Gauging the Flight Risk for New York Jets' 2012 Free Agents

The Jets face a number of difficult decisions as the Rex Ryan era reaches a crossroads in the 2012 offseason.  Mike Tannenbaum has a number of holes to fill across the entire roster and the Jets currently have little cap room to do so.  

The one bit of good news for Tannenbaum is that aside from Sione Pouha, every player in the Jets free agent class is either easily replaceable or a veteran who will be easy to jettison as the team tries to get younger and faster.

The following slideshow takes a look at the "flight risk" of every free agent the Jets have in 2012 and uses a three-tier rating system to determine the likelihood of each player's departure.  Players are rated from 1-10 with a "one" meaning they are least likely to depart and a "ten" meaning they are most likely to leave. 

The ratings system breakdown:

Low Flight Risk (1-3)

Medium Flight Risk (4-7)

High Flight Risk (8-10)

Restricted Free Agents

Matt Mulligan (High Risk 9)

Matt Mulligan did more damage to his own team in less playing time than any Jet in recent memory.  Mulligan was a false start waiting to happen and his "pass blocking" often left Mark Sanchez running for his life.  TV cameras caught multiple altercations between Mulligan and his teammates throughout the season.  Let's just say that other players weren't clamoring in Mulligan's defense to break them up.

Jamaal Westerman (Medium Risk 5)

A local product from Rutgers, Jamaal Westerman was the darling of the Jets internet community as he put together another strong preseason camp in 2011.  Jets fans hoped he would be the situational pass rusher the team has sorely lacked during the Rex Ryan era.  Westerman showed flashes of promise while playing the entire 2011 season with a groin injury.  It would be interesting to see what he could do when entirely healthy, but his skill set may be too similar to Aaron Maybin's to have both on the roster. 

Marquice Cole (Low Risk 2)

If special teams coach Mike Westhoff has his way, Marquice Cole will be the first free agent the Jets re-sign.  Cole's work as a gunner has been essential to the Jets solid punt coverage and his play on kickoffs has been strong as well.  Also boosting Cole's profile is that he has improved enough on defense that he found his way into the secondary for 51 snaps on defense last season.  If the price is right, figure on Cole to be back in 2012.

Aaron Maybin (Low Risk 1)

Sources have been reporting that the Jets will place an original-round tender on Aaron Maybin, essentially clinching his return to the Jets in 2012.  If another team signed Maybin, the Jets would be awarded a first-round pick as compensation.  While Maybin was one of the feel-good stories of the 2011 Jets, it is unlikely any team will give up their first-round pick to sign a linebacker who had just 11 tackles all season.  

Plaxico Burress

Plaxico Burress (High Risk 10)

Plaxico Burress provided Mark Sanchez a big target who knew how to produce in the red zone.

His eight touchdowns led all Jet receivers and he was a huge factor in the Jets improved red zone production. Burress was also an exemplary citizen who avoided any off-field headlines for the entire season.

While that was all nice, Burress will not be a Jet in 2012.

His postseason comments about his Jets tenure have been terse and there have already been whispers about his desire to play in Philadelphia. On top of that, the Jets need to get younger and faster across the roster and Burress won't help them do either.

They have already re-signed developing receiver Patrick Turner and they might have some receiving options in the NFL draft.

Jets fans should thank Burress for some clutch touchdowns and solid citizenship in 2011 and then just move on.

LaDainian Tomlinson

LaDainian Tomlinson (High Risk 10)

While LaDainian Tomlinson's New York detour on the way to the Hall of Fame didn't produce a Super Bowl, he did have a productive two-year stint as a member of the Jets.

In 2010, his numbers increased in almost every significant category, and he was a savior in the backfield as he took on a larger role than was expected. His 219 carries and 914 yards led the squad and helped the Jets to the fourth-highest rushing total in the NFL.

His production was down in 2011 as Shonn Greene took on a bulk of the carries and Joe McKnight emerged as a viable option.

However, Tomlinson was one of the most well-respected veterans in a locker room that unraveled as the season progressed.

While Tomlinson's post-season comments weren't damning, they weren't exactly a ringing endorsement of the Jets situation either. Tomlinson has already hinted at retiring and said the only way he'd come back is to make one final run at a Super Bowl.

He expressed his sentiments honestly after the season and it sounded like he was convinced the Jets were far from being on the brink of a Super Bowl. Couple that with the Jets desire to gain speed and youth, and Tomlinson and the Jets will have a mutual parting of ways heading into 2012.

Kevin O'Connell

Kevin O'Connell (High Risk 10)

Even if you were the most maniacal Jets fan, you probably wouldn't even recognize Kevin O'Connell if he was sitting at your kitchen table.

