooden. Gooden was drafted fourth overall back when he was drafted.

Both Robinson and Gooden have a nice all around offensive game and are above average rebounders. They both possess above average athleticism at PF as well. By pure coincidence they both played at Kansas and wore No. 0. The difference is that Robinson shows less knucklehead tendencies than does Gooden.

Robinson could be the fourth best player on a championship team. He should be viewed as a great complementary piece.

Sacramento already has the talented but enigmatic C DeMarcus "Boogie" Cousins. Playing Robinson at PF next to Boogie could provide a nice complement for the Kings.

10. New Orleans Hornets

The New Orleans Hornets select SG Austin Rivers from Duke.

I think the best player comparison is Monta Ellis. Ellis slipped all the way into the second round back when he was drafted.

Both Rivers and Ellis are explosive one-on-one offensive players that are undersized at SG. They can light it up with high volume shooting, but do not bring a whole lot else to the table.

In a perfect world, Rivers would be the first man off the bench and a yearly candidate for Sixth Man of the Year. He would provide instant offense in a reserve role—and there is a lot of value in that. The problem is that forcing him into a starting role displays the negative aspects of his game too much.

New Orleans already has Eric Gordon as their starting SG, but he is going to be a restricted free agent this offseason. I would try to re-sign Gordon to form a nice backcourt with Kendall Marshall. Rivers coming off the bench in a sixth man role would provide an extremely young and exciting backcourt.

11. Portland Trailblazers

The Portland Trailblazers select SF Harrison Barnes from North Carolina.

I think the best player comparison is Keith Van Horn. Van Horn was drafted second overall back when he was drafted.

Both Barnes and Van Horn are good shooters with a high basketball IQ. However, they are both limited athletes as well. Neither has the first step quickness to consistently beat their man into the lane.

Barnes could be the fourth best player on a championship team. He should be viewed as a great complementary piece.

Portland could have used a PG more here, however, there was not another one worthy of a selection this high. Taking Barnes is a nice value pick here. He could be a nice option off the bench or allow the Blazers to use Batum off the bench.

12. Milwaukee Bucks

The Milwaukee Bucks select C Tyler Zeller from North Carolina.

I think the best player comparison is Chris Mihm if he had stayed healthy. Mihm was drafted seventh overall back when he was drafted and then dealt with countless injuries during his career.

Both Zeller and Mihm were decent athletes with a solid all around game. They could either be an average starting C in the NBA or at worst a really solid backup C.

Zeller could be the fifth best player on a championship team. He should be viewed as a decent complementary piece.

Milwaukee no longer has a C worth noting after trading Andrew Bogut away to Golden State. Zeller fills a major area of need.

13. Phoenix Suns

The Phoenix Suns select SG Terrence Ross from Washington.

I think the best player comparison is Courtney Lee. Lee was drafted 22nd overall back when he was drafted.

Both Ross and Lee are capable starters at SG due to their decent all around game.

Ross could be the fifth best player on a championship team. He should be viewed as a decent complementary piece.

Phoenix has no long term solutions at SG so Ross would be a nice addition to the weakest area of the team.

14. Utah Jazz

The Utah Jazz select SF Perry Jones III from Baylor.

I think the best player comparison is Tim Thomas. Thomas was drafted seventh overall back when he was drafted.

Both PJ3 and Thomas have PF height with a SF game and a propensity for wanting to drift outside and shoot jumpers. They both have an endless amount of talent but a questionable motor. Talented enough to stick around for years, but likely never makes a big splash.

PJ3 could be the third best player on a championship team, but is more likely to end up in a sixth man role. He should be viewed as a decent complementary piece with upside.

Utah has plenty of size and needs help on the wing or at PG. PJ3 is the best option at this point.