Washington Redskins 2012: Can the 'Skins Compete for the NFC East Crown?

Optimism is running rampant in the nation's capital these days. Even though the 2012 NFL draft is still weeks away, Washington Redskins fans everywhere are already predicting great things for the 'Skins in 2012. Some are even going so far as to predict that the Redskins will capture their first NFC East Championship since the 1999 season.

It is truly amazing how the thought of drafting a franchise quarterback has altered so many perceptions about the Redskins' chances in 2012.

However, are these thoughts realistic? Or are they just pipe dreams and fantasies fueled by the Redskins fans' unquenchable desire to be relevant again in the tough NFC East?

Conventional wisdom would indicate that it is not very realistic to expect a team that finished 5-11 in 2011 to be able to win a division in which the defending Super Bowl champion resides. Then again, the Redskins did beat the Super Bowl champions twice in 2011.

So, what is real? Can the Skins compete for the NFC East crown in 2012?

To win the NFC East, I figure a team will have to go 10-6 in 2012. Sure, 9-7 was good enough for the Giants to win the NFC East in 2011 and, as it turned out, was good enough to win the Super Bowl. However, most Eagles, Giants, Cowboys and Redskins fans would agree the 2011 regular season was a bit of an off year for the NFC East. It does not seem likely 9-7 will be good enough two years in a row.

If my theory is correct, the Redskins will have to double their win total from 2011 if they hope to compete for the NFC East Championship in 2012. Can they do that?

I think the best way to get a feel for that possibility is to look at three factors and see if there is enough potential room for improvement there for the Redskins to get five more wins than they were able to in 2011.

The offense

Initially, you have to look at the quarterback position. The Redskins are going to have Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III at quarterback at some point during the 2012 season. In all likelihood, it will be RG3.

RG3, by himself, will not translate into five additional wins for Washington. However, with RG3 at the helm, the Redskins can count on one to two additional wins. RG3 represents a fairly significant upgrade over Rex Grossman or John Beck. While he will certainly make mistakes, I do not see him throwing the crucial pick at the worst time, like Grossman, or standing around looking like a deer in headlights, as Beck did too often when he was starting.

It is really the rest of the offense that has to be examined to see if the additions made through free agency and what might come in the draft will translate into additional wins for the 'Skins.

The backfield should be solid with Roy Helu, Evan Royster and, possibly, Tim Hightower returning from injury.

The receiving corps has improved quite a bit over what the 'Skins had in 2011. Pierre Garcon was a very good pickup, with his good speed and good hands and will immediately give RG3 a deep threat. If Leonard Hankerson continues to progress like he was near the end of the season, he should emerge as a very good No. 2 receiver. Add Josh Morgan and Jabar Gaffney to the mix and the Redskins look to have upgraded themselves at wide receiver, never mind the fact that no one's really sure what will become of Santana Moss.

At tight end, the 'Skins look to be fine so long as Fred Davis can steer clear of any more drug-related issues and if Chris Cooley can come back from his injury.

The big question mark for the offense remains the offensive line. The Redskins have not addressed this issue through free agency yet so it has to be hoped that they do so via the draft. Still, if they stand pat and Jammal Brown and Kory Lichtensteiger can recover from their injuries, the other improvements the Redskins have made, and will make, should translate into some additional wins.

It is hard to say how many additional wins the offensive improvements will generate but, conservatively, with these improvements the 'Skins should be good for at least seven wins in 2012.

The defense

To get the other three wins the Redskins would need to compete for the NFC East Crown in 2012, we need to look at the other two factors. Let's start by looking at the defense.

The defensive line should be better in 2012 as Jarvis Jenkins, who showed a lot of potential in 2011 before he suffered a season-ending injury, will be returning. With Jenkins, Adam Carriker, Stephen Bowen and Barry Cofield manning the defensive line, there is good reason to be optimistic the progress made in 2011 will carry over to 2012.

The linebackers remain a bit of a question mostly because of London Fletcher's unknown status. There is a lot of potential with the Redskins' linebackers as Brian Orakpo, Ryan Kerrigan and Perry Riley are all young, explosive and very talented.