He hasn't thrown an NFL pass since he was a Patriot in 2008 and has served little purpose in his two stints as a Jet.

With a likely makeover of the Jets quarterback situation on the horizon, O'Connell will have to find another team who will bring him in with the sole purpose of playing the fourth quarter in preseason games. 

Mark Brunell

Mark Brunell (High Risk 9)

Rex Ryan has already stated that the Jets quarterback meeting room will look different in 2012 and most likely, that means the end of Mark Brunell's Jets career.

However, the 41-year old quarterback has said he wants to continue playing.

Whether its his burning desire to get to another Super Bowl or his perilous financial situation, Brunell will most likely have to look elsewhere for a job.

There are a couple of minor factors that are keeping Brunell's Jets career hanging by a string though.

First, his relationship with Sanchez as a mentor has been great and in what could likely be the most pivotal year of Sanchez's career, having Brunell around can really help, especially with a new offensive coordinator.

Also, after promising rookie Greg McElroy popped off at the mouth after the season, his status on the roster is tenuous at best.

The only way that Brunell ends up on the Jets is if they decide to part ways with McElroy, demote Brunell to third-string and bring in a veteran who can legitimately push Sanchez or fill in if Sanchez is injured.

Brunell is neither a credible threat to Sanchez's job nor is he capable of winning games in the NFL. It's highly unlikely that he will wear the green and white again, but there still may be the slimmest of chances.

Robert Turner

Robert Turner (High Risk 8)

Robert Turner's status may have been sealed in early February when the Jets inexplicably decided to guarantee Wayne Hunter's $2.45 million dollar 2012 base salary.  

With Hunter's atrocious play, the lack of development from Vladimir Ducasse and Matt Slauson's extensive shoulder surgery, the Jets simply cannot risk giving out a contract to a career backup coming off a broken leg.

Turner's upside is his versatility.  If J.J. Watt didn't come crashing into his leg in the Jets preseason opener in 2011, Turner could have not only kept Hunter off the field, but also could have filled in for Nick Mangold at center when he went down with an ankle injury.  

Turner's best role is as a very good, versatile backup; a luxury any team would love to have.

But that's just what Turner is: a luxury.

If the Jets had a right tackle who could be counted on, Mike Tannenbaum could take a chance on Turner as a backup.  However, if Turner isn't the player that he once was and Hunter continues to be a hazard to everyone's health, the Jets offensive line would be as bad in 2012 as it was in 2011.

Simply put, the Jets need more sure things on the offensive line.

There will be interest around the league for Turner, who also brings toughness and a mean streak with his versatility.  

The Jets will be better off taking a chance on a lineman in the draft who could either learn the ropes as a backup or leapfrog Ducasse and Hunter on the depth chart.

Jim Leonhard

Jim Leonhard (Medium Risk 7)

It might be an unfortunate reality, but Jim Leonhard's Jets tenure might end up being remembered mostly for his two season-ending injuries.

That would be a shame.

The deep middle of the Jets' secondary has been far from a strong point during Rex Ryan's tenure, but that does not totally fall on Leonhard's shoulders.

To see Leonhard's value, take a look at what happened when he was removed from the secondary. The two games played immediately after his injuries in 2010 and 2011 were embarrassing losses to New England and Philadelphia; games in which the defense looked totally clueless.

The Jets regular season record without Leonhard is just 2-6.

The Jets may be eyeing a total refurbishment of their safety position in 2012 and were linked to Alabama safety Mark Barron in numerous mock drafts before his injury.

Leonhard has been vehement about returning at full strength in 2012 and while the odds are against that happening on the Jets, there is still a chance.

Even after D'Brickashaw Ferguson restructured his contract to free up cap room, the Jets are still tight up against the salary cap. With questions about Leonhard's health, he won't have many big offers out on the table. If league-wide interest is low and he settles for a minimal contract, there is a chance the Jets could keep Leonhard in a low-risk scenario.

Bryan Thomas

Bryan Thomas (Medium Risk 7)

After 10 years of service in the green and white, Bryan Thomas probably deserves a better ending to a solid Jets career.

It is pretty common knowledge that the Jets are looking to improve their pass rush, and they aren't going to do that by re-signing a 33 year old linebacker coming off a season lost to a torn Achilles tendon.

The Jets desperately need to get younger and faster on defense and upgrading the linebacker position is one of the team's top priorities.

Bleacher Report's Matt Miller's latest mock draft is one of many that have projected the Jets to take Alabama outside linebacker Courtney Upshaw.  If that happens, it will provide the Jets an immediate infusion of energy on the outside and most likely end Thomas' Jets career.

