Miami Heat: Ranking Obstacles to LeBron James, the Heatles' NBA Finals Chances

Based on John Hollinger's playoff odds, the Miami Heat have a 36.1 percent chance of winning the NBA title this year. That's the best chance of any team in the NBA. 

That's a long way from a 100 percent chance, though. There's still a 63.9 percent chance they don't win, at least statistically speaking. 

There are still some teams who could challenge them, or even beat them in a seven-game series. There are still other events which could seriously hamper their opportunity to win it all as well. 

Here are the top five obstacles to the Heat winning the NBA Finals this year. 

The Field

In 2007, the Dallas Mavericks were coming off the loss to the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals. They whipped the league in the regular season, racking up 67 wins in the process. They were facing the Golden State Warriors in the first round, whom no one gave a chance. 

In one of the greatest upsets in the history of the league, the Warriors beat the Mavericks in the first round. The Mavericks didn't make it back to the finals until last year. 

It just goes to show that you can never count out the field. There is always a chance that there will be come team that "sucker punches" the Heat coming out of the gate in the first round.

Before they know it, they'll be down two games in the opening round and just never catch up.

Yes, it's highly unlikely. Maybe the Boston Celtics pull off one last hurrah. Maybe the Philadelphia 76ers finally pull it together facing the Heat. Maybe the New York Knicks star power matches Miami's own. Maybe they just play Orlando and Dwight Howard has the series of a lifetime. 

There's little chance anyone in the East threatens the Heat before they get to the Conference Finals, but there is a little chance. 

Dallas Mavericks

Last season, the Dallas Mavericks, led by Dirk Nowitzki, beat the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals. It's hard to preclude them from doing the same thing again. 

Granted, they no longer have Tyson Chandler. However, they do still have Dirk Nowitzki, whom the Heat had absolutely no answer for down the stretch. They also have Shawn Marion, who did an extremely underrated job of defending LeBron James in the finals. 

LeBron James didn't just "disappear." He was guarded, and he was guarded extremely well. 

In short, you simply can't write off the reigning NBA Champions entirely. They're going to be a threat if they play the Heat in the finals. 

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Oklahoma City Thunder are the only team that has an offense that can match the Miami Heat's and their dynamic duo is almost as impressive. They can certainly run with the Miami Heat and keep up with them in a scoring race.

However, the defense that Miami has is much better. The Thunder area only 13th in defensive rating. They've managed some comebacks late in fourth quarters by turning up the defensive effort and getting stops late in games, but whether that's going to work against a high-caliber offense like Miami's is another question. 

The Thunder have a great offense, but I have trouble proclaiming a team that doesn't play 48 minutes of defense a contender. Only twice in NBA history—the 2001 Lakers and the 1995 Rockets—has a team not finished top 10 in defensive rating and won a title. 

Oklahoma City isn't going to be the third. 

Chicago Bulls

No team in the NBA has given the "Big Three" version of the Heat more trouble than the Chicago Bulls. Since the Big Three have come together, the teams have played nine times. The total game split is 5-4 in favor of the Heat.

The net point difference over those nine game is a grand total of seven points, making the average margin of victory 0.7 points per game.

The Heat have the right to boast for now, but no team in the NBA presents a greater challenge to the Heat's chances of wining a title this year than the Bulls. The inevitable clash of these two teams in the Eastern Conference Finals is absolute must-see TV.  

Injuries

The biggest thing that could be an obstacle to the Miami Heat's chance of winning a championship would be injury. If they lose LeBron James, they suddenly become a team that is not only beatable, they are inferior to Chicago and Oklahoma City. 

Even an injury to Chris Bosh could strike a major blow to the Heat's chances of winning it all this year. They have shown the ability to work around the loss of Wade, but against teams that are long inside, they are susceptible to longer teams like Chicago if they don't have Bosh. 

Chicago is going to be a big enough threat to the Heat if they are healthy, though the Heat would remain the favorites. Without Bosh or James, that would change.