However, Fletcher is the straw that stirs the drink as far as the linebackers are concerned and, for that matter, the entire defense. His experience, intelligence and knowledge are huge assets for the Redskins. If he returns, the 'Skins should continue to make strides with improved play from their linebackers. If he does not return, however, the progress made last year could be stifled.

To compete for the NFC East title, the Redskins must maintain forward momentum. Any backwards momentum would be devastating.

Then there is the secondary. If there is one aspect of the Redskins that is very hard to gauge, this is it.

The cornerbacks look to be DeAngelo Hall and Josh Wilson. Both of these guys are great at times and, at other times, not so good at all.

The safeties are an even bigger question mark. Gone are Laron Landry and O.J. Atogwe; enter Brandon Meriweather and Cedric Griffin. They join up with Reed Doughty, who has been solid yet unspectacular for years, and Dejon Gomes, who showed a lot of promise last year and has a lot of potential.

Meriweather could be a great acquisition for the 'Skins or he could be yet another in a long line of poor free agency decisions.

Ditto for Griffin, who has had two ACL surgeries (one on each knee) and is probably a better fit as a cornerback than a safety.

As such, the defense should be improved in 2012, but by how much is hard to forecast.

Conservatively, the defensive improvements will lead to one additional win. So, after looking at two of the three factors, the Redskins should be a .500 team in 2012.

The schedule

We do not yet know the Redskins' exact schedule for 2012, but we do know their opponents and whether they will be playing them at FedEx Field or on the road.

Is the schedule favorable for the 'Skins? Will it allow them to squeeze out two more wins so that an NFC East Championship can be obtained?

The Redskins might have a last place schedule, but the big problem is that this year the NFC East plays the NFC South and the AFC North.

In 2011, the AFC North sent three teams to the playoffs. The Redskins will get the Ravens and Bengals at home. I do not see the 'Skins beating the Ravens and the Bengals are young, talented and hungry. Beating the Bengals at home is obviously something that has to happen if the 'Skins plan on competing for a divisional championship.

In general, the Redskins must be more successful at home in 2012 if any sort of playoff aspirations are to be had. The Redskins went 2-6 at FedEx Field last season. They need to reverse that record if they wish to sniff the NFC East penthouse in 2012.

It will not be easy. Aside from the usual home games against their NFC East rivals, and the games against the Ravens and Bengals, the rest of the Redskins 2012 home opponents are the Falcons, Panthers and Vikings. The Redskins should be able to handle the Vikings (although that did not work out so well in 2011) but the Falcons will pose a formidable challenge and the Panthers will likely be improved with Cam Newton in his second season.

As for their road games in 2012, aside from the NFC East teams, the Redskins will travel to New Orleans, Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Pittsburgh and Cleveland.

The games against the Rams and Browns will be filled with storylines, but those are two games the Redskins should win.

The games against the Saints and Bucs will be very interesting. The Saints are obviously in a bit of turmoil internally, but they still have a great deal of talent.

The Bucs made a lot of key acquisitions in free agency and should be improved, but that is a very winnable game for the 'Skins.

It may come down to the game in Pittsburgh as to whether the Redskins can challenge for the NFC East Championship. The Steelers are not rebuilding, but they are retooling. The Redskins might be able to win that game, but the odds would seem to be against them.

So, the 2012 schedule does not look to be that favorable to the Redskins. Nevertheless, one has to believe they can do better at home than 2-6 and can maybe steal a road win here and there.

I will speculate that the Redskins can pick up one additional win by virtue of their schedule in 2012.

The verdict

Once all of these factors are analyzed, I have the Redskins going 9-7 in 2012. I admit that might be a tad optimistic, but 8-8 is doable. The Redskins can compete for the NFC East Crown in 2012, but they will fall short. A Wild Card playoff berth is within reach, particularly if the team can go 9-7.

There will be progress made in Washington in 2012—not enough to win the NFC East, but good, solid progress that should have the Redskins back in the thick of the playoff chase in 2012.