Thomas' 2011 salary was $3.2 million and if he has any hope of returning to the Jets, it cannot be at a salary anywhere near that.

About the only thing Thomas has going for him is that he is a high-character player on a team that desperately needs them.  

However, if he was to return to the Jets, it would have to be as a role player with a significant salary cut.

Brodney Pool

Brodney Pool (Medium Risk 6)

Brodney Pool's status on the Jets roster probably isn't one of the things keeping Mike Tannenbaum awake at night.

Pool did a serviceable job in the Jets secondary in 2011, but didn't provide anything spectacular.  He started six games for the team and played a total of 561 snaps.  Both totals were about the same as Kyle Wilson.

The chance of a return for Pool is hard to figure because it largely depends on the Jets draft and the status of Eric Smith and Jim Leonhard. 

If the Jets part ways with both Leonhard and Smith, which is entirely possible, Pool could be brought back to provide continuity.  If the Jets decide to go with a total revamp of the safety position through the draft and free agency, Pool could quickly become an afterthought.

Either way, the seven-year veteran will probably have to go through the same process as he did last year when he had to wait until other situations sorted themselves out before signing with the Jets in August.

Pool's status could go either way.  While he would be easy to replace and could be the victim of a youth movement, he could also provide veteran leadership at a cheap price.

Nick Folk

Nick Folk (Medium Risk 5)

Ever since John Hall's six-year career ended in 2002, the Jets have had a revolving door at the kicker position.

The team has followed a pattern of bringing in average, unspectacular veterans, letting them kick for a couple of seasons, then repeating the process. Like Jay Feely and Doug Brien before him, Nick Folk now finds himself in the same position.

Folk hit just 76 percent of his kicks over the past two seasons, which was on the low end of the spectrum in the NFL. He was a little more consistent in the postseason and had his share of clutch kicks, but this move will come down to money.

The Jets signed Folk on the cheap after a total meltdown in Dallas in 2009 and were able to resurrect his career. Rex Ryan has defended Folk throughout his tenure and if Folk is willing to return at his 2011 salary of $545,000, the team would probably have him.

However, if Folk is looking for a raise and has any takers in free agency, expect the Jets to let him walk in favor of a rookie or yet another kicking retread.

Donald Strickland

Donald Strickland (Low Risk 4)

With so many areas that need improvement and so little cap room, upgrading the cornerback position is at the bottom of the Jets offseason to-do list.

Donald Strickland is the prototypical NFL journeyman, having played for five teams during his 11-year career. He has been a consummate veteran and has been a solid presence in the secondary for the Jets.

Strickland seems to have found a home in Rex Ryan's cornerback-friendly system and has even shown an ability to cover tight ends at times. Strickland has done just enough to show that he is an adequate defender but still hasn't elevated himself to land on the radar of teams looking for a starting corner.

That could spell a return to the Jets in 2012.

If Strickland is brought back, it will be on a minimal contract that is close to the $525,000 he made in 2011. As an average fourth cornerback, he shouldn't expect that much more from someone else anyway.

Strickland played 329 snaps in 2011, a little more than half of the totals of Brodney Pool and Kyle Wilson. If he is fine in that role again at a similar salary, expect Ryan to want him back as the Jets look to keep their strongest unit intact.

Sione Pouha

Sione Pouha (Low Risk 3)

As a near-Pro Bowl run-stuffer playing defensive tackle in Rex Ryan's 3-4 defense, Sione Pouha is an essential part of the New York Jets.

He is the only major free agent on the squad and has emerged as one of the top run-stopping defensive tackles in the NFL after following a non-traditional path into professional football.

On the surface, it would appear that re-signing Pouha would be just a formality, but there are some scenarios where Pouha's Jets career could end.

The main obstacle in working a deal for Pouha is the salary cap. Defensive tackles who play the run as well as Pouha are a big commodity in the NFL and there is always the chance that a desperate team will throw out an offer the Jets just can't match.

According to Jenny Vrentas, the Jets are unlikely to franchise Pouha, instead opting for a multi-year deal that would be more cap-friendly.  

Another factor that is hard to figure is Pouha's age.  A defensive lineman who is only now starting to emerge as a 33 year old usually isn't a candidate for a multi-year deal.  However, Pouha didn't start his NFL career until he was 26 years old and has relatively low-mileage on his body.

While there are too many factors to call Pouha's return to the Jets a slam dunk, it seems that both sides will be able to work out the details that will allow Pouha to return and finish his career with the Jets.