San Antonio Spurs: What Are This Season's Championship Odds?
The San Antonio Spurs have proven beyond a shadow of a doubt they still deserve the "contender" label reserved for NBA elite.
Just how much of a contender these Spurs are remains to be seen.
However, if key regular season match-ups are any indication of what Gregg Popovich's club can do, San Antonio's championship odds are as good as any team in the West. The Spurs have won two of their three meetings with the West-leading Oklahoma City Thunder, by 11 and nine points respectively. They've also gotten the best of the Clippers in two of three meetings.
The most satisfying statement of all, though, may be San Antonio's 3-0 record against the Memphis Grizzlies, who are currently holding on to the fourth seed in the Western Conference only a few months after dismissing the wounded Silver and Black from the playoffs.
The only real blot on San Antonio's record against Western Conference contenders is a 1-2 record against the Mavericks, but those losses come with a couple of caveats.
The first was a one-point overtime loss in which Pop rested his starters down the stretch of a heroic comeback by a bench unit led by Gary Neal, Tiago Splitter and Danny Green. The second came a night after the Spurs took the Thunder down in convincing fashion—the legs consistently failing to close out on Jason Kidd and Dirk Nowitzki might have been a tad heavy.
Popovich might call these excuses, but they're also facts. Here's another fact: the Spurs upended Dallas by 22 in the teams' first meeting of the season.
Given San Antonio's depth, and given an opportunity to comfortably integrate Stephen Jackson into the rotation, you have to like the Spurs' chances in a series against the Mavericks.
There does remain one test that San Antonio has yet to pass—a final exam if you will.
The Spurs have yet to play the Los Angeles Lakers this season, and they're set to do so—three times no less—come April.
To be sure, the trio of throw-downs will be a valuable barometer for both teams. Both will be vying for seeding and home-court advantage in the playoffs. Both will be hitting their strides with the infusion of talent acquired at the trade deadline—Ramon Sessions playing point for Los Angeles and Stephen Jackson manning the wing with San Antonio.
Bragging rights aside, these games will matter.
They will also speak volumes about how much these two storied dynasties have left in the tank. Each features a blend of tested veterans and promising youth, and each is likely to view this season as one of a precious few remaining opportunities to claim another title.
Were the playoffs to start today, the Spurs would be set to hit the Lakers in the second round if the two teams made it that far. If San Antonio can spread the floor against Los Angeles, and if its roster of sharpshooters gets hot at the right time, you have to like its odds.
What happens next is anyone's guess. The Spurs have only played Chicago and Miami once this season, and their next opportunity won't come until the NBA Finals. Neither of those contests went particularly well for Tony Parker and company—though, for the record, Many Ginobili was MIA for both games.
This is where optimism must take a sobered backseat to reality.
Chicago's depth and defensive acuity are second to none. Miami's athleticism and fast-break prowess could become a monumental headache for San Antonio.
Try as one may to forget these...shall we say "challenges," no amount of championship experience or feel-good "Go Spurs! Go!" vibes change the daunting task that is competing with the Miami Heat or Chicago Bulls.
Still, a series against either team is less of a foregone conclusion than many pundits would have you think.
Miami is an injury or mental collapse away from becoming an undeniably mortal opponent. This team may be better than last year's iteration, but LeBron James has yet to look like LeBron James for the duration of an NBA Finals series. Ever the image-conscious superstar, surely a quiet voice of doubt lurks in his wounded psyche.
And, as brilliant as Miami has looked for most of the year, we've also seen this team revert to stagnant, isolation-heavy half-court sets. We've even seen this team lose to a Bulls squad led by third-string point guard John Lucas.
Meanwhile, Chicago looks to be very much like the Spurs of the East—a smart, deep, well-coached club that shares the ball and plays the game the way it was meant to be played. The Bulls have neither a significant size advantage over San Antonio nor Miami's freakish athletic ability.
In short, this would be as evenly matched a series as can be imagined, a series seemingly destined to happen. With the media fascination and MVP adoration centered upon LeBron's Heat and Kevin Durant's Thunder, don't be surprised to see a less heralded event of less epic proportions.
Don't be surprised to see the Spurs welcome Derrick Rose to his first NBA Finals only to show him how those Finals are won.
